Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
If the above were true we should never bluff all-in because the times we are called it does us no good and the times we aren't called it does us no good.

[/ QUOTE ]

not to offend shania, but i think you are taking this too far. There are clearly other reasons to bluff all in (you know, little things like, WINNING THE POT )

Re: Results
 

clearly. here's my point. whether we end up showing a bluff is somewhat incidental to shania. In any given situation there is an optimal bluffing frequency (even if it is extremely small). Thats what shania is about. If your opponent thinks you are unlikely to bluff that bluffing frequency should be higher, if he thinks you are likely to bluff it should be lower, blahblahblah. What you have the times you are called in that situation is important only in so far as what your opponents will think of your range, which is how they perceive your shania, not what it actually is. This is kinda complicated and game theoretic, and i dont think im being clear about what i mean. I should probably make this stuff its own post.

Re: Results
 

Yuck. Yuck yuck yuck.

OK, you call PF, fine. So you have one pair and you bet the red flop into 3 people as basically a bluff. I don't think you have much if any chance of picking it up outright, and the button folding doesn't do much for you because, position or no position, that whole line of thinking...you're already planning the second barrel of the bluff after you start with the first. You see where the problem with this is? It smacks of that really gross Barron VangorThoth hand in the magazine last month.

So you bet and get a call (unsurprising, someone has a diamond or a Q or *something*) and you get to the turn. I think your AdKx read might be correct but he could be slowplaying, could have AdQx (or QQ?), and you also picked up a gutshot. This is a gutsy bet but I don't hate it *if* you are so sure of the AdKx read that it's a value bet. Otherwise, you're firing half your stack on the second barrel and you just know there's gonna be a third.

Yay, river blank. Yay, he checks. Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO. I don't hate this bet as much as the flop bet but it's pretty close.

I dunno man, I think you screwed this up on at least two streets.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

w/o at othe replies---

he has a good draw that he's been trying to get to- A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] -x or maybe A3 or A5 or 24 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I don't think that even a bad player would slow play an overpair for this long, however, it's possible that he may have QQ or AQ, although I would've expected a check-raise on the flop. But then he's done things that you don't expect earlier.

You caught something short of the nuts that turned into a near-nut hand such as 53 or Q3 or A3 or 55 or 33. Or you have air and since he's shown so much weakness, and you think he's missed his draw, you're pushing, figuring he'll fold. He'll only call with a full house or TPTK or an overpair.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

What really puzzles me about this hand is why, of all people, is the PFR check/calling? If he has the Ad, would he not lead this flop? If he paired the queen, would he not lead this flop? I'm having trouble putting villain on a hand other than maybe JdJ. If you've got a strong read he'll fold a marginal hand like two red jacks a large chunk of the time if you put the rest of your chips in, you've clearly got to do it.

Having said that, it takes balls to fire 3 shots.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you have much if any chance of picking it up outright, and the button folding doesn't do much for you because, position or no position, that whole line of thinking...you're already planning the second barrel of the bluff after you start with the first.

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously I don't make this flop bet often. Thing is on this particular hand I see two players who I have position on who it really looks to me like they have given up on their hand, and if they havent are likely to cr anyway and end the hand. I really thought the bet had a chance of winning close to the requisite 1/3 times, which is fine since i only bet 1/2 pot. Also, while I'm not planning on betting the turn when I make the flop bet, its certainly a possibility, but really I never expected to have the chance. If the guy behind me calls, I'm done, if the guy who likes to cr the turn calls, I'm done, and if anybody crs the flop, I'm done. The one outcome which might lead me to bet the turn happens...so I followed through (which I won't always do here).


[ QUOTE ]
It smacks of that really gross Barron VangorThoth hand in the magazine last month.


[/ QUOTE ]

Well thats just mean and uncalled for.

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Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO.

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Where does that come from? What leads you to believe he will call with these hands? This is a pretty important point because my bet is based on folding out 99/10/JJ with the draw. I really think he is folding these hands here (as he should).

Re: Results
 

One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

[/ QUOTE ]

there is a big difference in a good player who is somewhat familiar with your game putting you one a big hand w/ that line and an unknown calling because 'i've got JJ'.

Re: Results
 

Villain definitly should fold red J's on the river, but he really should have folded them on the turn. Or bet the turn, or check-raised all in on the turn, or anything but check call.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
there is a big difference in a good player who is somewhat familiar with your game putting you one a big hand w/ that line and an unknown calling because 'i've got JJ'.

[/ QUOTE ]

absolutely true, although I doubt that I'd ever be in this spot against a good player. I'm not sure that answers the question I asked though. When you put me on a range, that range is for the spot I'm currently in...you know, what hands could I have in this spot given this action against this opponent. Maybe a bluff shouldnt be in my range, and my bluffing frequency should be zero on this turn/river, but im not sure thats what you're saying. Are you saying against a good player I should have some small % percentage here, but against an unknown it should be zero?

Re: Results
 

I definitely agree, I think you fold out those hands a vast majority of the time on the river.

Re: Results
 

I really don't see how villain can even think about calling with anything less than a queen. Hero made a halfish pot flop bet, and nearly potted the turn. He has shown lots of strength. Not many people here suggested villain should call with anything less than AQ, several people said he should fold anything worse than a flush. That was befoe we got to know heros hand though. And now suddenly we expect villain to call with TT/JJ? No way.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a bluff shouldnt be in my range, and my bluffing frequency should be zero on this turn/river, but im not sure thats what you're saying. Are you saying against a good player I should have some small % percentage here, but against an unknown it should be zero?

[/ QUOTE ]

close. Clearly, given the line you took on previous streets, your bluff% should be small against an unknown and slightly larger against a known good player (though not too big as a better player would take price into consideration and know that since you didn't check behind, that your hand is either a monster or a bluff which actually increases the % of the time that you bluff since monsters don't get dealt as often).

The other point is that your hand has showdown value against a good portion of his hand range anyway, so the third barrel gives you zip. You seem to be saying that it's bluff or lose, which it isn't.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Clearly, given the line you took on previous streets, your bluff% should be small against an unknown

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, now we're getting somewhere. It should be small, not zero. Where does the small % come from?


[ QUOTE ]
The other point is that your hand has showdown value against a good portion of his hand range anyway, so the third barrel gives you zip. You seem to be saying that it's bluff or lose, which it isn't.

[/ QUOTE ]

The range I have him on is basically 99/1010/JJ with a diamond, or AK with a diamond. Against that range a bluff seems mandatory to me. Given this player and how he played I really had a hard time putting him on a Q.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

UTG has a pocket pair lower than QQ that didn set, something like TT. Maybe a stubborn AK but I'm thinking something like JJ/TT maybe worse.

You are likely not on a move here as you'd prolly give up river. Its too convenient for villain to put u on missed draw and call u with his likely weak hand. I think you are probably making a standard value bet with any queen. QJ? QT? Maybe bigger hand, but I think it would be too boring if u had a set here. There's also a chance u are making a thin v bet with JJ or TT, but I'm not sure.

-Jason

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Obviously I don't make this flop bet often. Thing is on this particular hand I see two players who I have position on who it really looks to me like they have given up on their hand, and if they havent are likely to cr anyway and end the hand. I really thought the bet had a chance of winning close to the requisite 1/3 times, which is fine since i only bet 1/2 pot. Also, while I'm not planning on betting the turn when I make the flop bet, its certainly a possibility, but really I never expected to have the chance. If the guy behind me calls, I'm done, if the guy who likes to cr the turn calls, I'm done, and if anybody crs the flop, I'm done. The one outcome which might lead me to bet the turn happens...so I followed through (which I won't always do here).

[/ QUOTE ]

Well...as somebody pointed out the last time I posted something like this, it's not 1 in 3. You have to pick it up 1 in 3 times that you do *not* have the best hand, so in this hand, for example, you could have checked through the flop, bet the turn, checked behind on the river and beat his AK anyway (because I really think that's what he had.)

But OK, let's say it's still close to 1 in 3. They have 6 cards between them. Any big diamond, queen, red mid pair, or sometimes completely random stuff at least calls, plus the PFR has a small but significant chance of checkraising something like black aces, a pure whiff, etc.

[ QUOTE ]
Well thats just mean and uncalled for.

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Haha. Sorry [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] I think part of the concept is there, though...it's a hand where at least your backup plan is to follow through. I don't like that much at all because most of what calls the flop calls/CR's the turn.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your 'bluff' here had better be with the best hand because he's not folding so much as red JJ, IMO.

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Where does that come from? What leads you to believe he will call with these hands? This is a pretty important point because my bet is based on folding out 99/10/JJ with the draw. I really think he is folding these hands here (as he should).

[/ QUOTE ]

Vs. a thinking player, he called 3/4 pot/almost half your stacks on a blank and is getting something like 2.5:1 on a river that changed nothing. If he played JJ this way vs. a LAG as a semi-trap/bluff catcher, he's not folding it now. (See Strassa's hand)

Vs. a bad player, "I have JJ and I called the turn so I call the river".

[ QUOTE ]
One other question. In your original post you put a small chance of bluffing in my range of hands. What situations make that small percentage up? Are you saying that the times I'm bluffing in this spot are deffinitionally times I've screwed up the hand (and consequently while my bluffing frequency in this spot is small, it should be zero) or are there situations where bluffing would be correct....If so, what are those situations since you don't think this is one.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not necessarily...I can see you playing (for example) AdKx or AxKd this way yourself sometimes and I think that is a better hand to do this with. You're much less bluffing and much more semibluffing the flop/turn, and his most likely hand on the river actually ties you so now your push is +EV all by itself.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
so in this hand, for example, you could have checked through the flop, bet the turn, checked behind on the river and beat his AK anyway (because I really think that's what he had.)

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Well if you think villain has AK, like you say, then the line you suggest here is definitely inferior to MLG's line. Why check behind on the river vs. AK? doesn't make sense at all.

Re: Results
 

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Absolutely, but how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

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That depends on what you believe the value of these chips is relative to the cost of being eliminated (or essentially so). And could you explain why the nut flush never entered his hand range for your read? It seems like the most likely to me, given the strange check-call on the flop and turn.

Re: Results
 

I think he had AK in part because he folded the river. I just meant MLG could have taken his stab on the turn, shut down when UTG called and still shown down a winner.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
how often does he have to fold a hand that's beating me to make this bluff right on the river?

[/ QUOTE ] About 31% of the time.

So you believe that this fish who had, say, JJ, will fold more than 31% of the time on the river to your all-in push?

Think about his situation on the turn:
You bet 730.
The pot was 1660.
You had 1045 left in your hand.

Now, even the slowest fish knows that you are probably going to push the river. He calls your bet.

Now, think about his situation on the river:

You bet 1045.
The pot is 3430.

The bet is about the same. The pot is twice as large. Why in the world would he call your bet on the turn and fold on the river, when he knew you were going to push the river?

This is what I think:
If he had Adxx, he is folding to your river bet 100% of the time.
If he had JdJx, he is folding to your river bet at most 20% of the time.

And really, if you feel that the push on the river is justified, you should ask yourself this question: How did I get into this situation where I am pushing bottom pair on the river against a calling station who has already called 2 decent-sized bets . Because that’s a pretty crappy situation to be in, and it didn't have to be that way.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

you're actually hitting on what I think was my biggest mistake in the hand. How would you feel if I bet 500 on the turn instead of 730, and then pushed the river?

also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Well...as somebody pointed out the last time I posted something like this, it's not 1 in 3. You have to pick it up 1 in 3 times that you do *not* have the best hand

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of course you're right there, that was me being careless.

[ QUOTE ]
Vs. a thinking player, he called 3/4 pot/almost half your stacks on a blank and is getting something like 2.5:1 on a river that changed nothing. If he played JJ this way vs. a LAG as a semi-trap/bluff catcher, he's not folding it now. (See Strassa's hand)

Vs. a bad player, "I have JJ and I called the turn so I call the river".


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand this interpretaion even if I disagree with it. The thing is, when I asked about UTG calling ranges in my original post nobody mentioned that. Maybe thats my fault for not differentiating in the original post between what should he call with, and what will he call with. Still, it seems like you're arguing that he SHOULD call with JJ here, while in your original post you said he should fold a pair of Qs. Its not fair to change your mind now that you know what I have [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think he had AK in part because he folded the river. I just meant MLG could have taken his stab on the turn, shut down when UTG called and still shown down a winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are suggesting a line that we all know now could be a good one. The problem is, the reason we know it would be good is because of how he reacted to the line I took. Not fair to use that information in determining the best way to play the hand.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're actually hitting on what I think was my biggest mistake in the hand. How would you feel if I bet 500 on the turn instead of 730, and then pushed the river?

also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup, I've noticed this, and that's why hand evalutation is so hard to do on any forum. I'll just say this, no move in poker can be judged by anyone except those who were there and could feel the aura of the hand. I rarely do things like what you did, but I think you had a solid handle on the situation.

Re: Results
 

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at. I said he *should* fold AQ/JJ/etc. (although I discount JJ pretty heavily in his range tbh). The question is what he *will* do with JJ -given- that he check/called that big a bet on the turn already. He obviously liked his hand then, so why would he change his mind now?

As far as *I* am concerned, JJ is not nearly enough of a hand on a flop like that to bluff catch 3 streets, but if somebody wants to do it that badly, I don't see them folding that river.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
As far as *I* am concerned, JJ is not nearly enough of a hand on a flop like that to bluff catch 3 streets

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you were playing this hand with JJ and a flush draw you would....

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
You are suggesting a line that we all know now could be a good one. The problem is, the reason we know it would be good is because of how he reacted to the line I took. Not fair to use that information in determining the best way to play the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah. The way the hand plays out if I play it: I check the flop. Button probably checks. The turn is a 7 giving me a gutshot, it's checked to me (or the PFR underbets or something) and I bet or call. The PFR calls, I think 'hmm, either he has black something or other, or AK with the ace, I'm pretty much done' and check behind on the river/probably win the hand. It's obviously a much smaller pot, though, so given what we know your line has merit too [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Results
 

Bet the flop, CR it if I don't bet, bet the turn hard if I do neither of those...some way less passive line than that one.

Re: Results
 

yeah, I hear you and realistically he probably has AK here which i thought was pretty possible at the time. I just have a hard time believing that when so many people are talking about folding a Q im getting called by JJ/1010/99 so much. Then again, I like my play a lot better if i bet smaller on the turn leaving more stack to push on the river if i bet (and also losing less when I get cred).

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]

also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I said from the beginning that if he folded on the river, then he was chasing a flush. That's what fish do. So I've never changed my mind that he had Adxx.

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

I wasn't referring to you specifically, just the general responses. I did disagree with your oringal range of only a flush or a draw, I thought it was too narrow, because it didnt account for the possibility of a worse flush draw and a pairbut be that as it may you did say he will either call with the flush, or fold a draw and he cant have anything else. I did like the way you assessed the hand in that it was really unlikely he had a Q, which i completely agree with.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
yeah, I hear you and realistically he probably has AK here which i thought was pretty possible at the time. I just have a hard time believing that when so many people are talking about folding a Q im getting called by JJ/1010/99 so much. Then again, I like my play a lot better if i bet smaller on the turn leaving more stack to push on the river if i bet (and also losing less when I get cred).

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a lot depends on whether he can CR one pair (even if it's AA) because you picked up so many outs on the turn you really don't like folding. But I agree that if you bet, it should be less (but enough not to look weak.)

Re: I Just Called to Say How Much I Care
 

[ QUOTE ]
you're actually hitting on what I think was my biggest mistake in the hand. How would you feel if I bet 500 on the turn instead of 730, and then pushed the river?

also, I don't really understand the turn around in percpetion that everybody had here about his calling range. At first everybody says its really tight, now that we know im bluffing it includes 99/1010/JJ 80% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

duh, he should have called with 99/1010/jj like, all of the time that you're bluffing. duh.

i'm not going to change my mind that while you were bluffing this time, with the action that took place in this hand, you're going to be bluffing very infrequently. i mean, unless the guy like, super owns you, and knows that immediately after his flop call you think "he's on a draw or maybe JJ/TT/99" he should be folding such hands on hte river. even if he knows that you think this on his call, he should be foldin, as he should know htat your line looks the same when you have flopped a flush or a set, i would think.

so yeah, knowing you're bluffing, it's a call.

not knowing that, you should be bluffing here v infrequently, which means that they should be calling down with middling crap here v infrequently. which is why the bluff works so well, because it only has to do so infrequently to be profitable. yes, i think that you should have bet less on the turn for a variety of reasons.

i still stand by my "whatever he has he played it like crap." since to get involved this much in the hand in this fashion with a hand that is either a draw or a really ewwy hand like JJ-99 on the river is just bad playing.

c