Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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I see no reason to believe that players from 3rd world countries would be especially strong at poker.

My GF is from South America. In her country of Peru I just don't think it would be very realistic because there is not too much disposable money there. This shouldn't be a surprise.
My GF is a nurse in the U.S. and makes more money than her Dad who is a doctor in Peru.

Her family does have internet though (they IM each other all the time) as do many down there...so they could play if they wanted to I guess.
They also have a couple of casinos in Lima...and I know that a couple of her aunts or cousins or something like to go to one of them occasionally to play 3-card poker or caribbean stud or one of those types of games.

So perhaps there is some disposable income down there where it could actually happen.

I gave some of the free party and stars stuff (sihrts, jackets, hats) to my GF's Mom who passed it around to other family members. So I guess I'm doing my part to promote online-poker in South America!!

Obviously there are some people in some of the wealthier nations who have disposable income. I think Brazil and Argentina qualify. I have met players from both of those countries online before.


But I still don't see why bringing in players from other countries automatically means they won't suck as much as most everyone else does.

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Think about it. Her father is a doctor! and makes less than a nurse here. Most doctors have the inteligence and dedication to beat online poker if they wanted to at say the 5/10 level. Winning poker players can make much more than a nurse in the USA. The dad is the one that I'm saying will play seriously. As you mentioned the uneducated fish won't have much money to contribute to the online community. The USA fish is extremely wealthy when looking at the world wide picture.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Anyone into online MMORPGs has probably heard of Lineage 2 and overseas Adena Farming sweatshops. Companies set up labs with dozens of computers and pay people $.50 per hour to play the game and then sell the currency for a large profit. The economy of many foreign countries is so bad that $.50 per hour is actually above average.

There is really nothing (except maybe gambling laws) preventing them from setting up poker sweatshops.

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Yep it is that easy to become a winning player. Set up a sweatshop, put asses in the seats and I am sure this will work out great.

What people dont seem to realize is that is that there is a set of intangibles that enable a person to become a winning player. You will never know if a person has these before they start playing. Thus 92% of the people in the sweatshop are gonna be losing players.

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You act like being a winning poker player is like joining the army. You sign your name, take a physical, and get rolling. It does not work like that. Why do you think that 92% of the people lose?

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This point has been made by a number of posters, and I think it's missing the OPs point completely. Let's assume that 8% of all players today are good enough to beat the games for at least a small amount. This doesn't mean that 92% of todays players are inherently incapable of becoming good poker players, or that if 100 dedicated and smart nigerians decide to try to make a living at poker, 92 of them will fail. Most of the playes today play recreationally, and don't bother much about improving their game, something that the 100 nigerians in my example would probably do.

That said, I don't agree with the OP that this is likely to happen, especially not anytime soon. The reasons for this (lacking funds, education, infrastructure, etc.) has already been elaborated by other posters.

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I agree with the first paragraph.

There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

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Exactly! However, you present my arguement more clearly. Hopefully, now people will understand my arguement and stop talking about the fish and start focusing on the underpaid sharks coming in.

Thanks for the clarification!

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I think you are right (those not agreeing fail to look at thing in a large perspective IMO), but it is a very slow development. Remember that the 2nd & 3rd world-players have a negative edge as they are currently less experienced in poker and also remember that in many 2nd & 3rd countries those who have starting capital and computer and internet access already belong to a "class" where average salaries are close to the US.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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I think you are right (those not agreeing fail to look at thing in a large perspective IMO), but it is a very slow development. Remember that the 2nd & 3rd world-players have a negative edge as they are currently less experienced in poker and also remember that in many 2nd & 3rd countries those who have starting capital and computer and internet access already belong to a "class" where average salaries are close to the US.

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I agree they are behind on the skillset, but seriously how long do you think it takes an educated person to beat a Party 1/2 table? One or two months tops (i was a winning player the day i started online.. simply because i started at low limits).

It's not just the factory workers who make fractions of what we do... same goes for Doctors, Economist, Actuaries, Engineers..etc.

You don't need much capital, but they would have less and therefore start at lower stakes, which coincidentally will lead to a larger percent of them having success right off the bat.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Nice thought, but no.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

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Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas.

Some guy in a developing country that sees the WSOP and thinks he can make money playing online poker is just as likely to become a fish as someone guy living in the US.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Saying that poker will run out of fish is like saying the world is going to run out of people. There is a fishy life cycle. It usually goes something like: 1.) Deposit, win big, 2.) Play some more, lose it all 3.) Complain about bad beats, cashout curse, sunspots, etc 4.) Re-deposit and suck again. This cycle might repeat indefinitely or just once or twice. It depends on the person. However, when one person quits depositing, another will come along and take his place.

Also, I've never met a losing player. They are all winners when you talk to them. People that think they are better than they are can be very profitable. This probably makes up roughly 97% of the poker population. The good thing about these people is that since they have this false sense of superiority, they will not work on their game to turn themselves into a decent player. They will eventually lose all their money and re-deposit or die out and become re-incarnated as a different donkey.

Remember: there's a sucker born every minute. Eventually the sucker will deposit some money on Party Poker.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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There are plenty of educated underpaid (relative to usa standards) people in developing countries. These same individuals tend to have PC's and internet conections.

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Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas.

Some guy in a developing country that sees the WSOP and thinks he can make money playing online poker is just as likely to become a fish as someone guy living in the US.

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Do you really think that a college educated person is as likely to suck as the average joe? Hell no. Maybe only 8% are winning players. I would say that if you looke at people with Masters or a Math/Science degree probably 25 to 50% are winning players, and if you look at all others (excluding Advanced degrees) the % that win is probably only like 5 or 6%.)

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

What people aren't seeming to grasp is that sharks don't drown.

If there are 4,823 sharks on party this year, how many will there be next year?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

[ QUOTE ]
Great post!! Again a few folks are not following the argument, so to boil it down...

Hypothesis: As online poker becomes more and more available to the third world, the average earn of an online poker player will decrease.

Currently, the average poker player comes from an industrialized nation where the avg wage is much higher than that of the third world.

For a worker in an industrialized nation to take up online poker as a career, his earn should normally be higher than that which he can make outside of poker. The same will hold true for a third world worker.

OP is not saying that third world players will be better... they will simply be satisfied with a far smaller earn, than a worker from the avg industrialized nation.

ie; Adding thousands of happy 0.2 bb/100 winners into online poker is not a good thing for those of us that make far more than that.

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Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market? The only site i ever had boot me for being American was Expekt. It seems like it might be dificult although Neteller could tell that i logged on outside of the USA once and froze my account for supscisious behaving, so i guess they can track ips. i hope that when the US government regulates the industry, that they will require some sort of segmentation.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas

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Again this is not the argument.

There is a very good reason that once players DO enter from the third world, those who are winning players will be willing to play at a far less earn than current players.

The avg worker in US, EU, etc makes over $10/hour (number pulled out of air). The avg. worker in the third world makes less than $1/hr. This differential will drive US, EU players who make less than $10 per hour playing poker, OUT, and third world players who can make more than $1 per hour IN. Although the US player who could make $1-$9 per hour would be +EV, he simply has better EV opportunities outside of poker, this is not the case for the third world player. There is simply an untapped, underpaid, group of billions of people, many of whom will have the intellect to beat poker for far more than they could earn in regular jobs in their homeland. They will be willing to play for far less than I am.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Saying that poker will run out of fish is like saying the world is going to run out of people.

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Reading comprehension is not your strong point. At not time did OP make a statement such as this.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market?

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Yes. But they won't. It is not in their interests.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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The few Russians and Chinese that have some wealth already have made some levels more rock gardenish.

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Boy, it really sucks that your opponents no longer have exploitable tendencies. How will you ever make money?

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NH sir.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I think that online games (Party anyway) are getting tougher and may continue to get tougher, but I think they will reach an equilibrium. Sure, some fish will either give up or learn to play well enough that they are no longer fish, but I think an equilibrium will be reached. There are plenty of fish who gamble for entertainment, and will continue to do so. The casinos haven't run out of slot and table game players, and I don't think poker (online or B&M) will run out of fish any time soon. Also, as the games get tougher, some of the borderline winners will becom losers. If their primary motivation for playing is to make money, and they find it is no longer possible, some of them will quit. I'm more concerned about bots. I think making a bot that can play winning poker is very difficult, but I don't think it's impossible. If I had a year to spare, I think I could do it myself. Unless poker sites' bot detection is good enough to keep most of the bots out, I think they could eventually dry up the games.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Reading comprehension is not your strong point. At not time did OP make a statement such as this.

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Apparently grammar is not yours?

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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Do you think the online sites would/could segregate the market?

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Yes. But they won't. It is not in their interests.

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I think it is. I would argue that its in their interest to kick the best players to the curb. They take more money off the tables than they contribute in rake. Thing about it this way. Given a finite number of players and finite bankrolls, would the site be better off if all players had the same skill, or if it was highly polarized with the better players taking the worse players money? People of equal skill swap the money, letting it get raked and reraked, good players take their winnings (raked once) and deposit it in the bank.

Not a perfect comparison but one could see how the same arguement could be made for segmenting the market. Allowing an unproportional number of good players from developing countries would lead to more money being pulled off the table and less total rake being generated.

This thought process requires a long term view on profitablity/rake, not short term where obviously the more players the better.

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Yes, and as these people get into online poker some % become fish and some % become sharks. There is no good reason this % should differ overseas

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Again this is not the argument.

There is a very good reason that once players DO enter from the third world, those who are winning players will be willing to play at a far less earn than current players.

The avg worker in US, EU, etc makes over $10/hour (number pulled out of air). The avg. worker in the third world makes less than $1/hr. This differential will drive US, EU players who make less than $10 per hour playing poker, OUT, and third world players who can make more than $1 per hour IN. Although the US player who could make $1-$9 per hour would be +EV, he simply has better EV opportunities outside of poker, this is not the case for the third world player. There is simply an untapped, underpaid, group of billions of people, many of whom will have the intellect to beat poker for far more than they could earn in regular jobs in their homeland. They will be willing to play for far less than I am.

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Yup, seems so obvious yet people refuse to admit their cash cow is limited.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

lol you are kidding - an Chinese or Indian maths graduate ain't going to stick at nano limits - he's going to want to play dumb drunk americans at the $200 tables at midnight (US time) Saturday night...same as the rest of us [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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jeez... and I was worried Ljubljana was going to take it all over.

The Chinese and Russians too; where's McCarthy?

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Don't worry, Bush has a little more time to get another war on with these countries. Write a letter to your local senator and we will stop these "low wage" poker players from invading our God given right!!!11! After all, Gore invented the internet, it's ours!

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

ooooh! a typo! such an egregious error.

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do you even play poker?

from the content of this post, i'd guess no...

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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ooooh! a typo! such an egregious error.

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Maybe you'll proofread what you write if you're planning on criticizing someone's language skills.

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why are people assuming the ratio of shark/fish brought in by 2nd and 3rd world countries will be the same as it is here. If(most likely when) people in mexico discover online poker; people who recognize it as a difficult place to make money WILL NOT take up the game. People who have dreams of making it big at the tables WILL NOT take up the game(when you are poor you are very practical and realistic, trust me). For the same reason people who want to have fun and do some gambling will not take up the game either. The people who will take up the game will be people who recognize their own intelligence and mental acumen and furthermore recognize they will be +ev at the tables. In america 9 out of 10 players will be losers. When people in mexico start playing this will not be the case. There will be many more sharks then fish coming into the game. And the fish are going to quit playing very quickly.

Someone mentioned sshe is only written in english. A very large number of educated people in other countries speak english. This is just another reason the ratio of sharks to fish will be greater.

It seems like people are picturing a family with walking sticks walking to the river to get water supply and living off chickens in their backyards is what 2nd and 3rd world countries are.

In Mexico, in Belize, in Brazil, in India, in China, there are very intelligent people that get paid small wages. If they become aware of the wages people are making playing poker they are definately going to look into the game. These guys are not going to take up nano limits for profit. Maybe just to get aquainted with the game. They will play lowstakes and up. As the tables become tighter they will continue to play where many american "play to live" players will not.

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do you even play poker?

from the content of this post, i'd guess no...

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Why would you say that?

I do play, not as my sole source of income, but I do manage to earn about 2k a month playing the weekends and after work, mostly at lower limits 2/4 to 5/10.

It was the differential between what I earn playing and what several south american friends earn that got me interested in ths subject.

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ooooh! a typo! such an egregious error.

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Maybe you'll proofread what you write if you're planning on criticizing someone's language skills.

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Why? The guy he critiqued either didn't read my post or lacked the ability to comprehend what he was reading.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

I don't have an overwhelming desire to criticize anyone's language skills (unlike others).

The problem is, his post is similar to others, which basically are assuming that OP said we are going to run out of fish. It was already pointed out that that was not what OP was talking about. It's simply dissapointing to have the same old distractions in a good thread.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

So if I undertsand your logic, you're basically saying you only want to play against people in your own wealth bracket, and you don't think poor people should be allowed to play with rich people?

Or is it OK with you if poor Americans play against you, just not poor foreigners?

Do you think this stance is morally defensible, or do you just hope that regulations will be structured to maintain a pool of players that you think you can make money off of (for pragmatic rather than moral reasons)?

I hope this doesn't sound like an attack, I'm just curious about where you're coming from with this. I, for one, enjoy the fact that I can play with people from around the world; its one of the things I love about the internet. But I'm not playing poker professionally.

Also, I don't think its accurate to think that poker players in poor countries will stick to lower limits. I think that, like many people who play now, they will try to play at the levels that are most profitable for them. So, when someone from a poor country gets good enough to dominate at one limit level, I think they will move up. If someone understands poker well enough to win big consistantly at one level, I think they'll understand that its profitable to move up in limits at some point.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Yeah, I see your point.

Cause when your home table champs found Vegas and the WSOP, and were satisfied with much less in winnings than the top pros, the top pros really got hurt bad.

Then when college students, who were satisfied with much less in winnings than online pros with actual responsibilities, found online poker, the online pros got hurt bad.

Oh, wait... never mind...

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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So if I undertsand your logic, you're basically saying you only want to play against people in your own wealth bracket, and you don't think poor people should be allowed to play with rich people?


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I really can't understand where you got this from. It's not even remotely like anything the OP has written. Are you just making things up or did I miss something?

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Someone mentioned sshe is only written in english. A very large number of educated people in other countries speak english. This is just another reason the ratio of sharks to fish will be greater.

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When I said this in my original reply this thread, it was in regards to the general population of a non-English speaking country. These people that you talk about are only a small percentage of the population and the exception.

And even if the country has English as it's common language, there's other barriers to entry. India, while making great strides, is generally a poor country. Most people have difficulty purchasing a basic computer, but there are plenty of very educated people there with the analytical background.

You should think of all of the barriers to successful entry as a linear equation where each factor will have weights with respect to the general population of a nation.

I still believe that the only way this would be a serious concern is when the ratio of sharks to fish entering the pond is off balance. But poker is very Darwinian and equalibrium will be reached regardless of what happens. I would be more concerned when an "unnatural species" is introduced into the environment like a bot; this is something that could destroy online poker.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

Here are the problems with the OP's argument as I see it.

1. Most of these countries have a poor economy because they have a small middle class. There are wealthy and poor people with not much in between. Introducing a game to these countries will also bring wealthy players who will splash around at the higher limits.

2. Winning 15/30 players do not grow on trees. Few adults that do not currently know the rules of poker could be winning players at 15/30. The lower limits you could teach someone a formulaic approach to win, so any affect would likely only be felt there.

3. Most "sweatshops" do not require much training for the work involved. It will likely take months of training before any employee is profitable. The employees will be paid a low wage to train, but it still takes time and money, plus you have to have someone educate them. I think setting these sweatshops up is easier said than done.

Re: Why Current Online Win Rates Won\'t Persist
 

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When I said this in my original reply this thread, it was in regards to the general population of a non-English speaking country. These people that you talk about are only a small percentage of the population and the exception.



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This is not true. How many people in japan and germany and france speak english? It is by no means a small percentage of the population. In south america and in mexico the percentage is much smaller, but among educated people it is still substantial. Either way, if watching poker were to become popular in south america and mexico, someone is going to write or translate poker books into spanish anyways.

I still think you are thinking of kids in sandals and flies on their face when you think about 3rd world countries. I am not sure about india, but in mexico and south america, plenty of people have computers and internet. Most of them are educated and a large number of them speak english. Ricky martin, shakira, salma hayek, antonio banderas, are examples of upperclass educated people from mexico that spoke english long before they came here. This is the case with most college educated people from 2nd and 3rd world countries. Basically poker is not going to appeal to lower class citizens in these places, it will to upperclass citizens. Most of them will be educated, most of them will have access to the internet. If poker becomes trendy in these places, they will be the ones joining the game. I don't think this is going to dry up the fish pool, but it is going to dilute it enough that winrates will drop. And like the OP said, they will settle for lesser win rates then we do.

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Ricky martin, shakira, salma hayek, antonio banderas, are examples of upperclass educated people from mexico

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This is of course completely beside your point, but I think Antonio Banderas is from Spain, and Shakira from Columbia.

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you are right, I confuse thalia and shakira. Thalia also speaks english though. And i always thought Antonio spoke funny spanish, so that makes sense.

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don't forget about big tournament wins, people who get lucky, win $1 million in a tourny, often will give a lot of it back (yes I know taxes etc. take away) but they'll give it back and it'll just circulate.

Also, a lot of "sharks" are leaving too. I myself want to get out as soon as possible and just deal with the real estate I'm buying off my poker winnings. So in about 5 years my playing will drop from 25 hours a week 4-8 tabling to 5-10 hours a week 2 tabling (my favorite amount)

Also I myself play drunk 3/6 limit and I know I lose in that game, just entertainment to me to raise 7,2o UTG and crack AA, so there will be those players.

AND when online gets fill with other country pros, online may or may not get hurt, but if it gets hurt bad we'll just move to live play.

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Don't forget BR and swings, getting a good BR together for $.5/1 or $1/2 might be a stretch, plus there'd more incentive to withdraw if that BR got to a decent size, and the natural poker swings may discourage them from playing much quicker than a U.S. microlimit player.

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Well, I make $150 a hour, I know many U.S. workers that are making $30 a hour as an engineer. If you're an engineer I would generally say you have what it takes to beat online poker. So why wouldn't a U.S. engineer quit his job and play poker for a living if he can make 3 times that fairly easily?

Theres LOTS of reasons, religion, doesn't enjoy it, etc. etc. the same will happen in 3rd world countries.