Re: Live Hand: Pop it now or later?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Really? Thats a little weak tight don't you think? As for the "mindset" its based on what is likely since it is very difficult to put either of them on a hand due to their loose limping ranges.

On the flop we're behind a made flush (over 100:1), made straight J9 (another long shot), QQ, TT, 88 and QT and Q8. QQ we would likely have seen a raise preflop, TT or 88 only 1 combo each since I have the T and 8. QT and Q8 are somewhat reasonable possibilities (again I already have a T and 8). Anything else I'm ahead of. I'm ahead more often than not. With a straight and flush draw, its about 50/50. So what are you putting them on here? What are we fearing?

Don't forget we're getting something like 11:2 here.

Results soon.


[ QUOTE ]

This is a classic fold your bottom two pair on the flop for 2 bets hand. I really don't like the mindset of some ppl to 'put them on a hand I am ahead of'.

One is betting the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] with a pair, the other is raising the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I'd limp preflop as well, but I'm not even sure you are ahead on the flop. I'd muck.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how you can fold here with that pot size, the strong chance you are ahead, and your 4 outs to a monster. So, do you call or 3-bet?

If you're ahead, certainly many turn cards can hurt you. But if you 3-bet, you very well may knock out folks drawing to a bigger 2 pair, sets, gutshots or backdoors. I'm therefore leaning toward protecting our hand here with the 3-bet. And if those weak draws call incorrectly, you've gained much value, correct?

A big reason to wait for the turn is if a flop bet won't protect your hand, right? It appears a reraise here will protect your hand.

Re: Live Hand: Pop it now or later?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a classic fold your bottom two pair on the flop for 2 bets hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that a classic? Not one that I have heard -- but this might be a good situation to step back from the hand.

Think about how many scare cards are there on the turn? I think any spade, A, K, Q, J, or 9 is very scary. About half the deck scares us -- and we may already be behind.

Of course there are redraws (unless a villain gets his straight flush).

That being said, I call or raise -- depending on how I feel the rest of the pool will respond -- because I envision a large number of chips eventually joining my stacks.

Re: Live Hand: Pop it now or later?
 

Ok here is what happened. First I'll go through my thought process. Tell me whether you agree or disagree and why (thats more important than the results):

1) I recognized that there aren't that many safe cards on the turn that I could pop in a raise.

2) Having said that I also thought I was ahead on the flop, although my edge may not be that high with the monotone board and the action before me.

3) A 3 bet could potentially buy me a free card on the turn even if a spade falls - i.e. I anticipate one of the donks to suffer from fancy play syndrome and go for a check raise on a spade turn.


Based on the 3 reasons, I 3 bet, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Turn was a 5 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG+1 checks, I bet, UTG+1 folds.

Comments?