Re: I think I finally learning
 

Scotty,

You're giving 3/6 opponents way too much credit. It doesn't matter to them if they're holding AT and they may be dominated and don't have odds to the gutshot since it'll probably be split. They're seeing the river.

At the same time, your analysis is a little off. Against a pocket pair, they're drawing to 7-10 outs, and it's not THAT rare that they're drawing to 10. I'm assuming OP is playing standard 2+2 numbers, so his 3-bet range is pretty wide. If villain has AQ-AT, he has 10 outs a decent amount of the time.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

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The pot is almost 5bbs, thats a pretty decent sized pot

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But you're almost always investing 2 bets to win it. And since it's a decent size pot, A high's are more likely to call down.

You also get popped some of the time of the turn, too. That's important to note.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I dont like the 3bet preflop because we are out of position.
I just call and very probably just give up on the flop.

As you 3bet I think it is best to just give up on the turn. On the river I think it is pretty close between c/f and b/f. I honestly don`t think that an ace high that made it to the river will give up very often on a board like this.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I just call preflop. I guess raising might be better if the limper is known to fold for two more and the button can fold A-high on the flop or turn.

I think your riverbet is fine, there are alot of draws you beat and he may folds Axhh. I think he will call with nonheart aces though, why else call the turn ?

Against some players I valuebet AJ here and do get called by worse Aces.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Axhh probably raises the flop.

I think if he's going to call non-heart aces, he's probably going to call heart aces, too.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Dont you think he will be more likely to call the turn because he thinks he is drawing if he holds Axhh ? than AJo ?

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Yes. Logically speaking though, if he's calling the river with AJo, he's calling with AsJs after his flush draw busted, too. That's all.

And like I said, I think he has non-heart aces way more since an Ace high flush draw will almost always raise the flop.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

Looks good to me. You will fold many aces, plus an occasional ragged 2 or 3 from weak tight opponents.

I didn't read your post from a couple weeks ago but I probably don't bet most A's here. Since the button raised PF, presumably you'd only arrive at the river with an ace you were confident showing down against another A, is my thinking.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I like it. 3bet represents AK or a big pair to most of these guys. Unlikely he connected with the flop with anything other than a flush draw.
Overpair would raise the flop here more often than not. So he's either drawing to overcards or the flush. Set raises the turn. River card didn't help him at all.
Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here > 13% of the time to be +EV.
nh.

Re: I think I finally learning
 

I still don't get why everyone is ignoring the turn. Just because a river bet is +EV in and of itself, that doesn't mean that turn + river is good. It's way more interesting when you analyze the whole hand than when you come out and say
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Betting the river only needs to fold Ax here > 13% of the time to be +EV.


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