Re: Sidebets
 

[ QUOTE ]
Didn't see anyone yet taking your bet. I'll take against Adanthar for $100. Sound good?

[/ QUOTE ]

Dammit.. this is getting ridiculously confusing. Everyone who's interested in doing stuff PM people.

Re: Sidebets
 

Wow this is great stuff guys, update as it happens. So the strategy on these is just to play REALLY tight until you can get at least a re-roll? Ive never played these but they sound like I might give them a shot.

Re: Sidebets
 

If anyone thinks Adanthar will do this and wants to bet, send me a PM. I'd be willing to go up to $300 that he won't make it. But I'll take any bet above $50.

OKOK
 

[ QUOTE ]
If anyone thinks Adanthar will do this and wants to bet, send me a PM. I'd be willing to go up to $300 that he won't make it. But I'll take any bet above $50.

[/ QUOTE ]

Grrr.

OK maybe it's selfish but I think its WAY simpler to have just one person managing the bets. If you have a buddy you want to bet with then cool, but if you're just looking for someone to take action then PM me. I guess if you want to bet against adanthar then, well, uh, go away this is my bet [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Seriosuly though it gets nuts and borders on a thread hijack to try to make bets against adanthar here. I'm covering that side of the coin.

Everett

Re: Sidebets
 

[ QUOTE ]
If anyone thinks Adanthar will do this and wants to bet, send me a PM. I'd be willing to go up to $300 that he won't make it. But I'll take any bet above $50.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds like someone who has spun his wheels on the mini-steps.

Re: Sidebets
 

This may be a bit off topic but I just got to ask.

If one is getting freerolls from step 1 to step 3, can one just sell the "ticket" for the buyin of 50+5 and therefor make a profic of 50$ cash or can these not be sold?

Re: Sidebets
 

[ QUOTE ]
This may be a bit off topic but I just got to ask.

If one is getting freerolls from step 1 to step 3, can one just sell the "ticket" for the buyin of 50+5 and therefor make a profic of 50$ cash or can these not be sold?

[/ QUOTE ]

u cant sell

Re: Sidebets
 

[ QUOTE ]
This may be a bit off topic but I just got to ask.

If one is getting freerolls from step 1 to step 3, can one just sell the "ticket" for the buyin of 50+5 and therefor make a profic of 50$ cash or can these not be sold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, once your money enters the steps, it only comes out at the top.

Re: Sidebets
 

Ok thanks, I thought that if you could, that would make this challenge quite a bit easier:)

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

any updates?

Re: OKOK
 

Dude, I'm not sure why your upset. I read above that you'd be willing to be up to $100. I interpreted that at the time, you didn't want to bet more than $100 total besides what you had already bet against Adanthar. Now that I've read this post, I can see how you might have meant that you'd bet up to $100 with whoever wanted action. The fact is, it wasn't clear at least to me. If you don't want people taking bets against Adanthar, fine. I won't.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]


2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I logged on. Wow!

I think that if he gave up some edges early on in step 1s, he may actually have hundreds of chances to make this work.

My money says he does it.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I logged on. Wow!

I think that if he gave up some edges early on in step 1s, he may actually have hundreds of chances to make this work.

My money says he does it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity eric, how often, if he "gives up some small edges early", do you think he will bust (6-10 place) in step 1, and how often do you think he will win (to advance to step 2)?

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


2) Log onto Party, pull up the list of mini step 1s, look at number of players left, and the level.

Adanthar will have far more than 6 shots at getting to step 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

I logged on. Wow!

I think that if he gave up some edges early on in step 1s, he may actually have hundreds of chances to make this work.

My money says he does it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity eric, how often, if he "gives up some small edges early", do you think he will bust (6-10 place) in step 1, and how often do you think he will win (to advance to step 2)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's say he wins 1/10 of the time and loses 1/100 of the time :P.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]


Let's say he wins 1/10 of the time and loses 1/100 of the time :P.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's not [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Re: Sidebets
 

Lots of time to get to the top. Buy in at atleast level 2 [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] good luck

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

mainly step 5, but i have seen some at 4 and even 3.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Bump with hopes of an update.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

[ QUOTE ]
Just out of curiosity eric, how often, if he "gives up some small edges early", do you think he will bust (6-10 place) in step 1, and how often do you think he will win (to advance to step 2)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Difficult to say without more research. I did log on to play a few of these to try out a theory. I played 6 tourneys just to get a feel for them (I'm not willing to play enough to get a decent sample size) and by checking the "post and fold" until 6 left, I never finished 7-10 and finished 6th once. I had an average stack of around 450-500 when 7th place busted. I didn't win any, but I did put myself in chip position (1400+ chips) to compete for 1st place three times.

Without more research I'd estimate a strong player would win somewhere between 1/10 to 1/12 after folding all hands till final 6 players while busting out very rarely (maybe 1/50). That player would finish 6th some of the time (say 1/6) but three 6th places only counts for one bust since 6th pays $4 which could be used for 2/3 of an entry.

I'm not motivated enough right now to do the math to see what all that means, but I have no doubt this would result in a grossly low hourly earnings but hourly rate is not what is in question here.

I assume you have done quite a bit of research on this in order to accept this bet and I'd love to see your estimates after the challenge is over. I'm sure Adanthar has done his own research too. That is what makes it very interesting [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Hey Everett are you still taking sidebets? $75 says Adanthar makes it into ministep 5. PM me to work out the details about money transfer.

Joseph

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Update: I had a lot of stuff to do and played an hour of poker this weekend total, all of it royal hold'em [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I'll play a lot of these this week.

Re: **Official ADANTHAR $1k MiniStep Challenge**
 

Guys, bet is off. I lost a million playing blackjack this weekend on party and the account is gone, because I lost your money. So solly.

Sidebets so far
 

Just to make some semiofficial sidebet list....


I have $100 with ExitOnly (money will be sent at the end)
$100 with NoahSD (he sent me $100 and I'll wire back double if I lose)
$52 with dogsballs (he sent the money to me, dont ask why its 52)
Two or three other people have shown interest in bets but have not yet sent me money, so they aren't real bets yet. Hurry up before adanthar busts and I can't collect [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

And Mr. Strasser, if you lost the money that's OK, one of my mafia connections in NYC says he still has 3 grand of yours from a pot he bluffed you out of a while back...

Everett

Re: Sidebets so far
 

Good luck with that

Re: Sidebets so far
 

[ QUOTE ]

And Mr. Strasser, if you lost the money that's OK, one of my mafia connections in NYC says he still has 3 grand of yours from a pot he bluffed you out of a while back...

Everett

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, I thought Strassa's read was dead on. That was no bluff.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

$75 with AceOfSpaces has now been placed as well. He has sent me the 75. I'm sure none of you care but I want to document all this so my suckers-- I mean fellow gamblers feel safe.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet.

Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet.

In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

[ QUOTE ]
$75 with AceOfSpaces has now been placed as well. He has sent me the 75. I'm sure none of you care but I want to document all this so my suckers-- I mean fellow gamblers feel safe.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's AceOfSpades not spaces.... I want full credit for being the sucker :P

Re: Sidebets so far
 

[ QUOTE ]
I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet.

Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet.

In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious how exactly did you calculate this? With all the loopbacks, I wouldn't know how to begin to calculate this ev. My version went "I've made one ministep 5 and the other times I've tilted after busting down to ministep 1, I don't think adanthar will tilt like I do, and probably is better than I am. Oh yeah, I also played a ministep 1 w/ $6 and made it to step two." It should be interesting, adanthar keep us updated.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I pulled an all-nighter last night because I had a ton of work , and I took a procrastination break at some point to figure out how much EV I'd earned myself by making this bet.

Anyway, I actually sat down and calculated my EV on the bet based on different % chances of placing for adanthar. I was surprised by how close it was; it depended very much on tiny tweaks of what I thought was am achievable finish distribution. I'm still confident adanthar has an edge, but IMHO, you guys have concocted a very solid side bet.

In other words, we're all betting on a coin flip, and hopefully the results'll be fun :P.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm curious how exactly did you calculate this? With all the loopbacks, I wouldn't know how to begin to calculate this ev. My version went "I've made one ministep 5 and the other times I've tilted after busting down to ministep 1, I don't think adanthar will tilt like I do, and probably is better than I am. Oh yeah, I also played a ministep 1 w/ $6 and made it to step two." It should be interesting, adanthar keep us updated.

[/ QUOTE ]

You can do it with straight algebra but its not fun. It's more to just pick the finish distribution percentages and let the computer brute-force-simulate a whole bunch of em. I have a program that does some stuff that I'm currently converting to an applet to put on the web. Will post the link once I find time to go through with it.

Noah, I'm curious exactly what you did though. Shoot me a PM.

Everett

Re: Sidebets so far
 

RL update: My step-grandfather died this afternoon (it was more or less expected but still hit my stepdad pretty hard) so I'm not gonna be around much for a few days. Sorry, but poker's in second place.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

My condolences to you and your family.

Re: Sidebets so far
 

[ QUOTE ]
RL update: My step-grandfather died this afternoon (it was more or less expected but still hit my stepdad pretty hard) so I'm not gonna be around much for a few days. Sorry, but poker's in second place.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I guess all of those "Hurry up and play some damn tournaments" PMs didnt help?

Take your time.

Everett

Victory is mine!
 

Alright, this thing definitely dragged on for much longer than it should, but apparantly these ministeps were a real pain/bore to play so it took a few prods to get adanthar to finish these suckers but....

Adanthar busted. Sweeeeeeeeeeeet-- I mean, how unfortunate.

If you go to my
Ministep Calculator

you can tinker with a little applet I made to simulate the ministep challenge. It just takes your given bankroll and (based on the given percentages) simulates stepping through the levels until you either hit step 5 or don't have enough $$ to buy in any more. It does this a few thousand times (or however many times you tell it to) and spits out some data. Anyway.

I thought that the numbers that I gave Adanthar in that applet were quite generous, and he came out to be about 25% to succeed. I don't doubt that he's an outstanding tournament (and satellite) player, but a >1000% ROI is a little trickier to achieve than it seems.

I dealt with this stuff a whiiiiiiiile ago (when these ministeps were brand new) to figure out if they were worth playing. After playing a bunch to get a feel for my chances and running some numbers, I basically came to three conclusions:
1) The ROI is HUGE for a good player.
2) The variance on cashes is ENORMOUS and you need to really invest in this and be sure that you're a winner.
3) The number of games that you have to play is GINORMONSTROUS. For a strong player, on average, youll play about 80 games (mostly in the form of step 1 freerolls) for every step 5 entry that you earn. So that means 160 games per cash. Though you'll have only paid about 8 buy ins. Do the math and it's like $30-$40 bucks an hour, but considering the absurd variance, you'd have to be a very patient soul to play these properly.


I wish I could give some more satisfying numbers on Adanthar's performance (like finish distributions at each step, etc), but party is being stubborn loading the account activity so I'll give a quick synopsis (Adanthar will probably chime in later).
A) Adanthar ran badly. No doubt about that. But that's part of the intolerable variance of this little challenge.
B) He didn't get past ministep 3. He spent almost all (maybe 85%) of his steps on ministep 1.
C) I would gladly take this bet up again with anyone.



It's amazing how split the forum was on the outcome of this bet when it turned out to be so heavily one-sided (or so I still think). It just goes to show you how bad we people are, intuitively, at grasping fuzzy probabilities and understanding the depths of variance. Doing computations away from the table can help fine-tune your intuition, not to mention keep you from getting an ear full of cider.

Cheers,

Everett

Re: Victory is mine!
 

Thanks for the update EK. Stop the presses, I finally win a sidebet [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: Victory is mine!
 

so who do i owe what?

I thin kit's $100 to everet and $100 to IHKS... that right?

If so, how you guys want your money

edit: hey hey, $8 left. I'm not abandoning hope yet.

Re: Victory is mine!
 

Quick summary:

I started playing, treaded some ground for a while, then got the death in the family/running as bad as I can remember/flu combo in a span of two weeks, with a bunch of bad play mixed in. After I got back into it, I had a little bit of breathing room left and actually got to Step 3, but then ran bad *there* twice in two tries, so that was that. I still have $8 of the $30 left, but one tabling those is really painful so I basically quit/will finish it on my own time when I feel like it.

Stats, Step 1:
14 rerolls
2 losses (1 playing bad, 1 running horrible)
5 $4's (a little from column A, a little from column B)
2 Step 2's

Step 2's:
2 rerolls
1 Step 1 (running bad)
1 Step 3

Step 3's:
1 reroll
1 Step 2 (both running bad)

In conclusion, [censored] happens and I'd probably take the bet again, except, y'know, after a while this was like the most boring thing I've ever tried so I'd rather kill myself. Oh yeah, and losing with AA to AA repeatedly sucks, too.

Re: Victory is mine!
 

[ QUOTE ]
so who do i owe what?

I thin kit's $100 to everet and $100 to IHKS... that right?

If so, how you guys want your money

[/ QUOTE ]

PStars me, EverettKings (Williamsburg)

I'd also appreciate a handwritten letter admitting defeat. Something to the tune of "I'm stupid. You're smart. I was wrong. You were right. You're the best. I'm the wrost. You're very good-looking. I'm not very attractive" would suffice.

Everett

Re: Victory is mine!
 

You gloat too fast!

Adanthar is going to single table his way to the step 5's.


But yea, since he said he's taking his time, i'll admit defeat until it's overturned. If he actually gets there, you can send it on back.

You'll have your money in a day or two, waiting on a neteller thing at the moment.

Re: Victory is mine!
 

[ QUOTE ]
after a while this was like the most boring thing I've ever tried so I'd rather kill myself.

[/ QUOTE ]

That seems to be the worst part of the bet, the marathon boredom. I think I underestimated how easily you can reroll step 1s by just folding like a 5-year-old girl until the reroll point. Though you'd end up advancing like 1 in 20 times. That makes the whole process a nightmare whereby you play hundreds and hundreds of games... something neither of us counted on.

Anyway. The bet was a one-time thing, and I'm too afraid of finding a more devoted, less family-death ridden, running-better person willing to wait it out to try this again. All the cards are on the table now, so I'll be cashing out.

And good luck with everything Adanthar. This forum still needs you.

Everett