Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]

I know. I've had a few 150 drops, and just had a 200BB drop. I think I'm dealing with them OK, as I KNOW it is not about NOW but about the long road. That said, if I have a 500BB drop, I'm not sure how I'll react.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to talk about 500BB drops PM me. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bob,

Your benefits package turn this.

Yes you could gross more playing poker. But you are going to be incurring additional expenses.

Off hand I would say matching social security would take out a chunk. The replacing your health insurance. As well as retirement benefits and stuff like that.

If you were saying you were going to go get your masters or something like that, I would say it is a good idea. But not for a career.

I know sometimes you like to let off steam after bad runs. But I wonder if keeping your teaching job might be better for your emotional health as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if I kill a kid? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I don't intend to make poker a career.

I agree that the benefits package is important, but at what point do I give that up? Is it worth 10K? 20K? IF I KNEW I was going to make 100K, would it be worth it to give up the benefits? I know the insurance comes out to abouy 5K, and I will miss out on some matching funds from the 403(b) which amounts to about 1500. I am guessing the year of pension I will miss is worth about 4K. Assuming I made 70K, I intend to put at least 7K of that into retirement.

I have taught for 9 years. I can always go back. I will have more free time, which I think many are overlooking here. I live simply. I don't needs lots of money, but IMO there is a lot to be made now with online poker. I don't think it is absurd to think that I could be at 10/20 and winning at more than 1bb/100. I am a nut and work really hard on my game. I'm rambling......

Re: If you were me..............
 

I second this thought
3 months off a year + spring break + xmas break + every holiday in the world
Stick w/ it
And be a little more aggressive moving up

I hope to one day teach so I can dedicate more time to playing cards, its either that or landlording....

Currently I work for a contractor.... 8 holidays and 2 weeks vacation

I am envious of your situation....

By holding a full time job you can afford to move up much faster

Just my thoughts

Re: If you were me..............
 

The 5-10 numbers make me a bit nervous. It would make me question if I was truly a winning player, at that limit

You said 300 hands an hour so I am assuming you are 3 tablng the 5-10 SH, you can make the same at the 3-6 limits 4 tabling with your winrate. (excluding rakeback) If you add 1 extra table when going from short to full you willl still be easily able to keep up with the pace of the game.

I think if you are counting on the extra income from rakeback to give your winnings a boost need you could be making a mistake.

Are you the kind of person who gets stressed easily over a 200BB slide? OR can you just shrug it easily off and say thats poker?

YOu will have a lot of downswings at the 5-10 with a .88BB/100 winrate, with your higher winrate at 3-6 your downswing will be less severe.

As for what your winrate should be I can't say as it will vary from person to person. Soenone who makes 100K a year will want amuch higher winrate than someone who makes 30K a year.

If you are willing to live with the fact you might make a little less money then if you were teaching and just wanted to take a year off for the hell of it then go for it.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
Teach and play in your spare time. Keep trying to move up in limits. If you are successful in moving up you can still teach, make more than 76K from poker in your spare time and still have plenty of free time to do other things in life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Max is wise.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bob,

Your benefits package turn this.

Yes you could gross more playing poker. But you are going to be incurring additional expenses.

Off hand I would say matching social security would take out a chunk. The replacing your health insurance. As well as retirement benefits and stuff like that.

If you were saying you were going to go get your masters or something like that, I would say it is a good idea. But not for a career.

I know sometimes you like to let off steam after bad runs. But I wonder if keeping your teaching job might be better for your emotional health as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if I kill a kid? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I don't intend to make poker a career.

I agree that the benefits package is important, but at what point do I give that up? Is it worth 10K? 20K? IF I KNEW I was going to make 100K, would it be worth it to give up the benefits? I know the insurance comes out to abouy 5K, and I will miss out on some matching funds from the 403(b) which amounts to about 1500. I am guessing the year of pension I will miss is worth about 4K. Assuming I made 70K, I intend to put at least 7K of that into retirement.

I have taught for 9 years. I can always go back. I will have more free time, which I think many are overlooking here. I live simply. I don't needs lots of money, but IMO there is a lot to be made now with online poker. I don't think it is absurd to think that I could be at 10/20 and winning at more than 1bb/100. I am a nut and work really hard on my game. I'm rambling......

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not doubting anything you said. I guess I am just more or less putting myself in your position.

With me it is hard to visualise because I have a two year old, am divorced and making child support and alimony payments. Stuff like that, so stability has to be near the top of my priorities.

Overall, your situation sounds close to ideal. I would like it better if you were already at 10/20, with 1000BB BR. Because if you hit a bad patch you could drop down to 5/10 and still make your "nut". Where I think now if "Armageddon" happend, you would be looking at 3/6 and that would make it tough.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are willing to live with the fact you might make a little less money then if you were teaching and just wanted to take a year off for the hell of it then go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am very conservative in my calculations, and I know I could live on less than I make teaching. Easily.

I find it curious that you think I should consider 3/6, even though my sample sizes for 3/6 and 5/10 are about the same. (I was at closer to 1.4 in 5/10 until I dropped 200BB in my last 5K hands. I know I have leaks and am working on them, but IMO I have run bad for all but 15K hands in that game.) I know 3/6 is always an option, but IMO I can beat 5/10. I'm not trying to be arrogant, I just work hard and am pretty disciplined. I appreciate your input, as it helps me think things through.

Re: If you were me..............
 

What school are you at, Bob?

I voted teach, but it's close. However, after reading the thread I could see taking a year off. The key for me is that it's a sabbatical, and the job will be waiting for you when you get back. I'm assuming that there are benefits as far as salary and pension goes to sticking with the same school - and if you can pick right back up after a year the same levels that's a good thing? Better than having to find a new job at some other school.

This is the time to take advantage of poker, and if you can really focus on improving your game I could see you moving up and beating bigger games. This will improve your earn in the future as you get back into teaching and continue playing poker for supplementary income. What the hell, give it a shot. But avoid the temptation to turn it into 2 or 3 years off - I think longterm a nice salary working 9 months of the year with those benefits will be more important.

Good luck either way.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bob,

Your benefits package turn this.

Yes you could gross more playing poker. But you are going to be incurring additional expenses.

Off hand I would say matching social security would take out a chunk. The replacing your health insurance. As well as retirement benefits and stuff like that.

If you were saying you were going to go get your masters or something like that, I would say it is a good idea. But not for a career.

I know sometimes you like to let off steam after bad runs. But I wonder if keeping your teaching job might be better for your emotional health as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

But what if I kill a kid? [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I don't intend to make poker a career.

I agree that the benefits package is important, but at what point do I give that up? Is it worth 10K? 20K? IF I KNEW I was going to make 100K, would it be worth it to give up the benefits? I know the insurance comes out to abouy 5K, and I will miss out on some matching funds from the 403(b) which amounts to about 1500. I am guessing the year of pension I will miss is worth about 4K. Assuming I made 70K, I intend to put at least 7K of that into retirement.

I have taught for 9 years. I can always go back. I will have more free time, which I think many are overlooking here. I live simply. I don't needs lots of money, but IMO there is a lot to be made now with online poker. I don't think it is absurd to think that I could be at 10/20 and winning at more than 1bb/100. I am a nut and work really hard on my game. I'm rambling......

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not doubting anything you said. I guess I am just more or less putting myself in your position.

With me it is hard to visualise because I have a two year old, am divorced and making child support and alimony payments. Stuff like that, so stability has to be near the top of my priorities.

Overall, your situation sounds close to ideal. I would like it better if you were already at 10/20, with 1000BB BR. Because if you hit a bad patch you could drop down to 5/10 and still make your "nut". Where I think now if "Armageddon" happend, you would be looking at 3/6 and that would make it tough.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see your point. I forgot to mention that I have 5K in my box at Canterbury, so I guess that could be part of my roll, too. Basically right now I have 26K. I think that should be enough to count as roll + 5-6 months security. I hope.

Re: If you were me..............
 

Good input. Thanks.

Re: If you were me..............
 

Bob -

I voted teach but it's close. What prevents me from even considering it is the amount of money I need to have (which you do have) and the retirement/benefits. However, it does look like you reasoned all of that out already.

When I mentor college students who are considering entering teaching as a profession, I say, "If you can see yourself now in another occupation, don't be a teacher - you will not look at the benefits of teaching, you will look at how much x I could make or I don't want to put up with this junk from (state,district,parent,student) and not focus on the positives."

Before I found a new teaching position in another state, I took the leave of absence from my former school system. I can go back and my benefits (retirement) would stay. If that is your situation too, then I would attempt it.

FWIW

PB

Re: If you were me..............
 

After reading the discussion and your further input. I am going to say it is close.

It sounds like you need/want a break from your job. You are not telling them to "get f#$@ed" and can go back.

It sounds like you can at least minimise any short term (short term being one year) oppurtunity costs. With your winnings

You are not putting anyone else at risk with your decision.

It sounds like you really want to do it.

So my answer now is this: It is not what I would do in your situation. But, there is really nothing I can find that is "stupid" about the idea of taking one year off to play poker and decide what direction you want the next few years of your life to go.

You may be giving up a little financially, but it sounds like emotionally/psychlogicaly you might need this. So it could be an even trade... utility wise.

You have convinced me for whatever that is worth.

Re: If you were me..............
 

Imagine the first day of school is tomorrow.

If this makes you want to vomit, run and hide, or kill something, take the year off.

Otherwise, teach and play and improve.

Re: If you were me..............
 

Online poker is a burnout waiting to happen. Especially when you're multi-tabling. It might seem like a breeze right now, but as soon as you hit the wall you'll wonder what the hell you're doing. Playing four tables online for two hours a day, at say 50 hands per hour, is the equivalent of playing 10 hours a day in a casino.

And another thing. Your numbers aren't linear. Nothing ever goes according to plan. Your figures say you'll make 76K a year, but I've got news for you--it very seldom works out that way. Things have a way of going bad in this business, and a nasty downturn can turn those numbers upside down.

But if you're hell bent on doing it, then do it. All I can tell you is if I had it to do over again I wouldn't even dream of playing poker. But you gotta do what you gotta do.

Re: If you were me..............
 

I've averaged about 30hr/week for the last 3 months, and still had a job as well, but I realize that burnout is an issue and I will have to FORCE myself to take time away so as to not go insane.

As far as what I'll earn, I just threw the 72K out there as an example. I realize that there can be fluctuations, and I may become a victim of one. I also could run good, too. Only time will tell.

Re: If you were me..............
 

You say you're currently playing 30 hrs/wk while teaching? How long have you gone while keeping up that schedule? That is, how likely do you think it is that you'll be able to play 35 hrs/wk with your A game and without hating the decision down the road?

Can you enter the "sub" pool, so you'd have some teaching income (and possibly benefits) during the year, without screwing things up? Even if it was just a periodic breather from the poker grind, it might be nice.

One thing I haven't seen mentioned is this: If you take the year off, and seriously work on improving as you play, there's a ROI akin to whatever you might put into a retirement fund. Do the match exactly? Who knows. But if you play 400,000 hands in this year (300/hr, 35 hr/wk, 40 wks/yr), and work on improving, and increase your winrate at 5/10 6max AND increase your skill so that when you move to 10/20 your winrate is good AND decrease the time before you can move up, that all equates to better poker earn over time.

As an example, say that at the end of the year, you're at 10/20 and making 1.5 BB/100. If you stayed teaching, after a year you're still at 5/10 and .9BB/100. 200,000 hands at each (a conservative 1 year of play WHILE teaching, after you reaturn) is 60k vs. 18k. Which means you can easily make up the lost retirement benefits and then some, as your expected earn is higher going forward.

If I were in your shoes, I'd play. I'm not, and I probably won't be anytime soon, so consider that I'm envious and that colors my decision.

Honestly, I think this is one of those things you might look back on years from now and regret not doing if you don't take the year off to play. Maybe not, but still.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will make 52K + benefits next year as a teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty good for a teacher, innit?

If you're sure you can get your job back, take the year off and enjoy yourself. But then definitely get your job back.

Re: If you were me..............
 

I think you bring up some excellent points. I could/should improve and I intend to take a stab at 10/20 when I have 4K I can "burn" on an attempt. Hopefully I will run good initially (does this happen one moves up? ever?) and then be able to stay there. I have intentionally skewed my projections conservatively. IMO beating 5/10 for 0.9 over a year isn't a stretch.

As far as how long can I go without hating my decision, I really don't know. I have enjoyed the challenge that poker has presented, and I have had some success. It has been harder to convice myself NOT to play, than to play, but I have made myself take days off.

I could go broke and become destittue and wind up dancing on the street for nickles, but I have a decent amount of $$$ put away. The other side is that I could move up and do really well. I think with a little luck and some hard work on improving 100K is not out of the question.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will make 52K + benefits next year as a teacher.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty good for a teacher, innit?

If you're sure you can get your job back, take the year off and enjoy yourself. But then definitely get your job back.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am 100% sure.

Re: If you were me..............
 

I'm not you (wife and kids) but I am in teaching (college) and make about the same as you for the job and for poker playing 3/6 and 5/10.

I would never give up the teaching job. Its really not very demanding, the benefits are great, plenty of holidays, and plenty of time for playing poker. The list goes on and several posters have mentioned other benefits.

I havent gotten into 5/10 shorthanded yet but I think I would want to have a little more stability in the game than a speculative .9BB/100 winrate(not doubting your ability or dedication here). Perhaps you could take this sabbatical next year when your poker future is a little clearer?

And during that year off you should probably be doing something to change or further your career (more education/training etc.) along with playing poker if that is what you choose to do.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
And during that year off you should probably be doing something to change or further your career (more education/training etc.) along with playing poker if that is what you choose to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have considered taking some classes, as I may decide to back to school someday. As far as taking education courses, I will never take one again. I hate them.

Re: If you were me..............
 

After reading some of your replies, I would like to change my vote from Teach and it's close to Teach and it's not even close. Deciding factor: 0.88BB/100 is just not enough. It is not a good idea to forecast your future income based on your current win rate over 60K hands. Even given your assumptions, from a strictly monetary point of view, it sounds like a wash.

The next school year will be over in 10 months and the Poker boom is still going to be here. If you work on your game you should be able you should be able to improve your forecast by 50% at the least. Since this year would basically be a wash, why not wait till next year when, with your improved mad skillz you would be able to really put away a good chunk of change. It sounds like you are burning out on the teaching job but play poker and think about the long run.

Re: If you were me..............
 

This is so not a decision to be making in the middle of July. I strongly suggest waiting until next year if you'll still have the sabbatical option.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as how long can I go without hating my decision, I really don't know. I have enjoyed the challenge that poker has presented, and I have had some success. It has been harder to convice myself NOT to play, than to play, but I have made myself take days off.


[/ QUOTE ]

This paragraph is very telling. First of all it says to me that you've already made up your mind, and secondly the fact that you say, "it is been hard to convince yourself NOT to play, than to play," tells me that you're addicted.

I wish you good luck, because you're going to need it. The fact that you say you could run good too, is very scary. But like I said, you've already made up your mind, and who knows you might make a killing.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
Deciding factor: 0.88BB/100 is just not enough.

[/ QUOTE ]

IYO, what would be enough?

Re: If you were me..............
 

52k + benefits sounds like a gold mine for a "supposedly" easy teachers job. play full time in the 2 months summer vacation you have and during your 2 week christmas vacation.

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
52k + benefits sounds like a gold mine for a "supposedly" easy teachers job. play full time in the 2 months summer vacation you have and during your 2 week christmas vacation.

[/ QUOTE ]

It is an easy job and I like it, but it can be stressful too. Beating a kid to death would be -EV IMHO.

Re: If you were me..............
 

Teach and bang some 17 yr old chicks looking to up their grades [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Otherwise max's advice. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

regards

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
Teach and play in your spare time. Keep trying to move up in limits. If you are successful in moving up you can still teach, make more than 76K from poker in your spare time and still have plenty of free time to do other things in life.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seems to me that you've got it fairly good as a teacher. With starting wages around 28k/yr here and fairly fierce job competition, I've decided to play poker instead. I agree with Max's reasoning -- I also think you'll like poker more if you don't have to play, and instead play when you want to.

Rob

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
I find it curious that you think I should consider 3/6, even though my sample sizes for 3/6 and 5/10 are about the same.

[/ QUOTE ]

I suggested it cause thats what I did, except the difference in my winrate was larger. However what is right for me may not be right for you. I play for a living and I am a fairly conservitive person. I have the bankroll to be playing 50-100 games but I have no desire to move up

I played over 750K hands combined at the 2-4 and 3-6 limits 8 and 12 tabling before I decided I better move up before my game stagnates.

I played just over 61K hands at 5-10 6 max 4 tabling with a slightly lower winrate than yours, 1.1 BB/100

I was not happy with this and I decided to move back down to the 2-4 and 3-6 limits.

Even tho I was beating that limit I I moved down for a couple of reasons.

1st and foremost was I was making more per hour 12 tabling the lower limits than I was playing 4 tables of 5-10 SH (including Rakeback)

The 2nd reason was the swings in 5-10 were driving me nuts.
Going on a 100-150 BB downsing ever 10K hands or so was really frustrating me. I can count the # of -100 BB downswings I have had on 1 hand playing 2-4 and 3-6 so I am not used to the downswings that are constant in the 6 max games.

The 3rd reson was the level of competition at the lower limits is just so soft. In the 5-10 6 max games I was always looking for different tables, chasing the fish and staying away from the TAGS.

I can pull up any 12 tables at random in the 2-4 games and not have to move tables because the players are just so soft. IF there are 3 or 4 TAGS on 1 of the tables I am sitting on it doesn't bother me becuase 2 or 3 of them play awful post-flop. A TAG at the lower limits is just not the same as a TAG at the higher limits. Yes, there are awful playing tags at the higher limts as well but they are not as plentiful as they are in the 2-4 and 3-6 games

The last reason I decided to stay put was becuae currently we have tons of pro's or semi-pro's, climbing the ladder increasing their bakrolls trying to get out of the small stakes limit games and get to the 15-30, 30-60 games.

I would rather be at the top of the pile in the Small stakes games making good money against poor competition with almost no effort, than be a decent player making good money in the 15-30 games against better competion and a lot more effort.

Will this hurt me in the long run, yes probably, but only if I ever plan on moving up the ladder.

The 2-4 and 3-6 games will probably get a little harder over time and I may experience a little drop in my winrate but I really do not think that the 2-4 and 3-6 games will ever get to the point where they are difficult to beat.


If that time ever does come I will have accumilated a massive bankroll and I will just play fewer tables and move up the limits or buy another business.

Whatever you choose good luck

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
52k + benefits sounds like a gold mine for a "supposedly" easy teachers job. play full time in the 2 months summer vacation you have and during your 2 week christmas vacation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Teaching is [censored] hard work.

Krishan

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]

The 2-4 and 3-6 games will probably get a little harder over time and I may experience a little drop in my winrate but I really do not think that the 2-4 and 3-6 games will ever get to the point where they are difficult to beat.


[/ QUOTE ]

Which brings up the general question. How does a professional player give himself a raise?

Re: If you were me..............
 

It really sounds like you have made up your mind. I think the more important point is that the EV of doing this now is far less than that of doing it 10 months from now.

You definitely shouldn't make a decision based on what someone else thinks your winrate should be. Having said that, personally, I would not make a decision like this without a winrate of 1BB/100 over 120K hands or 1.5BB/100 over 80K hands. Playing 4 tables of 5/10 6 max. I would also like to see a substantial jump when only playing 2 tables. 6 max can be a very swingy game and I am not sure that you understand that you could have started on an upswing.

I think the more important point is that the EV of doing this now is far less than that of doing it 10 months from now. (that was important enough to repeat)

Re: If you were me..............
 

I'll never need to. I'm making more than enough per hour now that even if my hourly rate dropped my 20% or so I will be more than fine.

I also live in Canada so when it is changed over to the Canadian dollar I am getting another 20% on my hourly rate

My fiance and I live wll below our means, just because someone makes a million a year doesnt mean they spend a million a year. (I'm not claiming I make a million a year, would be nice)

12 tabling the 2-4 limts at 2BB/100 + rakeback at 675 hands per hour = $75/Hour Convert to Canadian funds = $90/hour

12 tabling the 2-4 limits at 3BB/100+rakeback at 675 hands per hour= $101.00/Hour Convert to Canadian= $121.20/hour

Re: If you were me..............
 

[ QUOTE ]
Tell me what to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Keep your job. Play poker as a long term hobby. Also, don't forget that if you do your taxes correctly, according to the law, you will be making a lot less from poker than you have calculated. Keep track of your winning sessions and losing sessions for a month and see what that would look like on your tax return.

Re: If you were me..............
 

I didn't answer, because I have to know, do you like teaching? Also important, have you ever played 35 hours per week for any significant time?

B

Re: If you were me..............
 

Re: I should also mention.........
 

[ QUOTE ]
.....that I have a 1000BB bankroll and 5 months living expenses set aside.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, this question is really simple the way you've posed it. What do you want to do?

You've got money put aside and apparently a gaurantee that your job is there when you get back. If it's something you want to try, do it. If you wonder if you should because you can, who cares what you should do?

No one can make this decision for you - it isn't an EV question, no matter how people want to put it. From what I know of Bob (only what he's written here), he can get from today until a year from now just fine. And in a year from now, he can go back to work.

What's the problem? You want to try it, go for it. Is it what you'll enjoy more? I can't answer that either.

If the only debate is "which would be more fun" then it seems like an easy question. Whichever you want.

ElSapo

Re: If you were me..............
 

I picked "play and it's not close".

Not many people are in your position. You have a year off of work, and you won't have to worry about getting your job back at the end of that year.

How many jobs are going to let you take a year off to see if you want to pursue a different career?

In your position, I'd probably move to Vegas for a year.

Re: If you were me..............
 

ahhh, the days when lindsay lohan wasn't some anorexic, tan in a bottle, bleach blonde mess. Couldn't stop laughing the first time I saw that...but, that clip loses its comedic value the second time you watch it faster then a car ten feet out of a dealers lot.