Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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MP3 calls....

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(MP3) rarely calls anything on any street. He's certainly the raise or fold type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason.

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What do you make of MP3's call pre-flop? Also, against a guy who will be very suspicious of your move (and who knows that you can easily put him on making a move) and is not afraid to mix it up, I don't like your move.

If it weren't for your comments re: MP3, I would like the move. It just sounds that this is the kind of guy who will gamble with his tourney life getting a nice overlay and maybe having the best hand, even with something pretty marginal.

I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I like the move, takes a lot of guts and I think is a winning strategy.
The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy (well it's the kind of thing that isn't easy for me anyway).

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That would be the perfect image. They would have no clue what to think of me. I am tight, but I risk all my chips with J9s?! I play one hand every 30 minutes, but it's a bluff? What do I do when I get a real hand?! They would have no clue how to play against me.

I certianly don't make plays like this very often, so if they start getting suspicious of my big all-ins, that's great for me.

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I may not be as experienced as you are Justin, but I do love the impression that you can put on people when your playing history at the table speaks for itsself (1 hand every 30 minutes or so). This tight image can confuse players greatly, and the confusion will generally create fear in them, I can get the same kind of respect when I push all in at the casinos as well, even if I do have a semi-marginal hand people will be too confused to call or feel way behind if they do.

Re: More Info About SB 625 Raise
 

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Everyone at the table knew what happened with the SB. While he was still semi-confused, Dave actually flipped the purple chip over so the big 500 written on it was showing. I would be very surprised if anyone at the table was not aware of what happened.

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hmmm, knowing that the SB mistake was that obvious, I like it less. It's probably still a good move, though. If the MP3 is a 3 level thinker, then he knows that you know that he knows the SB made a mistake and he knows that you would be suspicious of his wake up raise and therefore put you on exactly the type of hand you had. So, depending on how much gamble he had in him (with a small pair) and how confident he is in his reads, your FE might go down somewhat.

Overall, though, great recognition of a profitable situation.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

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Sorry, but you're an idiot.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

MP3 has a much wider range: 55++, A8s++, suited broadways (~200 hands)


Here is my at the table back of the envelope math (no calculator)

SB calls ~60 hands out of ~1200 or 5%
MP1 calls ~60 hands out of 200 hands or about 30%
MP3 calls 70% of his range since he will be getting ~2:1 on his money.

Ignore multiple callers.

SB and MP1 become 1 player with a combined calling rate of 35%, MP2 calls 70%, Hero wins the pot ~20% (.7 X .3) of the time winning 20% X T13,500 (uncontested) EV= ~2700 chips.

Hero is 30% against SB and MP1's range; 35% X T24,000 = ~8000
EV = 35% X T8,000 = T2,600.

Hero is 40% against MP3 range; 45% X T24,000 = ~11,000
EV = 45% X T11,000 = ~T5,000

total EV = T2700 +T2600 + T5000 = ~T10,000 or EV neutral.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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type. He has about 14k chips, and does not seem to be afraid to put them in for any reason. He is definately a thinking player, possibly even a very good player

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I'd be worried here that he could deduce the same thing I had deduced, and figure out that I am not strong. Its not terrible, but undoubtedly risky.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

MP3 has a much wider range: 55++, A8s++, suited broadways (~200 hands)


Here is my at the table back of the envelope math (no calculator)

SB calls ~60 hands out of ~1200 or 5%
MP1 calls ~60 hands out of 200 hands or about 30%
MP3 calls 70% of his range since he will be getting ~2:1 on his money.

Ignore multiple callers.

SB and MP1 become 1 player with a combined calling rate of 35%, MP2 calls 70%, Hero wins the pot ~20% (.7 X .3) of the time winning 20% X T13,500 (uncontested) EV= ~2700 chips.

Hero is 30% against SB and MP1's range; 35% X T24,000 = ~8000
EV = 35% X T8,000 = T2,600.

Hero is 40% against MP3 range; 45% X T24,000 = ~11,000
EV = 45% X T11,000 = ~T5,000

total EV = T2700 +T2600 + T5000 = ~T10,000 or EV neutral.

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you really think that people are calling the 4th raise (no matter what whacky action got them there, with hands like AQ?) Don't you read all the 'should i fold KK preflop' threads over in MTT?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

Vince

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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The results aren't necessary. It is evident you would't post this hand if you lost so you won. Yawn, next hand please.

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I could see ZJ posting this after getting called by something like 55 and losing.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Unfortunately I don't have much to add, but I am interested to hear the results. I was in a similar hand at last year's aruba tournament, except I was the one who made the accidental raise.

However, since he only called preflop, that would have me worried. Did he decide to get tricky with a monster? Either way, I think you made the right move, he is trying to steal here more times than not.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I'm sure your chips would leave skid marks on the table if you were in the SB or MP1.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

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I don't think anyone disagrees that this range is likely to call. The point is that a great majority of this range is unlikely to exist given the play up to this point. For example, it's highly unlikely SB would flatcall (he didn't flatcall but he intended to) with AA-QQ, it's similarly unlikely that MP1 would just call the re-raise with any of these hands (esp. since it's obvious that SB didn't intend to raise), and MP3 would have re-raised with these holdings the first time around. This is +EV against the range that would call us, AND is likely to be out i.e. not TT+, AQ+.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

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Yes, briefly. If I have one of the legit hands mentioned above though, I'm definately gonna push them. Anything else just seems suspicious.

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I might be misunderstanding you, but it seems like you're saying that when you have AA-QQ making a smaller raise than all-in is too suspicious and people will often fold.

Doesn't that make this a perfect opportunity to make such a raise, assuming that people don't know that you wouldn't do this with AA-QQ because it's too suspicious?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy

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Whereas most people would assume that doubling up would be the best outcome of an all-in...I believe you slightly overemphasize meta-game considerations.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

These 18 hands AA-QQ will not substantially affect my crude calculations.

EV Neutral, to which I would add that if its EV neutral with so much dead money in the pot, then its really not a good play.

The move is great only if players will fold, and my uncontested number is 20%. The rest is a crapshoot where hero has the worst of it, but an overlay.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

If I’m Tricky MP3 Guy, here’s what’s going thru my head:
“I put you on AT-A7s, 88-44, and perhaps some QJ, J9s, 87s type hands. I think you raise the first time around with AA-JJ/AK so I rule those out. I don’t think you take so long to push in with AQ/AJ or TT/99 type hands that might have given respect on the first go round. But you are a tight player, so you’d have folded complete crap the first time around. You likely saw SB do his weird thing, and you know I’m capable of making a play for the pot here, so you could certainly be doing this with a wider range of hands. On balance I figure you for something like 77, A9s or QJs. I must call 7,650 to win ~13,550, so I’m getting almost 1.8 to 1. Given your hand range, I think I need to call with most hands here, especially since I’ll still have 4k in chips if I lose which is plenty of play. On the one hand, I’ve been able to steal and run over the table to get chips. On the other hand, if I fold this now, maybe others play back at me”

Based on that, I think he calls you with 98s+, J9s+, A8+. So what does he have? I’d give him the same range I give you and expect to see A7s, 66 or T9s, and I’d expect a call here ~60% of the time from this type of player

Note: I've never played tourneys this big
--greg

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

As you say, I don't think Zee can reasonably expect MP3 to put him on a big pair. But a hand like 99 or TT, sure, and I think he is mindful of the fact that many of the hands MP3 is likely to have (mid to low pairs, suited connectors) are way behind 99 or TT......

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Wow, do you really think he puts ZJ on that range of hands without knowing anything about him? Given that he's seen him play just a single hand where he limped and folded to a reraise? You don't think a tight player might take some time before deciding to push with TT or 99 there?

I do agree that one thing that is problematic here with regards to fold equity is the fact that MP3 still has a not insignificant amount of chips left if he calls and loses.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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#2 He puts in the third raise preflop but it doesn't seem to be enough to shut out his opposition, he seems content to let them come along for 2150 preflop and see what happens.

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Good point, although if he views ZJ as being as tight as he has played so far, maybe he thinks it's at least highly likely that he will at minimum get rid of him and be able to play the hand with position if he is called at all. And if he is reading the SB and MP1 as ZJ is, he may believe his chances of taking the pot down preflop to actually be pretty good. Given how aggressive he apparently is, and the fact that he at least has ZJ and MP1 outchipped significantly, I think we can still safely say that he probably doesn't have a big hand.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I guess I mean don't think there's much to debate about whether the play was reasonable. Obviously it's also OK to fold J9s to the third raise. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

To answer your questions:

MP3 is supposedly highly aggressive. Most highly aggressive players have figured out that they should be highly aggressive with their AA/KK as well as their other hands.

I do think the fold equity plus the showdown equity plus the dead money makes this pretty safely plus EV.

I think MP3 is going to fold fairly often even if he's suspicious. That's because I think there are hands like 86s in his range.

Best,
Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

At a tough table, it might be even better. Chips are hard to come by at a tough table--try to get them any way you can.

Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I read through the hand a few times and the responses and I have come to this.

No one has any reads on you other than super-tight, although 30 minutes of playing really isn't long enough to have this image locked in completely, most players will give you the benefit of the doubt.

However, I think most good players are not going to give you credit for a monster b/c

After a stand EP raise and two callers, you just called.

You said the whole table was aware of the "mistaken" raise.

This doesn't mean anyone can call your all-in IMO, but I think if someone has a hand, like MP3, he is going to have to discount (probably not completely, but to some degree) the higher range of hands.

With all that said, even if I have pocket nines and can limit your range, a lot of players still will not call what might be a coinflip at such an early stage.

Basically, my point is that the play will work, but certainly cannot work all the time given the process of the hand.

-SC

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Was there any concern on your part that you were not an unknown player to MP3 and that how you had played for the first 35 minutes would not actually be determining your image to him?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I put this scumbag on Ace Jack not suited.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

They would affect your calculations a great deal. Once AA-QQ are assigned a very low probability of being out (JJ also low due to only 3 combos possible) ZJ's wins-when-called shoots through the roof. You can do the numbers yourself, but it should be fairly obvious. It also decreases how often he will be called, though this affect isn't as big as the aforementioned one.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

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He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money.

Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

i've enjoyed you only posting 7 times in the past 2 months.

please keep this up.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Your right, it would affect the numbers, I don't think you can take these hands out SB's range or the QQ out of MP1's range.

The qualitative result is that hero gets called to much for this to be a good play.

In the cases where there are multiple callers which I ignored, hero is much worse off.

Also just because someone won their qualifier online doesn't mean they won't make a difficult call even if it takes them a while.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

I like the play for the simple reason that MP3 IS so aggressive, which increases the chances that

a)he came in with a marginal hand in the first place, and
b)he might well see an opportunity to take the pot after the accidental raise.

I mean, even if he knows you don't have much, he can't call your all-in if he doesn't either.

(Edit: I don't seem to be nearly as worried about SB and MP1 as everyone else is. If ZJ has faith in his read on them, then he should fire away.)

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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SB is a middle aged guy, (35ish).....

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I stopped reading at this point...LMFAO [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I put this scumbag on Ace Jack not suited.

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For some reason, I just can't stop laughing at this. Awesome second post.

As for the hand, I think you can analyze it all day, but in the end, you took a gamble. There are too many things going on here to say with any certainty where you stand. A lot of the normal calculations just don't apply, due to the accidental raise.

The main thing going for you is that you were the first one to get all your chips into a strange pot, and you have a fairly tight image. Hopefully that's enough to take it down, while everyone sits and scratches their heads. Hope it worked out.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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QQ out of MP1's range.

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who calls three times preflop w/ QQ?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

Vince

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I don't think this is the right way of looking at it. If ZJ believes he has a decent sized overlay when compared to the price he is being offered/giving then it's a good spot to try and accumulate some chips. i.e. this might be a pretty darn good spot if his read is correct and not one worth passing up.

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I predict he called w/ 88 and you hit a 9.

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I like your read better....it's less dramatic. I was talking about this thread with a friend on AIM today and I guessed that he got called by 77 and made a flush [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Hey, ZJ. Results anytime now...

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

Well we know he definately got called for MLG to have known about the hand. . .

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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You forgot to figure in the liklihood that a better situation will arise in which to risk all of your chips when you determined calling was better than folding.

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He didn't forget to do that, he knew doing that would be a waste of time. You don't pass up an EV of 1500 chips, unless you hate money.

Matt

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I assume you mean 1500 chips at this stage in the tournament right?

If your stack is 10k, then 1500 chips EV is equivalent to going all-in heads up as a 57.5% favorite.

If you were playing in a 512 person coin flipping tournament, then being a 57.5% favorite to win each coin flip would make you roughly 3.5 times more likely to win the tournament then the average person who is 50/50 on each coin flip. (You'd win about 1/145 times, they'd win 1/512.)

I imagine that applying this to a poker tournament is a tad more complex, but is that the basic idea why you don't want to pass up 1,500 chips at this stage in the tourney?

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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I assume you mean 1500 chips at this stage in the tournament right?


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Sure, although I'm not too big on passing up edges at any stage.

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If your stack is 10k, then 1500 chips EV is equivalent to going all-in heads up as a 57.5% favorite.


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Yes and no. Those two situations are equivalent in EV, but in ZeeJustin's hand, a good chunk of that EV comes when he doesn't have turn his hand over. So this situation is actually less risky than the all-in with an edge.

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If you were playing in a 512 person coin flipping tournament, then being a 57.5% favorite to win each coin flip would make you roughly 3.5 times more likely to win the tournament then the average person who is 50/50 on each coin flip. (You'd win about 1/145 times, they'd win 1/512.)

I imagine that applying this to a poker tournament is a tad more complex, but is that the basic idea why you don't want to pass up 1,500 chips at this stage in the tourney?

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Yes, that's the basic idea. Also, if you pass on this hypothetical 57.5% coin flip, it will take some time before you find your "better" situation to get your money in. If instead you had called for all your chips and won, you would've been able to use your skill with the new stack. So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later.

Best,
Matt

Re: Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba
 

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So if you want to wait for a "better" spot to double up, it has to be significantly better, because if you double up here, you'll have more chips later.

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i don't understand why this is such a hard concept for people to grasp. taking a double up now doesn't disallow me to take (bigger?) advantage of the everpresent 'double up in the future with a greater edge'. It reduces that chance somewhat (if i lose i'm out) but you can't simply factor the all of the risk and none of the reward.

such a simple, yet misunderstood concept that so many people don't get. nice post.