Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can both put him on a "good hand" on the flop, which I don't consider a small overpair to be, while putting him on a different holding as the hand progresses.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was what I was getting at. If you don't adjust your reads as the hand progresses you'll get yourself in trouble. Don't get married to a hand, or a read.
On the flop a tight player bet in a multiway flop on an all low card flop. Right there I want to maximize value from a set because it's very likely he has that hand. You made a just under pot raise and the villian calls. Now it really doesn't look he has a set, wouldn't a set 3bet here to insure action from two pair, and to protect against a semibluffing type hand? Now the turn, he bets small when the board pairs. Sure this could be a boat, but it's also likely that he is making a pseudo blocking bet with 88 again to defend against your possible blocking bet on the river. Now he bets again on the river, you're getting a good price in a pot where your hand is (justly) underrepresented. So I say again I like a call.

-SmileyEH

Re: 98s.
 

folding that river is horrendous...

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
folding that river is horrendous...

[/ QUOTE ]
like, really really awful. like, wow. OMG. woah. that is one horrible play.
BTW/ plz dont yell at me.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]


River: ($89) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets $40</font>, Hero folds.

-----

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm speechless.

Re: 98s.
 

This is one of the worser folds I've seen. It's almost horrible.

Re: 98s.
 

I would definitely call, but I don't really have a problem with a fold. I'm not familiar with full ring stats, but for 6 max, those stats would indicate a set miner. It looks like you are getting value bet by a set that boated up. Possibly weak lead on turn and river praying to get raised?

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would definitely call, but I don't really have a problem with a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
The problem with a fold is that he is good way more than 23% of the time, here.

Re: 98s.
 

I think your read is valid.. and it's coupled by the fact that he bet perfectly.. nearly half the pot both times..

This allows you to catch a possible straight with 7/8s (if he reads you for that possiblity) by simply calling, and also gives you the option of reraising if you think he's weak. He's betting into you on purpose, and with exreme strength in my opinion. I put him on a Boat, and I think you're less than 25% to win in this situation. Great fold in my opinion

Re: 98s.
 

If you people put so much faith in stats, why don't you take a look at his WSD, which is 39%. Don't you think that set-miners would have a higher percentage of winning showdowns?

This fold is terrible. This is 200NL. Villain is not even showing much strength. You would think that on a board like that he would try to extract more value out of FH.

Re: 98s.
 

you can se 88's, 99's, and 34s enough times to make a turn and river call profitable. His bets look like scared blocking bets more than value bets. I don't think he'd raise either of those PP's either since his PFR is only 6

If you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets.

Re: 98s.
 

Reads &gt; Math


[ QUOTE ]
you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you.

Re: 98s.
 

He filled up but I am still calling that river. I try not to overthink donks into hands too much...

Re: 98s.
 

You sure he doesn't have 84o or 99? I mean, those are VERY likely.

Re: 98s.
 

84 from a 15% vpip UTG+1?

99 is possible but the other boatages seem much more likely.

Re: 98s.
 

When a tight player limps in EP, he's got 22-TT (maybe JJ), and less often decent suited connectors 56s-JQs (maybe KQs).

That being said, when a tight player pulls a stop&amp;go on a coordinated board, he has a hand that he believes has showdown value. Raising at any point after the flop has no value, as none of the hands you beat will pay you off.

Your river fold is bad. I'll call his weaksauce bets every time here and expect to beat 88-99-TT. If he has a boat so be it, you gain because he didn't pot the turn. Woulda been sick if he freerolled you with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Re: 98s.
 

1) Just because you start a thread doesn't make it "yours".

2) Why post this hand if you are just going to disagree with all the advice people are giving you? From an objective, away from the table, in a vacuum view, you played this hand pretty horribly.

If you think folding that river versus your everyday run of the mill 1/2 NL player is a profitable play then you are just wrong. If you think this fold is right then you have a read dictating the correctness of the fold. If you have this read then it's not up for debate, so why post this hand?

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reads &gt; Math


[ QUOTE ]
you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're read says you're ahead on the turn but behind on the river? Nice read man. Nice read.

I'll do you one up and never post any advice to you ever again. Seems a waste of time. Other people are likely to come to this conclusion as well. Everyone feels you played this hand poorly in one way or another, if you don't agree with any of them and don't care to consider what anyone offers than why post, as everyone else said?

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Reads &gt; Math


[ QUOTE ]
you really think you're beat by a boat, you can't call that turn bet if you're folding to a small river bet on a blank river; you're just wasting money on the turn. That being said I call both streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do me a favor. Never use this logic in a thread of mine ever again please. Thank you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey skeme;

his logic is good.

Re: 98s.
 

I think this thread is sufficient evidence that using pt stats and the action in this cannot definitively say you are behind often enough to make folding getting that good of a price the correct move. Reads &gt; math? Yes. But your read in this case is a statistically unreliable small chunk of PT data and some wierd maybe weak, maybe strong type action. You have to know that in a theoretical vacumn those stats and this action just aren't going to be sufficient to justfy folding the river for that price to most poker players.

FWIW, when a tight preflop player is willing to give me action on this flop I gas it hard and no board pairing minus major pot bet type action is keeping me from show down. Flame away! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
84 from a 15% vpip UTG+1?

99 is possible but the other boatages seem much more likely.


[/ QUOTE ]

It was a joke. Others have suggested these hands as much more likely than a boat. I think that's ridiculous..


[ QUOTE ]
2) Why post this hand if you are just going to disagree with all the advice people are giving you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't disagree with all of the advice. I pointed out that saying he can have A6, 86, 84, and 34 is [censored] ridiculous. Yeah, I may have played the hand horrible, which is why the lot of you are disagreeing with my play, which you deem incorrect.. but when I deem some of the advice in this thread as incorrect as well, I'm chastized? There's a double standard because I created a thread asking for advice and rejected it.


[ QUOTE ]
If you think folding that river versus your everyday run of the mill 1/2 NL player is a profitable play then you are just wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

This isn't a run of the mill 1/2 player. A run of the mill 1/2 player has a VPIP of 25 or higher and no thought process. Villain does.


[ QUOTE ]
If you think this fold is right then you have a read dictating the correctness of the fold. If you have this read then it's not up for debate, so why post this hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

What set of rules says I absolutely HAVE to call this river? There isn't one. The driving force behind you telling me to call is YOUR read on the hand. Mine is simply different. This is not a hard concept to grasp.


[ QUOTE ]
You're read says you're ahead on the turn but behind on the river? Nice read man. Nice read.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I hadn't decided on a read yet, obviously. I thought if he had a drawing hand or a smaller PP he would check the river. If he bet again on the river I would fold. This isn't some foreign play here, buddy.


[ QUOTE ]
Everyone feels you played this hand poorly in one way or another, if you don't agree with any of them and don't care to consider what anyone offers than why post, as everyone else said?

[/ QUOTE ]

Better yet, why post a hand at all if I'm just going to accept every single thing someone says? Sure, he CAN have 84o in EP! Thanks guys! It's all so clear now, call this river every single time because I called the turn! Excellent, this will DEFINITELY make me money in the future..


[ QUOTE ]
Hey skeme;

his logic is good.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Roberto,

I never want this logic in my presence again.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]

Hey Roberto,

I never want this logic in my presence again.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you plz make a little list of what is and what is not allowed in your threads so i can be sure not to break the etiquette of a skeme thread

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hey Roberto,

I never want this logic in my presence again.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you plz make a little list of what is and what is not allowed in your threads so i can be sure not to break the etiquette of a skeme thread

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 98s.
 

I'm just not going to comment on any of your hands any more. Not that you would care, oh well.

-SmileyEH

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hey Roberto,

I never want this logic in my presence again.

[/ QUOTE ]

can you plz make a little list of what is and what is not allowed in your threads so i can be sure not to break the etiquette of a skeme thread

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be the first thing in the new FAQ.

Re: 98s.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just not going to comment on any of your hands any more. Not that you would care, oh well.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't know why.. whatev.

Re: 98s.
 

I call turn, and most likely call river. For a tight player like this, looks like hes got an overpair and thinks hes ahead of your 87 or whatever. If you raise turn, he only comes along when your behind most likely, although the dreaded mini raise might not be bad here.

Re: 98s.
 

Skeme, its most likely because he posted this perfect analysis of why your thinking was off.....

[ QUOTE ]

This was what I was getting at. If you don't adjust your reads as the hand progresses you'll get yourself in trouble. Don't get married to a hand, or a read.
On the flop a tight player bet in a multiway flop on an all low card flop. Right there I want to maximize value from a set because it's very likely he has that hand. You made a just under pot raise and the villian calls. Now it really doesn't look he has a set, wouldn't a set 3bet here to insure action from two pair, and to protect against a semibluffing type hand? Now the turn, he bets small when the board pairs. Sure this could be a boat, but it's also likely that he is making a pseudo blocking bet with 88 again to defend against your possible blocking bet on the river. Now he bets again on the river, you're getting a good price in a pot where your hand is (justly) underrepresented. So I say again I like a call.

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

...and you still can't fathom the possibility that you MIGHT be wrong. Why did you post the hand if you could only accept one possible analysis? This thread is a trainwreck.

Re: 98s.
 

I'm definitely sick of people assuming I am assuming my fold was right. I am not. I could definitely be wrong. I've said I could've played this hand horribly. Lots of replies in this thread have made me think a call was in order. Because I reject answers I think are ridiculous, you guys bitch. This is a discussion, not a lesson. A debate, if you will.

I never said anything negative about Smiley's post. I liked it very much and left it alone if I recall correctly.

"Yeah, I may have played the hand horrible, which is why the lot of you are disagreeing with my play, which you deem incorrect.. but when I deem some of the advice in this thread as incorrect as well, I'm chastized? There's a double standard because I created a thread asking for advice and rejected it."

Re: 98s.
 

there are a million responses and i personally have been in a lot of pokerstars 1/2 NL games (illbill21) and i would say i am raising here.. all it takes is for villain to have something like K-6 and hes coming for all his money. not only that but 3-4 pushes him also.. if not pushes but it also gives you a big pot if he decides to fold w/ the small end.. im coming over the top w/ all my money on this hand.. make him make a decision for all his chips.. he has to have a boat to beat you.. and if he does.. good luck to him.

on another side note.. i know all the picky limit players on here will disagree with me.. but i say you raise it in a limped around pot w/ a suited connector.. just because you dont want others with the same type of hand in the game with you.. that way you can correctly guage your hand when the flop comes like it does..

i know saying that implies losing money in the end b/c 9-8 suited is a losing hand by itself over projections of thousands of hands.. but you either raise coming in witht this hand or you fold it.

so you could make an argument for you even playing this hand without a raise.. or your raise of only $20 on the flop. personally im doing a raise way over the pot here on the flop because technically look at it this way. the board pairs you have something to worry about.. why deal w/ that? take it down here and now.

Re: 98s.
 

Skeme: [ QUOTE ]
Read&gt;math


[/ QUOTE ][ QUOTE ]
You're read says you're ahead on the turn but behind on the river? Nice read man. Nice read.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No, I hadn't decided on a read yet, obviously.
I thought if he had a drawing hand or a smaller PP he would check the river. If he bet again on the river I would fold. This isn't some foreign play here, buddy.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL! Contradictory? This isn't discrediting bad logic, it's being thick headed. You won't have for mathematical reasoning since you value reads more, but you have no read. So you won't play this with logic, but rather with a scared and uncertain sense of where you're at until the river? No it's not an uncommon play, it's a very common bad one. Do you REALLY feel that that indecisiveness is justified? If so I don't think you're in the position to be criticizing most people's logic.


[ QUOTE ]
Hey skeme;

his logic is good.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Hey Roberto,

I never want this logic in my presence again.

[/ QUOTE ]

You post and rip people for shallow answers, then say you won't have logic? You're a condescending hypocrite. NH

Re: 98s.
 

bored at 6am, can't sleep, realize i have missed a ton of threads in mnl. so i see this one with a bunch of replies.

all i can say is "lol, this is terrible!"

what is funny was halfway through i was like "please make a terrible fold to a brick river and underbet". and then he did!

skeme, the only thing worse than how you played this hand were your assish comments to people that took the time to respond to you.

Re: 98s.
 

Well that may be true.. but at least I never slept with Lumberg.