Re: The lottery is +EV
 

i didn't win....what a [censored] sham

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Whats that movie where a bunch of friends win the lottery chipping in weekly? It ends with one friend killing all the other friends gruesomely so they can keep all the money. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Sounds like Reindeer Games, except that wasn't about lottery money.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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yet another retard uses +EV in a -EV fashion....

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huh?

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Why do you guys even pay attention to this guy. He's a 20+ year old gamer with a Dawson's Creek avatar. What can he post that is going to be worth reading anyway. If I wasn't such a nice guy he'd already be on ignore.

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yeah, i was going to respond and say how wrong he was, but then i realized i would probably just be wasting my time. bummer.

rj

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my response was meant to be ironic. i use the dawson avatar because it's memorable and i think it's funny. i could be cool and use a face shot of myself or some cartoon guy slamming his face into the keyboard, but this one is funny to me.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Killing yourself could be +EV

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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anybody know anybody personally that's won a big lottery score? i plan on doing it soon, just gotta find somebody to mentor me when i'm retarded rich....

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About ten years ago a guy in my bowling league went in with a few guys from his work. They bought a shjtload of tickets and one of them hit. IIRC they took the annuity option for $8k per month.

Results, sort of
 

No winner, everyone is still working. For now. The next draw is on Friday, and the jackpot is now $250 MM. We will have one fewer member in our consortium for the next go round, so I can expect to have like ~$11 MM after I win and pay taxes and all. What should I plan on buying? Is MC Hammer's old mansion in Fremont CA still for sale?

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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anybody know anybody personally that's won a big lottery score? i plan on doing it soon, just gotta find somebody to mentor me when i'm retarded rich....

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About ten years ago a guy in my bowling league went in with a few guys from his work. They bought a shjtload of tickets and one of them hit. IIRC they took the annuity option for $8k per month.

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Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

dude, lots of dumb people who would donk off the lump sum in 2 years buy lottery tickets. for someone like that taking the 8k/month option is a pretty good move.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

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Thanks professor. Because nobody here can do math.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Good luck trying to avoid the taxes on a $120 million jackpot.

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Hitting powerball is 120million:1. When the prize is over 120 million it is +EV if u assume that only 1 person will hit. Being +EV is not very exciting alone, especially when its absolute value is $.0000000000000001.

Later, Indy

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Re: The lottery is +EV
 

http://images.art.com/images/product...0/10101880.jpg

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Hey, I won $10. 2 numbers plus the mega number. now I can blow that $10 on tickets for fridays drawing.

Re: Results, sort of
 

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I can expect to have like ~$11 MM after I win and pay taxes and all. What should I plan on buying? Is MC Hammer's old mansion in Fremont CA still for sale?

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1. Apartment that allows pets
2. DOGS
3. More bookshelves.

Re: Results, sort of
 

NY- where you hit an 11M score and still have to live in an apartment.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

UHOH!

Re: Results, sort of
 

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NY- where you hit an 11M score and still have to live in an apartment.

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Apartment is a catchall in NY and can refer to renting or owning. But now is a pretty bad time to buy, methinks.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

If you net $60M for a few dollars, would you REALLY consider the bet -EV?

If so, your standards are higher than mine.

Re: Results, sort of
 

Put in in the bank/investments and live off of the interest forever

Re: Results, sort of
 

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Put in in the bank/investments and live off of the interest forever

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I get to live forever too?

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

"be warned that there is quite a bit of legal jurisprudence on lottery agreements among friends/co-workers. there is a chance your agreement might not consitute a contract in the eyes of the court. "

That's why my pool agreement/membership form is 7 pages long.

Re: Results, sort of
 

If you can beat odds of 175M:1, anything is possible.

For $5M, I'll freeze you until it IS possible. Money in advance, please.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Mega Millions up to $250 mill. No one won. Im sure I can scrounge up $10 in change that I find around my room and play. Ill post my numbers here after I get the tickets.

Re: Results, sort of
 

The way I see it is I either I hit the megamillions tonight or I don't. It's a 50/50 shot to win a million bucks and people say it's -EV? Whatever!

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout &amp; taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

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does this include the odds if you hit 5 numbers, 4 numbers, and all the other [censored] you can win with as well?

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Yes, it took into consideration all payouts. EV of a $1 mega millions ticket if their is no jackpot payout is about 14 cents. Lump sum payment I used was a very rough estimate however. And 3% state tax (Illinois) was used. So my calculation isn't 100% accurate, but I don't think it's very far off.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Last time Mega Millions was in the $175,000,000 range (about 3 months ago) I did some rough EV calculations taking into consideration a lump sum payout &amp; taxes. Buying a ticket becomes EV neutral when the Jackpot ~$285,000,000. Powerball has fewer numbers and becomes neutral ~$200,000,000. That being said I have 5 mega millions tickets for tonight.

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I think this is still too low. You must also factor in that the higher the jackpot the more likely you are to split the pot with one or more other winners. Occasionally you hear about these huge pots being won by a single person, but usually its two or more.
--
Scott

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How does the EV change when 2 people win $125,000,000 each instead of 1 person winning $250,000,000? The only way your EV would decline is if you pool your money within a group and therfore can not win 100% of the jackpot.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

i've been playing this damn lotto for 2 weeks. everytime i drive home from school on the freeway, i pass this huge billboard with the jackpots. and everyday it kept getting bigger. i couldn't stand it anymore so i started buying tickets.

$250 million
$37 million

holy fuking sh1t. a quarter of a fuking billion.

i have never asked for anything in my life, just let me hit this damn thing. just once, im not asking for much.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

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don't be stupid.

"A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket."


hmmm

$197.6 million

or

$100 million

anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Anybody who takes the annuity option is dumb. The discount rate on the lump sum is something like 4%.

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don't be stupid.

"A lucky player who wins $200 million, would receive equal payments of approximately $7.6 million a year (before taxes) for the next 26 years or the cash option would result in a prize higher than $100 million before taxes. A retailer who sells a winning ticket worth $200 million would receive a bonus of one million dollars (the highest bonus available) for selling the winning ticket."


hmmm

$197.6 million

or

$100 million

anyone who takes the lump sum is a dum fuk

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I really hope your jopking. Do you understand the concepts of Time Value of Money or Return on Investment?

If not, how about you send me $10,000, I'll agree to pay you $1050 every year for the next 10 years.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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$250 million
$37 million

i have never asked for anything in my life,

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Liar. And what's the 37 million? Did you mean 137M for the cash prize?

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Mega Millions up to $250 mill. No one won. Im sure I can scrounge up $10 in change that I find around my room and play. Ill post my numbers here after I get the tickets.

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So I can play the same numbers and cut your prize in half? Or so I'll know whether to move to your neighborhood?

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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$250 million
$37 million

i have never asked for anything in my life,

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Liar. And what's the 37 million? Did you mean 137M for the cash prize?

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no, its 2 separate jackpots. one is for the mega millions(250). the other one is for the california suppoer lotto, which is up to 41 million right now.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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I just bought (partially) a lottery ticket for the first time and it's a good move. Everyone at work is buying a share of a ticket (apparently the jackpot in NY is high right now) at the urging of one of our admins. If they won and I was the guy who didn't get rich because I made a smart gamble, I would have to kill myself. Thus, the infinitesimal probability of not having to kill myself tomorrow is +EV.

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There's no way I wouldn't blow my brains out if all my co-workers quit work rich and I had to stay on because I hadn't chipped in. That kept me buying tickets too. This is an excellent reason.

But when some people started trying to up the bi-weekly contributions to 5 and even 25 or 50 dollars, I got kind of pissed off and voted against it. I didn't want them murdering me that way! A buck or even two at a shot I don't mind, but five or 50 bucks? Screw that, that much I can actually imagine spending. Keeping it down to 1 or 2 dollars was a life and death struggle.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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This is just a recipe for disaster. I especially like how after the tickets are bought everyone sits around and talks about how they'll spend their share.

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That's the fun and really the entire value of it. You're buying a few moments of happy fantasy. It's the people who talk about it as an investment that seriously scare the living crap out of me. Those people should have their ties, shoelaces, and belt buckles confiscated and be locked up somewhere soft and safe before they hurt themselves or others.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

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Whats that movie where a bunch of friends win the lottery chipping in weekly? It ends with one friend killing all the other friends gruesomely so they can keep all the money. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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I think you've just described a universal human fantasy.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

I think I saw on the news yesterday that the California lottery was then 250 million.

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

I won!!! $3!!

Re: The lottery is +EV
 

Are you looking for backers, sfer? PM me if yes.