Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

Gotta bet that flop. If they still check to you on the turn bet again. Check the river if possible. Otherwise call/fold depending on your reads.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

Hi Dr.,

I had wonderful, insightful things to say then Harv stole most of them. Listen, for he is wise.

I could be influenced by my newfound love affair with shorthanded poker, but I think you need to try to be stealing WAY more than 23 % of the time. At the loose 1/2 games you won't get that many opportunities, granted, but from the cutoff you should be stealing with every ace and most kings, every pocket pair, any two face cards and your higher suited connectors.

I don't know how many players are seeing the flop in the games you're playing with, but you might consider limping fewer weak speculative hands like suited Kings without at least 3 limpers and raising more of your marginal broadway holdings in late position such as AT o and KJ o. If the game is really juicy then switch this, of course, and play all sorts of suited connectors and just limp with your marginal broadway holdings if not folding them outright.

As others have said, flip your aggression on its head. River aggression of 1 to 2.5 is fine, 3 is outrageous and shows you're folding too many rivers. I bet you slowplay more than you should, as well.

Post hands. And if you still can't get the game, come play 1/2 shorthanded. You'll be amazed how quickly you learn.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

My guess is you are beat with JJ. A check on the river would've/may have saved you a bet.

Have enjoyed and learned a lot from this thread. Thanks for bringing it to us.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

Ok, these posts point out a big part of the problem.

You aren't even letting the trees obscure the forest. You are letting the bark get in the way.

November was a very good month for me, assuming I don't crash and burn in the last 36 hours. This weekend, I entered my data into statking.

I didn't win every day. In fact, in the middle of the month, I had a $992 downswing. What did I do during the downswing? I sat down at my computer, and put in my hands each day. Then what happeneed, toward the end of the month, I ran really good. So what did I do? I sat down at my computer, and put in my hands for those days too. I didn't think about the previous day, or my life to date total. I sat down, and ground out the hands that I was going to play every day.

In fact, during the part of the month that I ran very good in, I didn't win every day. And I certainly didn't win every table I opened. You have to be able to deal with losing. It comes with the game.

You said a couple posts up the thread that you had smart parents, and that you were fortunate enough to inherit some of that from them. You are making a bad assumption. Success at poker isn't just about being smart, it is also about being under emotional control. (You probably know some successful poker players who couldn't do what you do acedemically.) Do you throw big bets away, when you can't believe the joesuckout has done it to you again? 'I just have to see what he played this time.' Do you think if I win this hand, then I will be even, or up 50, or some other artificial goal, and then play the hand, regardless of what clues your opponents might be giving you that you are behind?

Here is my recommendation. There is a book by Larry Phillips, called 'Zen and the Art of Poker'. Pick it up, and read a little bit each day. Work on playing your 'A' game all the time. I coach soccer, and what I tell my players, is that I want them to work on the process, and don't worry about the product. Remember that -'PROCESS, Not PRODUCT.' If you keep making good decisions at the table, eventually, but not immediately, you will have a big stack of chips. If instead, you try and work on having a big stack of chips, you will probably make enough bad decisions along the way, that you won't.

Another book that I recommend is 'Go Rin No Sho' or 'The Book of Five Rings' by Miyamoto Musashi. It is a swordfighting text from the 17th century. You should be able to find a translation in either the business section or self improvement section of a major bookstore. It talks playing within yourself and about adapting a style that is --- no style. Instead, you always want to play the optimal style against each particular opponent. To make it simple, in Roshambo which is stronger, rock, paper, or scissors? Obviously, none of them, it depends on what your opponenent has. Playing the same way against all of your opponents isn't going to get the money. There is a time to be aggressive, a time to be passive. A time to be tight, and a time to loosen up. Even being a fricken calling station can be right occasionally.

Don't just see 20% of the flops and say I must be playing right because my statistics are right. See the right 20% of the flops, and enter the pot the right way for the current situation. I probably have similar statistics to you, but at the same time, I probably have a wider range of hands that I fold, call, and raise with. I know that this morning, at one point in time, I held the exact same two cards, in the same position on the table, on two different tables, and I laughed to myself as I raised on one table and mucked on the other. The game dynamics were very different, and in one case, I needed to raise, and in the other, the hand was unplayable. But they looked the same.

Hope this helped.
Bob T.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

Hand 5

I've been attempting to steal more blinds but it hasn't been working out too well. Say I hold a pretty decent hand, like A8o, and its folded to me in the button.

I raise, and get called by BB. Flop is 2 6 7.

I bet, even though I don't have anything, but to see if he has anything.

He calls, Turn is a 10.

I still don't have anything and most of the time, the BB doesn't either. So what is the line? If I bet, he calls..then what if river is a blank? I check, since I have nothing, and he beats..I have to fold. If I do beat the river with A high, I find he calls anyways and turns over 38o and turns over his pair of threes.

Another example.

Hand 6


Two limpers to me. I raise with QQ. They both call.

Flop comes 8 K 3.

Check, I bet, they both call.

Turn is 6.

Check, I bet, Fold, 1 Call.

River is a blank.

Check to me, I bet, he calls and turns over K10o.

Hand 7

Ks10c on CO.

Everyone folds to me, I raise, BB reraises.

Flop comes Ac Jc 6s

BB checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn is 4c.

He bets, I call.

River is blank.

He bets, I??

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your folded to river bet is insanely high. Before folding so-so hands like top pair on the river you have to look at the size of the pot.

You are surely folding many winners and giving up lots of money in the process.

[/ QUOTE ]

What is the correct range for "folded to a river bet"?

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

I dunno, I am folding hand 4 preflop, but I play more aggressive games...

Once you see the flop and have it checked to you, you've gotta bet. The rest of the hand seems player and card-specific, but I think you see later in the hand why I want to fold K8s in MP2. You're out of position with no idea where you stand. If you check the river you could easily be faced with a bet by a worse hand, or miss value by having 77 check through. If you were the one that had position, you could be the turn and check the river through, which would be my preference... I do this a lot when hands like 99 and TT catch 2+ overs and passive players are hanging around in the hand. Position saves you money when you're behind, and gets you extra $$ those times you do spike a set or two pair.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

As far as hand 4 goes:

I did have position on the other 4 callers. I should have added that the person checked on the River, I bet, then he called and turn over a J.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
I've been attempting to steal more blinds but it hasn't been working out too well. Say I hold a pretty decent hand, like A8o, and its folded to me in the button.

I raise, and get called by BB. Flop is 2 6 7.

I bet, even though I don't have anything, but to see if he has anything.

He calls, Turn is a 10.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is where you need to adjust for loose passive players who won't fold 4th pair no kicker, and will call your steal raise with any two. Once you've value bet the flop (and it is usually a value bet when you're coming in with A8 and he has any two), you use your position on the turn. If you've made a pair or very strong draw, bet it again (if folding equity + draw equity > 50%). Here's the key: if you have no pair and no draw, CHECK BEHIND on the turn. You will often draw a better hand on the river, and when you don't it will be easy to judge where you stand versus straightforward opponents. They're going to bet their pairs and check their trash. Even when they check the river, I'll still often check behind with ace high. You can't bet loose passives out of a hand. Trying to do so will cost $$$.

[ QUOTE ]
Two limpers to me. I raise with QQ. They both call.

Flop comes 8 K 3.

Check, I bet, they both call.

Turn is 6.

Check, I bet, Fold, 1 Call.

River is a blank.

Check to me, I bet, he calls and turns over K10o.


[/ QUOTE ]

Good turn bet, but you need to check the river through. Yes, it is very important to value bet rivers, but again, against loose passive guys, you don't often have a value bet here without at least top pair.

[ QUOTE ]

3rd Example:

Ks10c on CO.

Everyone folds to me, I raise, BB reraises.

Flop comes Ac Jc 6s

BB checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn is 4c.

He bets, I call.

River is blank.

He bets, I??

[/ QUOTE ]

You fold king high because it wins 0% of the time. I like your flop bet (getting 6:1 on an unlikely fold by him, plus the gutshot means the bet was probably ok), but I hate your turn call. Much of this depends on who BB is, and how he'd play hands like 55, A9s, and QT of course. Against any reasonable player, I am folding the turn. What can he have that you beat? Hell, if he's reasonable enough, I am checking the flop through and hoping to pair my king or catch the gutter on the turn. IMO you dumped at least 1BB on this hand, and if you called the river two.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

Hand 5, you have position. When he checks to you a second time on the turn, you have to consider your opponent. What are his tendencies? If you don't know this opponent right now, what would you like to know most about him? What are the tendencies of a "default" opponent in this spot (hint: they don't fold enough).

Hand 6, put him on a range of hands. Could he be drawing to something? Unlikely on this board. Could he be trying to call you down with second or middle pair? Unlikely, as you (i.e. preflop raisers) often have AK and you hit your K. This is common fishy thinking. Could he have a K? Possible, and with every bet he calls, it becomes more likely. Does your opponent like to fold or does he like to call? What does the default 1/2 player like to do in this spot?

Hand 7, I check behind on this flop a lot unless I know this guy is weak enough to fold the flop for one bet. I call on the turn and I fold on the river when all I have is K high.


Game selection. Are you playing where the best games are or where the best bonuses are?

Do you take notes on opponents? Maybe you never see 50% of those notes again, but the process of distilling how they play is invaluable (as are the other 50% of the notes).

Are you using a HUD to get some opponent info on the table?

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your folded to river bet is insanely high.

[/ QUOTE ]What is the correct range for "folded to a river bet"?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am also interested in getting an idea what the expected good range for 'Folded to River Bet' is expected to be. I think I may be 'Folding To River Bet' too much also. For Full Ring I an at 46%, for 1/2 Shorthand I am at 51%. I would guess that a lower range would be expected at Shorthand also.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

45% is ABOUT the norm from all the stats I have ever see.

Winning 50% at SD is WAY WAY low (somebody mention that).

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

You are right it is not the only thing we should look at, but I think it can be an explanation of running bad/good.
With your stats I would guess the majority of your hands are at 2-4 or below.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do me one favor go back and separate a block of 5k hands where you won less than 53% of your showdowns and still was beating the the game, then we will talk more.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW I have 68k hands winning 2 BB/100 and a W$@SD less than 50. You're assigning much too much value to this stat. Different styles are going to bring about different numbers.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

That has to be at 1-2 or 2-4. I would be really surprised if it was at a higher game. Thanks for input.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
That has to be at 1-2 or 2-4. I would be really surprised if it was at a higher game. Thanks for input.

[/ QUOTE ]

20k of it is 3/6 and 5/10. My win without showdown is very, very high.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

I would think your showdown winning % is higher for the 20k hands?

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

I was in a similar situation as you, during the summer. Back in June, I moved up from .5/$1 to $1/$2. From then until October, I went nowhere. First half of every month, I'd make a profit, last half I'd lose it. I was getting frustrated. Then I started taking The Wookie Challenge.

I *highly* recommend this to you. Over the last two months, I feel my game has improved, and my bankroll is big enough that I'm moving to $2/$4 in Dec.

I think the key here isn't posting your own hands, but commenting on other's hands so your thought process can be reviewed by the rest of us here.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

hand 1:
flop raise was nice put - gave you a free showdown. HU I would bet the turn after I was checked to. Maybye even here. Not too sure, though.

hand 2:
youre lucky to be in with a passive bunch here. The Flop-bet is good in my book (guess you cant count on a checkraise here, with these opponents). And further - you cant push these guys out, so I think checking is fine when you don't hit. Please tell me, someone had at least had a T...

hand 3:
only way to do it !. By the (any) book. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

I just want to say that Bob T's advice is what you need to be listening to here. You can post as many hands as you want but if you're riding the roller-coaster ride of, "my self-worth as a poker player is directly linked to my results", then it's going to be an extremely bumpy one. And this will continue to be the case even when you're techincally a better player than you are now.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

I think the most glaring of issues that i can find is that you fold your BB to steals FAR too often.

The fact that you fold 75% of your big blinds to steals means that you're only marginally more inclined to defend from a steal than you are to voluntarily put in the pot otherwise (given that your vpip is 18%).

You should probably post your positional stats and see how much you're winning/losing out of the blinds.

PFR% is a bit low, but i dont think that's an issue.
VPIP is a bit low, but it's certainly not a leak - you're probably just missing out on a few marginally profitable situations.

W$SD and WSD doesnt seem unusual either, but that might just be because my stats are less than optimal too.


River AF seems absurdly high relative to the rest of it.

I think that generally, AF should go down as you approach showdown. Yours goes up.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

After thinking more, I've been trying to clear bonuses...it has been my main priority.

However, in doing this, I've also been forced to play in some pretty crappy games. I'm pretty sure most of the hands I play are grinded out against other bonus whores at 1/2. It seems to be where they congregate. I'm tired of playing games with 17% VPIP

I realize that I have some leaks in my game. Mainly stealing/defending blinds, and continuing to bet on when my overcards miss the flop (leading to a high fold % on river along with reveresed aggression pattern).

After examining some of the sites I play at, 2/4 games seem much better. I have more than enough gambling bankroll (I have enough for 5/10 or more), and I come from a strict casino background where it isnt uncommon for me to lose $1000 in an hour or two or at one flip of the card, so I don't think handling the swings will be a problem.

To me, losing $200 over the course of 6 hours at poker is MUCH MUCH more frustrating than losing $500 in an hour at the casino side (as long as the casino bet is +EV), because at least I can go watch TV or something.

Anyways, here is two hands..

Hand 8

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(9 handed)</font> PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

Preflop: Hero is Hero with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: (5 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB calls.

Turn: (3.5 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 6.5 BB

Is this how you would have played it??

Hand 9

PokerRoom 2/4 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font> PokerRoom Converter at BonusHunting.net

Preflop: Hero is Hero with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls, Button folds.

River: (5 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 13 BB

A very annoying hand for me. What do you guys think?

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

I guess you are going to ignore our advice and just keep posting hands. Oh well...

Hand 8.
without a read on SB:
Check the turn, see the river for free. check/call depending on what it brings.

Hand 9:
Again, with no reads:
Flop: You can't expect aggression here, so I'd lead out.
Turn: fine
River: why are you 3-betting someone that woke up on the flush card? Check/call or bet/call here.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop: Hero is Hero with 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Button calls, Hero calls, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(6 players)</font>
Hero checks

[/ QUOTE ]

Remember what I said earlier about slowplaying too often? In a pot this size, with this many opponents, and with nobody showing aggression preflop, you need to lead out here 150% of the time. As in, even if you're just watching the table, you should be looking for a "bet" button. Incidentally, against a smaller field (say 1 limper + the BB), you should lead out on this flop if you're holding 55, too. But seriously, against a large field, it is never correct to slowplay anything less than flopped quads, and even then you should probably go ahead and bet it.

Bob T had a really, really good post in this thread a little while back, and made a couple of excellent book suggestions for the mental/discipline side of this game. His advice on varying your own playing style to counter that of your opponents is very solid, although this is not something you should be focusing on yet--so long as you're primarily grinding out bonus hands on 1/2 (and now, 2/4), work first &amp; foremost on the basics and on plugging your leaks like the one above, and then move on to more advanced matters like changing up your play.

There are two basic lines you can take on Hand 8, btw: either check through the turn and call a bet on the river, or play it exactly like you did. Unless your opponent is very aggressive/tricky (you'd want to check through the turn then) or a very passive calling station (bet/fold the turn then), neither line is really better IMO.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

One thing that jumps out at me immediately is your high percentage of mucking in the blinds to a steal/raise from button/CO.

The lack of aggression in these situations, coupled with your low win rate, leads me to believe you may not be aggressive enough with less than the best hands.

You can't count on pulling a 2BB+ pr 100 hands with nothing but the best hands.

I also believe your attempt to steal the blinds is too low. I believe it should be closer to 33%. This is the % of times everyone folds to you, when you are in the CO or Button.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
However, in doing this, I've also been forced to play in some pretty crappy games. I'm pretty sure most of the hands I play are grinded out against other bonus whores at 1/2. It seems to be where they congregate. I'm tired of playing games with 17% VPIP


[/ QUOTE ]

Under session notes in PT, what is the cumulative Avg Pot size and cumulative ASF(average see flop) for tables you play at.

I play mostly at Party, most of my hands at 1/2 and
Avg Pot = $15.5
ASF = 34

Avg pot is a little high b/c maybe 1/6 of my hands are at 2/4.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

Seems like ur very similar to me and I too have been less than 1BB/100 at $2/$4 for about 50K hands. That's why I switched back to NL, and have been enjoying myself there. One day I may try limit again, but it wuz rather frustrating for the time I did play it.

Yeah I think one of my larger leaks may have been on the river, I probably folded too much.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

In the 10k hands I have played in the past two weeks:

Avg Pot: 10.33
ASF: 27.63

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

Hey these have been mentioned before but I think

1) You do not c/r enough. I am at 1% over 80K hands, 65K of which at 1/2. c/r for protection or value are both important

2) Fold to River be seems high. I am at 37%

I would be very interested to see your PT stats for your table selection. Under "session notes" look at ASF and Avg. Pot. While your winrate is not great, I think that it's going to be hard to beat tight games for a huge winrate because the rake is so crippling.

Good luck!

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats inside
 

[ QUOTE ]
Do me one favor go back and separate a block of 5k hands where you won less than 53% of your showdowns and still was beating the the game, then we will talk more.
Op is beating the game when he wins 56% of showdowns but is loosing at 51%. My stats says that 53% breakeven 55% I'm a 2bb/100 hands. Granted I may have leaks elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be paying to see the Turn too often with too little money in the pot.

If I have a 500+ hand session where I only win 51/52% of my showdowns, I still win 35% of all hand I get involved with and over 10% of all hands I've been dealt. That is, when the cards are running on average.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
So could I possibly just be going through the worst breakeven streak to start someone's poker career? I seem to do ok with the few hands I posted (I'll post more), and besides the fact that I fold too much on the river, all my stats seem to be in line with everyone else.

The only thing I've been thinking is that I might hold on to my cards too long..meaning, I might call a turn bet knowing that I'm beat unless I get a miracle card on the river, causing my fold % on the river to be high?

Any other thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is costing you a lot of money. A lot of money. A lot of money. That's the key to my being able to squeak out a win over a 500 hand session when I only win 49-51% of showdowns; I win 33% of all hands I play and I don't pay for the Turn card without a damn good reason.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That has to be at 1-2 or 2-4. I would be really surprised if it was at a higher game. Thanks for input.

[/ QUOTE ]

20k of it is 3/6 and 5/10. My win without showdown is very, very high.

[/ QUOTE ]

As he said, different styles will bring about different results. His style here is mostly likely very aggressive on early streets.

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

[ QUOTE ]
....
Since I'm playing at Prima and Multi/Pokernow, its tough to post hands.
...


[/ QUOTE ]
try my handconverter for prima, available at hconverter.hollosite.com

Re: Should I quit? 35k hands at 1/2 and still breaking even..Stats in
 

Hand 5

In this hand I bet the flop, bet the turn and check the river (fold if C/R)

Another example.

Hand 6


Check the river unless he's a total calling station

Hand 7

Ks10c on CO.

Fold the river, my guess is he has KK or QQ. Either way, it's highly unlikely you have him beat with K-high.