Re: Size Does Matter
 

I call and hope he's on a flush draw. I wouldn't raise because if he's on a flush draw he's likely to push and then I have to fold.

If he checks to us on the turn, I bet half the pot and fold to a check-raise. If he make a half-size bet or larger on the turn, I call. If he makes a smaller bet then I raise.

If he then bets into us on the river, 75% of the time I fold. If he checks the river, I check behind and hope that we don't split.

We also have outs if a diamond falls because it looks like we're playing a flush draw.

The disadvantage of this line is that if he might bet into us on the river if his flush draw misses, since that is his only option to win the pot.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

I dont really agree with your rational, Locutus.

I dont know why pushing b/c we are afraid of the turn is a good idea. If he has a hand that leaves us really vulnerable to a turn card, ie. two-way draws, over card draws, pair + draws, etc. He isnt folding to a jam anyway.

The hands he folds are the hands he has 2-8 outs with.

Showing that a push is profitable, doesnt mean that it is the best line.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

I agree. However, if a push overbet can get call from hands we have crushed like JQ/J10/1010/99/88 then it might have merit. I suppose its possible that against the right opponent it would be a good play, but certainly not as a default.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

Seems like one of those spots where he's either feeling it out with 88/99/QJ type stuff, or trying to build a pot with bottom set. That said, if you raise he probably folds all the hands you want in. If you call, he may lead the turn again strong (then you can consider a fold) or if he checks I'd like a checkbehind as it keeps the pot small, allows you to get some extra value by betting or calling the river vs a worse made hand, and saves you some chips vs a big pat hand.

Though I should back up and look at the whole draw possibility. I don't see him having a pure flush (or straight) draw here, since the vast majority of players check in that spot (and either checkraise bluff or call). Leading a pure flush draw intending to 3 bet is possible but very very few players will do it (and without a read, I can't flag him as tricky enough to do this). Something like 76d/JTd he could very well be intending to 3bet, and I think they are more likely to be played this way than a set, but there just aren't that many combinations of them out there. There are, however, a bazillion combos of KJ/QJ/JT/J9/77-TT that exist. And I want their money.

Everett

Re: Size Does Matter
 

This looks like a set all day long, why is everyone discounting it or not giving a set much thought? Myabe because a set is boring and you probably don't post that?

Soss is right, you still have to raise to find out what you are up against because it costs the least right here, if re-popped I think you let it go.

Calling is ok, but you still won't know where you stand, and if he keeps firing and you don't improve, it will cost you more to get to showdown or raise on turn.

The nice thing about calling is often the villian check folds the turn, but this doesn't feel like one of those hands, as yout PF raise of a limper shows strength, and he's betting into strength....

Find out now where you stand while its cheap.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Size Does Matter
 

I agree,

I didn't say it was the best line, I said it was profitable. (significantly).

The problem I have with calling or 3 betting is that I can't put hero on a flush draw if I was villain, so I might be looking to bet/push every diamond, king, queen. Villain has alot of FE in this situation and it is unclear how EV+ it is for hero, although he is ahead of villain's range but unlikely to know when he is behind.

Top pair is not that good of a trapping hand
Villain should call a push with some of his hands that are behind (KJ,QJ,JT)??
I think hands like 66-TT are only going to put another chip in the pot when they are way ahead, so your giving free cards much of the time. (40% of his holdings)
The stacks aren't that deep for villain moving to 150/300 next level.
Without a read, I don't want to figure out how villain is playing on my dime. Give me the 1.4K EV and move to the next hand.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
This looks like a set all day long, why is everyone discounting it or not giving a set much thought?

[/ QUOTE ]

My worldview is that sets check to the PFR much more often than they lead. Therefore, I consider the set possibility but I would underweight it.

I have really sucked for the last several months, though, so maybe my worldview needs to change. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Later,
Che

Re: Size Does Matter
 

I agree with your worldview 100%.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]


My worldview is that sets check to the PFR much more often than they lead. Therefore, I consider the set possibility but I would underweight it.

I have really sucked for the last several months, though, so maybe my worldview needs to change.

Later,
Che

[/ QUOTE ]

WOW!!!

I was just reading some of your posts, glad to see you are posting again, please keep it up.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Size Does Matter
 

That's what my wife tells me!!

Bruce

Re: Size Does Matter
 

Locutus,

My problem is, when the diamond hits...
-if it hurts us, he would most likely have called our push and we are broke anyway.
-If it doesn't hurt us, don't we want him around to bet into us?

He isnt putting us on a flush draw...thats fine. But if we KNEW a diamond was coming on the turn, we are in much better shape vs the hands that bet into us on the turn (b/c as you suggested, some players will bluff the flush) than we are vs the hands that call our push.

I dont think we are getting called very often by JT, QJ type hands. KJ...maybe, plus overpairs, and good flush draws.


So....if we just blindly decide to call a push on the turn, I think we are either the same (when he makes the flush), or better off (He bluffs the flush), than we would be if we pushed.

OK, so if we agree that flush draws arent going anywhere, what hands is he folding here, that we dont love the idea of him paying another 2.5K to see the turn?

Re: Size Does Matter
 

If I raise to 4K get called and a diamond comes, I can now fold to a push, because I am well behind his range.

It would be a hard call to make for hero who still has ~50XBB left - 30 at the next level. Even being the calling station I am, I don't like making this call or most other calls at the turn.

Given that villain only has 5K left, I don't see how he is going to "go quietly into that good night"/showdown.

Results
 

I ended up raising to 4k and calling a push. He had A3 of diamonds, and I outflipped him to get a big stack. The whole hand made me feel pretty dirty though. Getting 70ish BBs in on this flop with TPTK just makes me ill. Generally speaking my instinct is to call here if I have a hand that I have to call a push with but wont be happy about. Thing is, when there are a lot of draws out there it makes it a lot harder to figure out the turn and increases the difficulty of your decisions on later streets. So, I took the easy way out. If I had a shorter stack I think its an easy raise, if I had a deeper one, its an easy call, 70x though I felt was right on the border, so I got sloppy and decided not to give myself any tough decisions. One of the main weaknesses of most tournament players is that they are uncomfortable playing the turn and the river. Thing is, the turn and the river are where big pots are won and lost. Thats why good cash game players will play tournaments and have excellent results, even if maybe they aren't quite as good at the nuances of medium/short stack play preflop and on the flop as tournament specialists.

Re: Results
 

Great analysis, MLG, and interesting thread.

Re: Results
 

There's two reasons not to feel dirty about this hand IMO:

1)You have an ace;
2)You know that with your image you'll get played back at with far less than a 15 (12) outer.

You'd (I'd) play exactly the same with QQ there as (it turns out) a dog in the hand. 70 BB just isn't deep enough not to raise/call; I think the dividing line is higher than that.

Re: Results
 

Thanks man. POST MORE DUDE.

Re: Results
 

Had you not raised I doubt u wind up getting stacked. When
he misses the turn he'll probably check and fold to a pot
sized bet. So it seems to me by playing this aggressively
you got all your chips in on the flop as a small favorite.
Tough to find too many better spots than that.

If I recall the threads there was too much emphasis on the
villian flopping a set or having an over pair. If he had
an overpair he probably would have reraised to make this
headsup. If we compare cominations with two diamond hands
vs two pocket pairs where'll have flopped a set it's more likely that he has a diamond draw.

Bruce

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree,

I didn't say it was the best line, I said it was profitable. (significantly).

The problem I have with calling or 3 betting is that I can't put hero on a flush draw if I was villain, so I might be looking to bet/push every diamond, king, queen. Villain has alot of FE in this situation and it is unclear how EV+ it is for hero, although he is ahead of villain's range but unlikely to know when he is behind.

Top pair is not that good of a trapping hand
Villain should call a push with some of his hands that are behind (KJ,QJ,JT)??
I think hands like 66-TT are only going to put another chip in the pot when they are way ahead, so your giving free cards much of the time. (40% of his holdings)
The stacks aren't that deep for villain moving to 150/300 next level.
Without a read, I don't want to figure out how villain is playing on my dime. Give me the 1.4K EV and move to the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really hate this thinking.

Top pair, Jacks, is not a powerhouse hand, and not worthy of your whole stack.

This is still early in the tourney when we have a chance to play small-bet poker. hitting a pair and pushing is the strategy for unimaginative noobs, not solid, thinking players.

I love betting in to preflop raisers with sets, 2 pair, or monster draws because people so love to push if they have hit or have an overpair.

Play smart. Play small bet poker. Make a solid raise and reevaluate.

Now if you're one of those players who can't reevaluate, sees monsters under the bed, and can't lay down TP/TK, then heck with it. Shoving is your best strategy anyway.

-Scott

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call and evaluate turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
Serious question jason. what hands do you raise on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
this is a great question. i recently realized that my range of raising hands in spots like these is so easily exploitable it is not even funny.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
Soss is right, you still have to raise to find out what you are up against because it costs the least right here, if re-popped I think you let it go.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the op will go broke with smaller pairs, I don't like the raise here. If he had made a smaller bet, or if the pot/stack ratios were smaller, then I like a raise more. But I don't like it when facing a significant bet on the stated ratios. I much prefer just calling and keeping the lesser pairs in there, whilst preventing any draw from moving in. Our hand has value. So does our position.

But it's a rebuy, and that may change the typical dynamics drastically with regards what they get it allin with. But that just means a fold after you raise and get re-popped would be bad, and if a fold would be good, the raise is a mistake.

EDIT: Having looked again at the numbers, the ratios are pretty close. If he had bet more, or if the stacks would have been a little smaller, I would have preferred raising, probably allin. If there had been less than 2X the pot left in the stacks after I call the significant bet, I would have raised instead. More than 2X, I prefer calling.

Re: Size Does Matter
 

[ QUOTE ]
Unless the op will go broke with smaller pairs, I don't like the raise here. If he had made a smaller bet, or if the pot/stack ratios were smaller, then I like a raise more. But I don't like it when facing a significant bet on the stated ratios. I much prefer just calling and keeping the lesser pairs in there, whilst preventing any draw from moving in. Our hand has value. So does our position.

But it's a rebuy, and that may change the typical dynamics drastically with regards what they get it allin with. But that just means a fold after you raise and get re-popped would be bad, and if a fold would be good, the raise is a mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point.

You don't post here enough.

Regards,
Woodguy