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Re: SIDEBETS
[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys. [/ QUOTE ] You mean cheat? |
Re: SIDEBETS
[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys. [/ QUOTE ] I assume if the account gets frozen by party, adanthar loses. Also, I think we can trust him not to cheat. |
Re: SIDEBETS
[ QUOTE ]
if i were adanthar, i'd just have someone pass me some chips in each of my tourneys. [/ QUOTE ] Well then thank god I'm not betting with you. I'm betting with a Adanthar. Besides, he's a lawyer: he wouldn't lie, cheat or steal if his job depended on it. Wait a tick.... Everett |
Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm rooting for Adanthar...but I don't think he can pull it off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] This is possible for players of far less ability than Adanthar. I say he will do it. GL Adanthar! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Of course it's possible, the point is how probable. [/ QUOTE ] All he has to do is get to the step 5, not win it. Once you get past step 1, the top two places move up. Its hard to get knocked all the way out of these. I dont know what the odds are, but I like his chances. |
Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
[ QUOTE ]
There's just so many bad beats on L1 & 2. This is where the real trouble is. [/ QUOTE ] Poker is 5% luck, 10% bad beats, all the rest skill. |
Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
forum experience of wild prop bets:
Irieguy: LOSE Gigabet : LOSE Adanthar: xxxx Btw we are talking about great posters, we arent talking about the avg. dude that beats the 33s. PS:I feel like puking every time I see one of those " the lower buy-ins are hard because of bad beats".( yep thats u scuba...) |
Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
I agree but don't think this should be enough to make you think he is a good bet here. That said my money is on him.
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Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
There is no way this is a +EV bet for Adanthar. That said, he might pull it off if he hits a lucky streak.
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Victory is mine!
Alright, this thing definitely dragged on for much longer than it should, but apparantly these ministeps were a real pain/bore to play so it took a few prods to get adanthar to finish these suckers but....
Adanthar busted. Sweeeeeeeeeeeet-- I mean, how unfortunate. If you go to my Ministep Calculator you can tinker with a little applet I made to simulate the ministep challenge. It just takes your given bankroll and (based on the given percentages) simulates stepping through the levels until you either hit step 5 or don't have enough $$ to buy in any more. It does this a few thousand times (or however many times you tell it to) and spits out some data. Anyway. I thought that the numbers that I gave Adanthar in that applet were quite generous, and he came out to be about 25% to succeed. I don't doubt that he's an outstanding tournament (and satellite) player, but a >1000% ROI is a little trickier to achieve than it seems. I dealt with this stuff a whiiiiiiiile ago (when these ministeps were brand new) to figure out if they were worth playing. After playing a bunch to get a feel for my chances and running some numbers, I basically came to three conclusions: 1) The ROI is HUGE for a good player. 2) The variance on cashes is ENORMOUS and you need to really invest in this and be sure that you're a winner. 3) The number of games that you have to play is GINORMONSTROUS. For a strong player, on average, youll play about 80 games (mostly in the form of step 1 freerolls) for every step 5 entry that you earn. So that means 160 games per cash. Though you'll have only paid about 8 buy ins. Do the math and it's like $30-$40 bucks an hour, but considering the absurd variance, you'd have to be a very patient soul to play these properly. I wish I could give some more satisfying numbers on Adanthar's performance (like finish distributions at each step, etc), but party is being stubborn loading the account activity so I'll give a quick synopsis (Adanthar will probably chime in later). A) Adanthar ran badly. No doubt about that. But that's part of the intolerable variance of this little challenge. B) He didn't get past ministep 3. He spent almost all (maybe 85%) of his steps on ministep 1. C) I would gladly take this bet up again with anyone. It's amazing how split the forum was on the outcome of this bet when it turned out to be so heavily one-sided (or so I still think). It just goes to show you how bad we people are, intuitively, at grasping fuzzy probabilities and understanding the depths of variance. Doing computations away from the table can help fine-tune your intuition, not to mention keep you from getting an ear full of cider. Cheers, Everett |
Re: Victory is mine!
When they say freeroll to the next Step, do they credit your account with the entry+buyin and you can do whatever you want with that money? Or do you have to use it specifically for that next step?
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Re: Victory is mine!
Nah, they don't give you cash. They just give you an entry into the particular step, so that when you sign up for one there's a "pay with cash" or "use an entry"
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Re: Victory is mine!
It's still interesting nonetheless. I never looked into it until just now. After I finish my bonus on AbsolutePoker, I'm going to try it out. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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The trick is...
After cashing out a pretty large chunk of my bankroll to care for the holidays and year-end family expenses back in November, I had to find a way to build back up. When I looked at the options, I simply didn't want to invest countless hours at the micro games clearing bonuses, so I looked to SNG's, partly because I wanted to develop my NL touney skills, and partly because I was sick of ring games.
I've usually done fairly well at the $11-$33 level, but the variance just seemed too steep for my meager BR, so I decided to try the mini-steps instead. I took my measely $220 I had left and gave it a go. After a few attempts at the mini #1 (one buy-in, a couple freerolls), I looked at the structure again and came up with the following plan: 1) Buy directly into Mini #2 ($20+2) 2) Play for 5th place 3) Turn on the jets when I'm guaranteed a re-roll into my current step level. Now, I have admit I've put in about 160+ hours this month into this, and had to play COUNTLESS re-rolls and a few dropbacks (twice from 4 back to 2) but I've had the following results: 10 Direct Buy-ins = $220 2 Bust-outs before Step 5 1 Finish OOM on Step 5 (Finished 7th) 7 Cashes on Step 5 - (2)5th=$400, (4)3rd=$2000, (1)1st= $2000 $4400 total winnings, $220 Fees = $4180 profit, at roughly 160 hours = $26/Hr. Now, I know this doesn't seem like a lot to most people, but considering the bone-dry bankroll I started with, this worked out very well. Not only have I built up enough to be flexable again hunting the bonus $, but I've also given myself a cushion to deal with the variance again on the $11's and $22's. For me, this was far more advantageous than grinding out bonuses playing micro-limits, and had a more manageable risk/reward factor than just playing the standard SNG's. I forced myself to play smarter poker overall when the game was still 5+ handed, and got to really work on honing my short-handed skills after I met my top-5 finish goal. And of course, once reaching the final table, I had to really focus on the game and play to the best of my ability against a wild range of competition (the same gentleman who took me out on my only non-cash final table was, ironically, the same guy I beat HU in my only victory two days later). I'm going to continue next month with this strategy, so I'll fire up PT and crunch some hard numbers for you guys if you're interested. But I wanted to throw this little story out there because I've found it to be a very good alternative to the standard bankroll-building grind. Thanks for listening, MotorCityMike |
Re: The trick is...
k I didn't read the whole thing...all I read was something like, "My roll was too small for the variance of 11s, so I decided to play mini-steps instead." That seems like 110% backwards to me.
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Re: The trick is...
[ QUOTE ]
k I didn't read the whole thing...all I read was something like, "My roll was too small for the variance of 11s, so I decided to play mini-steps instead." That seems like 110% backwards to me. [/ QUOTE ] Don't bother reading the rest, he lucksacked not busting his roll. But it's not necessarily a bad thing to do...just ridiculously time consuming and high variance. Yugoslav |
Re: The trick is...
[ QUOTE ]
That seems like 110% backwards to me [/ QUOTE ] I thought so too, at first, but found it much easier to accept lower finishes (usually 4th-5th place) when I knew, at the least, I'd get another freeroll into the same step. Granted, I found that I had to take a much different approach to each game than I would a normal SNG, but that wasn't all too bad. [ QUOTE ] Don't bother reading the rest, he lucksacked not busting his roll. But it's not necessarily a bad thing to do...just ridiculously time consuming and high variance. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not really sure about the first statement. With the finishing structure above level 1, ensuring a "second chance" is fairly easy. To Quickly summarize: <u>Mini-Step 2</u> Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 3 Place - 3-5 - Entry to Mini-Step 2 Place - 6-9 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 *This is the most critical finishing spot to avoid Place - 10 - Thanks for Playing <u>Mini-Step 3</u> Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 4 Place - 3,4 - Entry to Mini-Step 3 Place - 5,6 - Entry to Mini-Step 2 Place - 7,8 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 * Place - 9,10 - Thanks for Playing <u>Mini-Step 4</u> Place - 1,2 - Entry to Mini-Step 5 Place - 3-5 - Entry to Mini-Step 4 Place - 6,7 - Entry to Mini-Step 3 Place - 8 - Entry to Mini-Step 2 Place - 9 - Entry to Mini-Step 1 * Place - 10 - Thanks for Playing <u>Mini-Step 5</u> Place 1-5 - $$$ Place 6-10 - Thanks for playing Again, I had a two-fold reason for trying this, the main being that I simply didn't want to grind out the micros for bonus money and 2-4BB an hour. Sure, it would've probably been easier to just buy into 20 $11's and hope for a positive return, but I figured it was a lot safer to work on ensuring a top-5 finish and try to outplay a small table for 2 spots than it is to consistantly outplay an entire table for 3 spots. FWIW, I don't claim to be any kind of expert on the subject. It was an experiment that turned profitable and got me back on my feet, so I thought I'd share the story. I'd be really interested to read more about the research into these structures, though, to see why all the negative press. I'll never claim I wasn't lucky during my run, but I'd like to think I had a little skill and a good gameplan. |
Re: The trick is...
so, you don't think you lucksacked in the Step 5's? If not, I'd start buying straight into those if you think you can money 6 out of 7 times with regularity.
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Re: The trick is...
By your reasoning:
$4400 Prize - $220 buy-ins (10 Step 2) = $4180 profit $4400 Prize - $4300 buy-ins (10 Step 5) = $100 profit Let's say all I do is finish 5th twice out of my 10 buy-ins and 7 Step 5 tries: $400 Prize - $220 Buy-ins (10 step 2) = $180 profit $400 Prize - $4300 Buy-ins (10 step 5) = $3900 loss Pretty easy to see why I would chose NOT to do that (Not to mention that I never said I could finish in the money 6 of 7 times on a Step 5, and I only had a couple hundred bucks to start jackhole) |
Re: The trick is...
well, we can all see that isn't your bankroll now, right?
So, you are saying that even though you weren't a luckbox in your 7 step 5's, you wouldn't continue to just buyin into them if you could finish ITM 6 out of 7 times on a regular basis? Wow, can't imagine anyone not doing that...well, good luck with your steps. |
Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge** (Xpost)
Do you get rackeback on all the step entrys you win?
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Re: The trick is...
I agree with Mike. The mini steps are a decent investment for someone with a low bankroll which I think was the gist of his post. If you are just starting out they are ideal as you get a lot of games and SnG practice for your buck. Someone depositing $50 into Party probably isn't looking to grind out 2 BB's an hour and wants a bit fun for his little investment.
I deposited $50 into Party in October for the sole reason of playing them. I was grinding the micro's on Bet365 and saw the structure and it looked possible to get a payday for $6 investment. Mini Step Structure I got addicted to them and played them soldidly for over a month and you could say I luckboxed seven Step 5's, cashing in 6 of them for around $5000 but I had the same gameplan as Mike, aim for the top 5 replay then go for the top 2 which is a lot different than playing a standard SnG. Even in Step 1 I was happy with 6th place as you got most of your money back again. I found the Step 1-3 pretty soft and the Step 4 a rock garden most of the time. I was seeing the same players in step 3 and 4 a lot over the month so I knew their style of play which helped. Whereas if you are playing $11 or $22 SnG's you are playing different players most of the time. You also get a good mix of game if you are a beginner. You get the loose maniac step 1 and 2 to practice at. Then the 1000 chip start from Step 3 onwards which a low bankroll player would rarely get to play. The rock garden Step 4. Then the good player Step 5 which has it's regular buy in'ers and very good players. You probably get to play a pro like Zee Justin or whatever. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] For the fun casual player improving his game they are top value. There are a lot of players who play the steps exclusively and are generally multi tabling maybe sitting at a Step 2, 3, 4 & 5 at the same time. They must be making some cash from it. They must see it as +EV thing to do. I stopped playing them in December and played normal SnG's and have done well and that's probably because of playing 100's of Mini Step games and the practice. I'm going to go back to them for January and see if it was all just pure luck. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] I'm rambling. |
Re: The trick is...
[ QUOTE ]
After cashing out a pretty large chunk of my bankroll to care for the holidays and year-end family expenses back in November, I had to find a way to build back up. When I looked at the options, I simply didn't want to invest countless hours at the micro games clearing bonuses, so I looked to SNG's, partly because I wanted to develop my NL touney skills, and partly because I was sick of ring games. I've usually done fairly well at the $11-$33 level, but the variance just seemed too steep for my meager BR, so I decided to try the mini-steps instead. I took my measely $220 I had left and gave it a go. After a few attempts at the mini #1 (one buy-in, a couple freerolls), I looked at the structure again and came up with the following plan: 1) Buy directly into Mini #2 ($20+2) 2) Play for 5th place 3) Turn on the jets when I'm guaranteed a re-roll into my current step level. Now, I have admit I've put in about 160+ hours this month into this, and had to play COUNTLESS re-rolls and a few dropbacks (twice from 4 back to 2) but I've had the following results: 10 Direct Buy-ins = $220 2 Bust-outs before Step 5 1 Finish OOM on Step 5 (Finished 7th) 7 Cashes on Step 5 - (2)5th=$400, (4)3rd=$2000, (1)1st= $2000 $4400 total winnings, $220 Fees = $4180 profit, at roughly 160 hours = $26/Hr. Now, I know this doesn't seem like a lot to most people, but considering the bone-dry bankroll I started with, this worked out very well. Not only have I built up enough to be flexable again hunting the bonus $, but I've also given myself a cushion to deal with the variance again on the $11's and $22's. For me, this was far more advantageous than grinding out bonuses playing micro-limits, and had a more manageable risk/reward factor than just playing the standard SNG's. I forced myself to play smarter poker overall when the game was still 5+ handed, and got to really work on honing my short-handed skills after I met my top-5 finish goal. And of course, once reaching the final table, I had to really focus on the game and play to the best of my ability against a wild range of competition (the same gentleman who took me out on my only non-cash final table was, ironically, the same guy I beat HU in my only victory two days later). I'm going to continue next month with this strategy, so I'll fire up PT and crunch some hard numbers for you guys if you're interested. But I wanted to throw this little story out there because I've found it to be a very good alternative to the standard bankroll-building grind. Thanks for listening, MotorCityMike [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly how you can beat these ministeps if you're patient enough to put in the hours. You will reroll MAAAAAAAAANY MAAAAAAAAAAAAANY times, but you can avoid busting with enough care. This seems counterintuitive and "noobish" to the normal STT crowd, as playing just to get into the money is clearly suboptimal in a normal structure, especially since it is this very thinking that players here profit from exploiting in a normal STT. However, in a ministep the structure is so different that this strategy, assuming that few people use it, may not be far from optimal. Busting in 4th or in 10th doesn't matter in a regular game, so passing up a small edge early is retarded (especially since those chips will give you huge bubble leverage later). But here where the money is far more distributed, busting on the bubble is actually quite good if it allows you to reroll, and passing up those small early edges prevent you from busting and makes your investments last. This does come at the cost of fewer wins, but if you play properly and patiently you can have a lot of low-percentage shots at moving up. You can almost fold your way to a reroll in ministep 1, for example. However... cashing in 7 of 8 step 5s is absurdly fortunate. On average, for 8 buyins you'll get 8*400 = $3200(assuming youre an average player, maybe only $2000 for a weak player or $4000 for a fantastic player, but $4400 is basically unsubstainable), meaning more like $20/hr for a typical run. Also, because you get so few step 5 shots, you could easily bust in 7 of the 8 of them or you could only get 4 shots and bust in 3, giving you one $400 cash in 160 hours for a whopping $2.50/hr. Ouch. That's why these things are really only for people who: 1) Have no real bankroll 2) Can't afford (or don't want to) make a real investment 3) Are playing mostly just for fun and would enjoy just playing a match and rerolling. A lot of new players fit this description and it's not a bad system, since you really cant lose more than a dozen step 1 buyins without cashing if you play them right (and don't get impatient, since it may take weeks and weeks to complete). So hats off to you for doing so well Mike, but I hope that with your new-found bankroll you can break into some better poker games. Play some .5/$1 NL cash games, play 200 $11 STTs, hell play Omaha or Stud. Now you can afford to find other ways to make money. Good luck. Everett |
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