Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
pull a mike i, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Mike L, and yeah, I'll be doing that in the spring/early summer.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

That's great to hear. I liken this time in poker to the tuplip bubble, gold rush, or internet boom. Be one of the people who cashes in.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

just out of random curiosity, how do your showdown stats at party compare to other sites over these hands?

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play NL. More control.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pull a mike i, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's Mike L, and yeah, I'll be doing that in the spring/early summer.

[/ QUOTE ]

i thought it was mike i also

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Amazingly after a huge Saturday night, I am up for the month, BUT I definitely noticed that I was slightly gun shy and lost some bets on rivers since I was so accostom to being beat by the river card. I too am way overbankrolled for that game, but the doubt has to creep in. Eventually you get sick of being raised on an innocuous card on the river and having to call down becasue you think people have to be putting plays on you since they cant suck out every time. It is a difficult cycle to work through.

[/ QUOTE ]

Play NL. More control.

[/ QUOTE ]

That wasn't my quote....it was dpr's.

You probably have figured this, but FWIW
 

I am calcing this in my head, but I think this is a -3.3s.d. event for a 1.5/18 player in 40k hands.

So as with any event of course it is possible it is variance, but it is pretty unlucky if it is so. Of course this month sample is not random as you have selected your worst month so this stats is not as meaningful as many people would like it to be. Nevertheless, being over 1100 BB below expectation is pretty big swing.

Seems like as good a time as any to evaluate some plays.

Would be interesting to run the sim to see how many players out of 1000 1.5/18 players would experience this bad a swing in 500k hands.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber.

It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a belated joke

[/ QUOTE ]

I promise this is no joke.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

bk, thank you for making me feel better about my cold run at sngs....

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm..

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh?

but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.

[/ QUOTE ]

Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber.

It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Since september first i'm down the following amount of bets at party poker. Not including skins. I'm doing well enough on other sites (up over 1100 bets...) but this run at party is just sickening.

-107 at 100/200
-110 at 50/100
-94 at 30/60
-95 at 20/40
-95 at 10/20
I know this equals 500 but from peak til bottom it's 581. Yikes. I rule at poker.
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21...ck/600bets.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]
You again? I told you not to call me unless it's an emergency.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
my bankroll is super inflated for the limits I'm currently

[/ QUOTE ]

pull a mike l, buy a house.

[/ QUOTE ]

And some mutual funds, and anything else that you can. Passive income is goot. Then again, you know this already.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, it does if we assume that BK was playing well and that he was a winner in the games.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

Good heavens, man...I want to cry for you. I just called my girlfriend in here to show her this so that she'd understand what I mean by "swingy".

Yo, you wanna kick my ass heads-up or something - might get you back going. Seriously. OTOH, think of how good the upswing is gonna feel.... [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Best of luck, dude.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Unfortunately I still have you beat.

http://img432.imageshack.us/img432/1...idetime7ss.jpg

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF?? Is this graph forged??

If it's not...I'm so, so, so sorry Mr. NLSoldier.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not forged [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
omg NLSoldier. DeathDonkey told me about this when we were out last night and I nearly cried for you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Trust me, it does if we assume that BK was playing well and that he was a winner in the games.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this graph pretty much shoes that (only about the last year or so...from my current db):
http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y21.../400khands.jpg

It's kinda amazing how during the game it feels so streaky (and it is) but when you get into the bigger picture you can barely notice the blips. I was going to wait til 500k hands to post this but now seems like a decent time.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

Stop bragging. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Stop bragging. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You get 1 extra piece of candy tonight cause you got that in there first. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

It shows that even over the sample size of all your play, your results correlate far less diretly to your skill level than people would like to think. People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]

People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone have the link to this? Thanks.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

People should take a look at the sims GoT posted a while back and extrapolate taking into account the fact that the people running good at the right times will often move up in limits. Then take a look at the disparities in results. The range is pretty stunning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone have the link to this? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

link

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]
Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

where did you get the program that creates this graph? I'm assuming its a PT add-on?

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

I will post this even though I realize no one really cares about micro limit players.

I just finished my worst month ever of poker in 16 months of playing. It began one day after the Party split. Over 75K hands of 1/2 short, I was a 3BB/100 winner with a few handfuls of 7-9K hand breakeven streaks and your usual smattering of 100-150BB dowswings.

I continued to play the skins after Party split to finish off bonuses. During the 20K hands I played, I had downswings of 135, 250, and 100. The crowning jewel was finally finishing the bonus on the skins and hopping over to Pokerstars for a change of pace and to play the 2/4 short games. Immediate 100BB drop. Literally every time I've taken a shot at a higher limit I take it straight in the ass.

Normal stats for me are 33/57 for went to sd and won at sd.

This month since the party split:
22K hands: 33/52.5

Just gotten the [censored] kicked out of me all month. I don't even want to play anymore. October was a blur of river cards that killed my hand, missed flops and turn raises holding ace high.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

i feel your pain, i feel your pain.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow how original

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

i think it's worth noting. i've had it happen myself where i would be 6-tabling, playing an 3 tables per site. one account would get pummeled day after day, and i would have to withdraw winnings from the winning one just to keep the losing one with enough money for me to be comfortable. i've had it go on like that in both directions several times, and each time i've thought, "boy it would sure suck to have just been playing 3 tables on that account." and before somebody points out that it would be more focused, it's not really relevant. both sites had equal amounts of skill, tilt, tiltlessness, or whatever applied because it was all done at the same time. one of my dudes had an extended bad run.

i think it's more meaningful when it's looked at like that instead of when you're site-bouncing and one site has problems, there are many more variables in that instance because you've got different competition, different focus levels, etc depending on when you played.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why does he always seem to whine about it?

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you ran so well on the way up I honestly don't think you're fully prepared for real variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, bike has had a -45k day. He doesn't need you telling him about variance, n00b.

[/ QUOTE ]

then why does he always seem to whine about it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Wait a sec if I always whine about it like you say then wouldn't you know that I've had my fair share of variance?

Don't try to put it on me.

Re: Something with the date.....
 

[ QUOTE ]
Man, I know how you feel and its gotta be even worse for you. Oct, has been my worst month ever, even though it was more break even for me. It seems to be suck out month at PP.

Most days this month I have been laughing (with insanity) as I get beat on yet again. I logged 5 winning days this month and SD stats of 38/30 were quite regular.


[/ QUOTE ]
I can relate completely to everything you just said. It's been unreal. I believe yesterday I got it all in on the flop 4 times with the stone cold nuts and lost to bottom two pairs boating up... or TPTK hitting runners for the boat. You know that feeling when theres only one hand out there that beats you and since you've been running bad you just assume they have it... yep, know that all too well. Or getting KK and just playing the hand to see what type of beat you can add to the archives... yep. This month sucked for me:

http://jupiter.walagata.com/w/python49/rofl.JPG


I'm lovin it.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

right on time.

Barron

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

I hit a terrible downswing at the Stars 11s and decided it was a good time to move up. For the past two weeks I've been playing 11s and 22s side by side, two of each. I'm crushing the 22s but continue to bleed out at the 11s.

Maybe it's time to move up again.

Re: minus 581 bets.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't think it shows that at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it show?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nothing? You took a biased sample of your data and you're trying to extrapolate something from it. Josh's analogy earlier in the thread is correct. Calling this a "500whatever bet downswing" is really a misnomer given what else you've told us.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude-

its lonely at the top, BK was trying to fit in with the rest of us poker mortals. leave the man alone.