Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Just be thankful it doesn't involve point spreads. (Yet)

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I'm picturing a "who will score the first TD in the XXX game?" for question #8.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Just be thankful it doesn't involve point spreads. (Yet)

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I'm picturing a "who will score the first TD in the XXX game?" for question #8.

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Especially if it is a Bears game. You have to figure which guy on the Chicago defense is going to score.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

great promo for an european fellow with no clue about american football like myself. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

another time to be glad for 2+2...

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

It's Atlanta folks.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Even if it's a bunch of A-or-B questions it is incorrect to assume that it is 1:32 of getting all 5 correct.

As the first question shows, just because there are 2 choices does not make it a 50/50 proposition.
Atlanta is a significant favorite in this game obviously.

With 2 choices the WORST it can be is 50/50.
If you have any knowledge of football at all then some of these questions will be 60% or higher.

Atlanta has to be a least a 75% favorite to win this game.
Somebody posted that the betting-line on ATL was -600 meaning that the handicappers and sports-bettors out there are making them an even bigger favorite than that.



So that's some of the math behind it.
However...it's also worth noting that this promotion is kind of stupid.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

This game is at the Alamodome here so the Saints will have a pretty big crowd pulling for them for a change. Might be enough to pull the upset.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Uhhhh, I don't know why you guys are so upset. Would you rather they made it a trivia game so that 70,000 people could google it and Party would wind up paying each player like $15.00 at the end. Cmon you guys, are saying its a stupid promotion cuz their not giving you money for correctly using a search engine.

If anything this will make the games on Sunday more fun to watch.

Go Atlanta!

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Uhhhh, I don't know why you guys are so upset. Would you rather they made it a trivia game so that 70,000 people could google it and Party would wind up paying each player like $15.00 at the end. Cmon you guys, are saying its a stupid promotion cuz their not giving you money for correctly using a search engine.

If anything this will make the games on Sunday more fun to watch.

Go Atlanta!

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Of course we would rather they have an easy trivia game where we can just google the answers. That's a free $815. If they continue to ask questions like this, most people probably won't make more than $200, and the chances of anyone winning a share of the million dollars are terrible. The million dollar prize is just a gimmick to draw people's attention.

[edited to add]
But I'm not going to blame party poker for running the promotion this way. There's no way it could possibly be profitable for party poker to make the trivia questions ridiculously easy. Say 50,000 people got all 40 questions right (if anything, that estimate might be a little low). Party would have to shell out (50,000x$800)+$1,000,000= 41 MILLION DOLLARS. Not to mention millions of dollars for people who didn't do the questions every week. You're kidding yourself if you think this would be reasonable for party poker to do and that this is what party poker should have done.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

actually this isn't true.

If they ask a series of 70/30 questions it is very unlikely that they will have several players with perfect scores.
It is extremely likely that there wil be an upset somewhere along the way that knocks out a majority of their players.


You may have slight EV by going against the grain on a pick or two where you feel the public is going to strongly side one way but you feel differently and believe it to be a 50/50 proposition.
That way, if your pick was correct then lots of other players would be knocked out while you were still alive (to win a bigger share of the million bucks of course).



I agree with the previous poster that N.O. does have a chance in this game.
If the odds were long enough I would be very inclined towards betting N.O. for the upset.
But for a pure 50/50 proposition like in the Party question one should likely play it safe and just with ATL. I don't believe that N.O.'s chances are strong enough to warrant bucking the trend on this pick.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

[ QUOTE ]
actually this isn't true.

If they ask a series of 70/30 questions it is very unlikely that they will have several players with perfect scores.
It is extremely likely that there wil be an upset somewhere along the way that knocks out a majority of their players.


You may have slight EV by going against the grain on a pick or two where you feel the public is going to strongly side one way but you feel differently and believe it to be a 50/50 proposition.
That way, if your pick was correct then lots of other players would be knocked out while you were still alive (to win a bigger share of the million bucks of course).


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Huh? I'm confused. When did I say I thought there would be several people who would win a share of the million dollars? I agree with what you said. I think it's very unlikely anyone will win because most people will get knocked out on an upset, or will incorrectly pick a team to upset. Unless you replied to the wrong poster.

[edited to add]
Maybe you were confused when I said "most people won't win more than $200. What I meant was $200 from the weekly 5 game parlays they have where 4/5 nets $50 and 5/5 nets $100.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

yeah. i read it too quickly.

my apologies....that $200 bit threw me I guess.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

From their page:

Each player who answers ALL 40 questions correctly will share a GRAND PRIZE of $1,000,000!

Is [Ain't] the lottery. Each 40 for 40 person gets {a share of } the million.

Edited for my utter lack of reading comprehension. Duh.

Assuming all 70:30 picks:

The Biggie:

40 out of 40 is roughly 1 in a million (think 20 out of 20 on a 50:50 pick, which is 1 in 2 to 20th ). So EV of $1

Weekly:
5 out of 5 is roughly 1 in 6. Pays $100. EV of $16. For 8 weeks. Say $128.

4 out of 5 is roughly 1 in 2.75. Pays $50. EV of $18. For 8 weeks. Say $144.

So, if all the questions are 70:30 (doubtful, since there are only 4 more weeks of regular season [with lopsided games] to go, then 4 weeks of post-season play with less lopsided games), is the promo that bad for someone who normally plays at Party?

[[ hope all my math is right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] ]]

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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From their page:

Each player who answers ALL 40 questions correctly will share a GRAND PRIZE of $1,000,000!

Ain't the lottery. Each 40 for 40 person gets the million.



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Did you miss the word "share" there? I take that to mean if there are two or more winners (yeah right)then they split the million.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Party is preparing everyone for when its adds a sportsbook next year... stay tuned! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Party is preparing everyone for when its adds a sportsbook next year... stay tuned! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Might be a distinct possibility.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Party is preparing everyone for when its adds a sportsbook next year... stay tuned! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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That's what I was thinking. Hopefully they'll have some retarted +ev bonuses

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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What they should have done was make the first 4 questions simple and then make the 5th one something like chosing who would win a certain game.

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You, sir, are smart. That is a wonderful idea.

Too bad the people at Party aren't that smart themselves. Even make the last question 5 or 6 possible answers would have been a great move.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

The chance they have to give out the million is less then one percent. Assume 10,000 people answer all 40 (probably way high) and that each person's average answer has a 60% chance of being right (remember people arent always going to pick the best answer, and many questions will be toss ups).

(1-(.6^40))^10,000 is .99999, so assuming i remembered the formula right and my assumptions are close party only has to pay out the million one out of 100,000.

Enjoy!

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

you are very very very wrong. the odds of going 40/40 are alot more than 1/ 100,000..40/ 40 IS basically impossible

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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This game is at the Alamodome here so the Saints will have a pretty big crowd pulling for them for a change. Might be enough to pull the upset.

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Incorrect. The Monday night game will be played in Atlanta at the Georgia dome.

Be thankful you dont have to pick the point spread.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

My bad. I was thinking of the Dec 24th game in the Alamodome.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Dec. 8:

Which team will score first in the game on December 12?

a) New Orleans
b) Atlanta

I'm sure glad I "eat, breathe, and sleep" football! People who really follow football have such a huge edge for this promotion it's not even fair!

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Because the NFL is so predictable!

I think people who know football have about a .0000000000000000000456% greater chance of winning a share of the $1,000,000.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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...this promotion it's not even fair!

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No amount of football knowledge will give you any edge over anyone. It's like putting a 5 bet accumulator on at the bookmakers. It's a con.

IF you took the money that you gave Party in rake instead to the bookies and put that 5 accumulator bet on, you'd win a lot more than $100.

The only reason to play the promotion is because you are playing at Party anyway.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

No amount of football knowledge will give you any edge over anyone

niave at best.. very very dumb at the worst..

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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you are very very very wrong. the odds of going 40/40 are alot more than 1/ 100,000..40/ 40 IS basically impossible

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Nothing like saying someone else is wrong without posting a reason why. Are you too lazy, or incapable of doing the math?

Incidentally, the OP was correct when he stated that the chance of Party having to pay out the million is around 1/100,000, assuming 10,000 people with a 60 percent chance of answering each question correctly.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Do i need to tell you why, and how , the sun is not purple while im at it ?

And no , the odds of party having to pay out the million dollars isnt 1/100,00 still.

i am very incapable on the math though, nice job.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Do i need to tell you why, and how , the sun is not purple while im at it ?

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This would actually be quite helpful, as most scientists are unsure why the sun appears yellow to the human eye - their best guess is that objects so bright tend to leave a yellow after-image on the retina, but I'm sure you have an answer since you seem to be pretty knowledgable.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

So if you don't get 30 points on just one of the days, you are out of luck (because you would be missing one of the 40 questions???) Kind of sucks that you can't play extra hands during the week to unlock days you may have missed (atleast that is how it sounded to me).

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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Do i need to tell you why, and how , the sun is not purple while im at it ?

And no , the odds of party having to pay out the million dollars isnt 1/100,00 still.

i am very incapable on the math though, nice job.

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(1-.6^40)^10,000 is correct. You are not.

Factoid of the day
 

If you have a 50% chance of answering each questions correctly, and there are 40 questions. Your odds of winning are ~1.1 trillion against winning.

To put that in persepective, there are ~6 billion people on this planet. So, you would need 183 planets of the same population as earth before you would average 1 winner per promotion. Good luck.

Jason

Re: Factoid of the day
 

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If you have a 50% chance of answering each questions correctly, and there are 40 questions. Your odds of winning are ~1.1 trillion against winning.

To put that in persepective, there are ~6 billion people on this planet. So, you would need 183 planets of the same population as earth before you would average 1 winner per promotion. Enjoy!


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Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

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No amount of football knowledge will give you any edge over anyone

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niave at best.. very very dumb at the worst..

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I meant for this promotion.

If you can pick 5 football bets out of 5 every week you shouldn't be posting here. You should be out there wiping out the bookmakers.

And if you don't normally earn 30 party points per day and are only earning them in order for this promotion because of football knowledge then that could be the dumbest move ever.

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Today's Question:

Who will score the first touchdown?
New Orleans
Atlanta

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: PartyPoker.com’s $1,000,000 Touchdown Promotion
 

Well, I'd go with Atlanta if you want the +EV choice. I doubt theres much difference in the scope of 40 questions which choice you pick tho. Between this question and yesterday it just depends on what happens in the game. It's not something really predictable.

I'm just pissed I have to watch football now.