Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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How much do you think it matters that a player is allin? I've been noticing (at 5/10 at least) that, when there's a third player allin, people have somewhat of a tendency to overplay their hands.

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I agree a bit. I think he'll overplay his hand up to the river. But on the river I think he'll play more conservatively.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How much do you think it matters that a player is allin? I've been noticing (at 5/10 at least) that, when there's a third player allin, people have somewhat of a tendency to overplay their hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree a bit. I think he'll overplay his hand up to the river. But on the river I think he'll play more conservatively.

Krishan

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Wouldn't that argue for a river bet rather than a river c/r?

Rob

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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Wouldn't that argue for a river bet rather than a river c/r?

Rob

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I think he would value bet any ace. And I thought that was enough for me to cr. I think he would check behind with KK, JJ.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

betting the flop is complete and utter suicide

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

are the 4 combos of QJ possible?

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

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are the 4 combos of QJ possible?

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It's a stretch. I'd discount to 10% at a minimum.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

ok if you're sure he's a reasonable, solid player that seems like a good fold then. KJ beats you too

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

Alright, here is my analysis. I think he'd 3-bet with KJs+, A9s+, ATo+ 66+. But I don't think he fires the turn with underpairs to the board, especially with the 1 guy all in. That narrows his hand range considerably.

I'm actually having second thoughts about the turn.

I think the river is tough. Some aces got counterfeit and there are still a lot of hands I'm behind to. I think bet/call, check-raise/fold both have merits.

Krishan

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

Yes, this turn would be a textbook spot for him to check behind KK/JJ/KQ/QJ if he can have it. So if you know he's good you should probably fold.

Board: Ad Ts 9c Qh
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 10.2691 % 09.27% 01.00% { KsQs }
Hand 2: 89.7309 % 88.73% 01.00% { AA, QQ, TT-99, A9s+, KJs, ATo+ }

Re: Hand against Numpty...
 

kq and qj are definite hands here.