Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

Hi tigerite,

Do you mean he will call the vast majority of the time if he understands ICM, or he will call whether he does or not?

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

Come on, he has to call 1100 to win (600+300+150+1700) = 2750. Do you people really think he's going to fold a lot?

By ICM, he certainly shouldn't fold a lot. I think he would only need to win in the region of 38-40% of the time to call, actually.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

I think you need for him to fold about 40% of the time to make a push right.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

[ QUOTE ]
We have been given a read by the OP remember:

[ QUOTE ]
Big stack has been minraising often and generally folded when played back at.

[/ QUOTE ]

Therefore it's unlikely he calls 99.9% of the time as stated...

[/ QUOTE ]

Considering the only person who has likely been "playing back at him" is the current BB (look at the stacks), that is an entirely different situation.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

[ QUOTE ]
LOL I was way out. Try under 33%. Still think he's folding?

If he has something like 97s here, he should even call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if he should call with 97s that doesn't mean he will. This was what I was getting at with my question earlier. BTW do we know the buy-in? I didn't see it, but if this is a 10 or 20 (and add OP's read of this player) I think there's a good chance of this player making a mistake and folding something like 97s or maybe something even stronger

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

If he had made a normal 3xbb raise, he'd be facing an 800 call to win 3050.

This should make you realize that any raise from the big stack basically prices him into the pot and is essentially an all-in play.

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

The thing that's influencing me the most is that you're effectively also a shortstack, and if you keep folding the "real" shortstack could overtake you before you know it. He goes all next hand with JT, the BB calls with 8 5 and loses, and all of a sudden you're a favourite to go out next. Say the short stack went out next hand. With you're current stack you'll have very little fold equity when the blinds go to 200/400, especially if you don't steal before you're next session in the blinds. Win this pot and you can make a run at first, which is "where all the money is".

Re: Bubble...These situations are way too tempting
 

Correct. That's what I was trying to say, but people still think he will fold getting almost 3:1 odds - even with him "min raising" instead of the standard 3xbb.

Also, the fact he's been played back at may make it even more likely he has a hand here, because maybe he's fed up of it. At the least, I think it makes it more likely he'll fold just to show the others "I will make a stand now, so don't do it again". Let's be honest, even losing here doesn't hurt him very much at all.