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-   Psychology (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=24)
-   -   Being hot vs being due (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=394959)

12-10-2005 09:22 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
being "due" is a gamblers fallacy, and it really doesn't make a difference if you switch, assuming the coin is fair.

12-10-2005 09:58 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
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It doesnt matter... unless it is different weight, but realistically speaking if it is a 50/50, then it doesnt matter at all, lol.

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did you really laugh out loud at this point?

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lol, I really laughed out loud at that, but as for psychology I think I would be more inclined to get pissed off if I switched and then proceeded to loose, where as if I stayed and lost I could just accuse the mofo of cheating.

But honestly does anyone ever gamble on coin flips, I mean god damn why are there so many of these little scenarios always being posted

SNOWBALL138 12-10-2005 10:46 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
[ QUOTE ]
But honestly does anyone ever gamble on coin flips, I mean god damn why are there so many of these little scenarios always being posted

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I came up with a deceptive coin flip prop bet that netted me a whopping $.75 before my friend quit on me. O well.

Chris Daddy Cool 12-10-2005 01:57 PM

Re: Follow up question
 
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If you were the other guy, would you be more or less inclined to switch?

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This is the same question as the OP.

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not neccessarily because the other guy has been on the winning end.

AlanBostick 12-10-2005 02:09 PM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
Terrible poll design. I must vote to see the results, and neither choice represents my belief.

Both positions are fallacies; your poll presumes that polltakers must subscribe to either one or the other, and leaves no room for polltakers who subscribe to neither.

cold_cash 12-11-2005 02:02 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
Buzzkill.

I'm due baby!

MTBlue 12-11-2005 07:14 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
I'm still amazed that people are actually are sticking with heads more than switching to tails. The chances that this coin is perfectly fair is growing smaller and smaller and it is much more likely that the coin is biased toward tails.

12-11-2005 10:42 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
I switch between heads and tails everytime because due to the coin's physics, its will necessarily show a bias towards landing on one side (even if that bias is an extremely small one). This way I minimize my loss towards its natural bias without knowing which side it is biased towards.

GuyOnTilt 12-11-2005 11:40 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
[ QUOTE ]

But honestly does anyone ever gamble on coin flips, I mean god damn why are there so many of these little scenarios always being posted

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Hahahahaha! Man, you really should see some of the [censored] we do.

Edit: Case in point: OP has lost well over $1k in our last two Rock Paper Scissors sessions. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

GoT

GuyOnTilt 12-11-2005 11:44 AM

Re: Being hot vs being due
 
In this particular scenario, my first instinct is definitely to stick with what's due for whatever reason. That doesn't go across the board though, again, for whatever reason. Sometimes momentum outweighs being due. Not often, but sometimes.

GoT


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