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-   -   Lay Down a Full House? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=400219)

12-17-2005 01:19 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
even though retards love to play k9o and the like... this is still an auto push/call.

Hattifnatt 12-17-2005 01:29 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
[ QUOTE ]
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...0&fpart=all

[/ QUOTE ]
The full house call is easyer imo, but this one is a no-brainer call as well.

yvesaint 12-17-2005 01:38 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
c/r more on the flop or lead out yourself

Isura 12-17-2005 02:32 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
[ QUOTE ]
This is one of the easiest calls I have seen posted this week

[/ QUOTE ]

This is one of the easiest calls in the history of poker.

JimNashe 12-17-2005 07:26 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
An interesting excercise would be to figure out what the villain has that prompted the OP to post this hand. My guess is 99.

aces_dad 12-17-2005 07:53 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
You realize K9 is drawing to three outs when the money went in right?

Also donks is preferrable to your description of villian.

12-17-2005 09:04 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House?
 
He doesn't have KK, which is quite obvious. Calling 0.50 preflop in that position could (in this case) be 99 or 89o. Judging from his calling the c/r after the flop, he has 89o and ends up with nines over eights and has got you beat.

12-18-2005 12:28 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House? - MY THOUGHTS
 
OK - I suppose it would be fair to say that everyone agrees with the call.

Here's my thought process, and why I didn't think it was automatic, focusing only on his possible holdings:

On the flop, he could certainly be bluffing, but it doesn't seem quite right - I would assume he would fold to a decent-sized CR if he had nothing. So, I think he has a decent hand. Here are the possibilities and my thoughts...

AK/KK - Not likely. He would probably have raised pre-flop.
KQ/KJ/KT - Definitely a possibility. I would consider these likely, in that he may think he's beaten, but wants to call to see the turn.
K9 - Possible. It's not a hand I would play there, but especiialy suited a lot of people will.
K8 - Probably not - I see a lot fewer people playing this hand.
99/88 - Definitely possible. He might have called to draw in the button and is planning a raise on the turn.
98 - Possible. Especially suited, I can see him playing this.

So, after the flop, I'm thinking he has KQ/KJ/KT/K9/99/98/88.

When the 8 hits on the turn, I'm obviously quite happy. I bet out, hoping to keep him somewhat interested in the hand, but get some cash in there.

His all-in raise on the turn really had me going, which is why I had such a tough time making the call. Going back to the earlier possibilities -

KQ/KJ/KT - I don't see this at all.
K9 - Maybe - this seems unlikely given that the board just paired - I would think he'd be a little more cautious - but I could see it.
99 - Maybe. I think he would have put in a smaller raise with this hand to keep me in, but I could see this, too.
98 - Certainly possible. I think this is pretty likely based on the way he has played so far.
88 - Not possible any more.

So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast. The only problem is, I still didn't feel good about the hands I had him on - something just wasn't clicking for me. That's what made this a hard call for me.

So, can anyone offer any thoughts on this line of thinking? Am I way off, should I have thought of something else, etc.?

I'll post the results separately so people can comment on this before they see what he was actually holding.

12-18-2005 12:34 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House? - RESULTS
 
OK - the final results.

MP3 turns over JT - a hand I had not even considered. He was semi-bluffing the flop and called my raise with an open-ended straight draw, then raised me all-in on the turn with a paired board. I won the hand and did the happy dance.

As I played more with the guy (I think we played for about 75 hands), it turns out he really liked raising, particularly all-in. He ended up losing a decent chunk of cash before leaving the table.

So, part of the reason that I've been vague on my reason for posting this is that I never considered his actual holding as a possibility, which bothers me. I'm trying to improve my game, particularly reading hands, and I wanted to get some advice from everyone else. Looking back, this was clearly a possibility, but my thinking is that this kind of play was a very remote chance, so I probably shouldn't be too worried.

Comments?

12-18-2005 02:42 PM

Re: Lay Down a Full House? - MY THOUGHTS
 
[ QUOTE ]

So, faced with these options, my thinking is that he most likely has 99 or 98. 98 I can beat, 99 I'm toast.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am pretty tired atm and I've looked it up and down, but doesn't 89 beat you as well?


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