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-   -   Ever fold KK preflop? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=391096)

12-04-2005 01:39 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
Yeah, I know what you mean. It's really negative reinforcement. Like getting beaten by A-rag all the time. Doesn't mean you should play A-rag, but if I had, I can honestly state that my downsing wouldn't be near as severe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Obviously, my reasoning for folding was wrong. I'll not do it again. I was really curious, though, if other folks would make a similar decision when you're running so cold. Like I said, when KK only wins 28% of the time over 2700 hands, do you factor that in. Over the long haul, it should even out, but I was wondering do you make adjustments in the short haul (sorta like daytraders do with stock).

benkath1 12-04-2005 01:45 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
From what you're all saying, you don't let the "cold-streak" affect your decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

not at all.

[ QUOTE ]
How is this not true? When a hand only wins only 28% of the time, raising should be -EV with. Actually, I guess with 4 players, you could argue that it is +EV. But only barely.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to keep in mind that you could be misplaying these after seeing the flop and that is causing some of your extra losses. Break it down street by street. The way this hand went you could safely fold on the flop. Actually with the size of the pot, I think you could have seen the turn profitably, but even if you hit your King, you would still have to play with caution due to the AA factor.

[ QUOTE ]
Right I really would've capped, too. But since it was 4 to me, and given the fact that my KK had already been busted earlier (numerous times, and Jack Frost has been nipping at me)

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Try not to be results oriented.

[ QUOTE ]
If you've been running so cold that it's affecting the way you play hands, you're on tilt. The kind of tilt that stays with you while you're asleep and you're still on it when you come back to the table the next day. You have to take some time off, dude.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is esxellent advice. See how you are playing when you come back. If 5 days isn't enough, take another 5. Re read SSHE or TOP. Post some hands and reply to more, then hit it again. The fish aren't going anywhere.

I just pulled out of my first downswing in a year. Took 4 days off and did some studying. Came back with my head on straight and to quote the Shermanator "Confidence is high, repeat, confidence is high".

bozlax 12-04-2005 01:48 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
How is this not true? When a hand only wins only 28% of the time, raising should be -EV with. Actually, I guess with 4 players, you could argue that it is +EV. But only barely.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because your results don't matter. It can't be -EV to cap KK preflop, as EV is a statistical concept and therefore doesn't take into account your results over the past 3 weeks. You've been losing...that doesn't change the statistical probability that your KK is going to win.

[ QUOTE ]
Right [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I really would've capped, too. But since it was 4 to me, and given the fact that my KK had already been busted earlier (numerous times, and Jack Frost has been nipping at me)

[/ QUOTE ]

Results, again.

[ QUOTE ]
Resigned acceptance is really where I'm at now. I guess I'm just expecting to get sucked out. Is that tilt as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.

(I didn't read the rest, as I have to take my kids out of the house before they burn it down.)

Catsailor 12-04-2005 02:05 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
Grunch:
Call this everytime. Of all the hands that 3b and cap only AA is ahead of you. that leaves alot of hands behind preflop. You have major equity and a there is a lot of money in the pot. Why not flop KK and make it easy. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
Your cold streak has no factor in this. The cards do not know you. Every hand is a separate event! Maybe focus on your postflop play. If an A falls on the flop you can dump easy. Think of every hand as the beginning of your hot streak. Don't let poor results change your proper decision making.

WordWhiz 12-04-2005 02:08 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Because your results don't matter. It can't be -EV to cap KK preflop, as EV is a statistical concept and therefore doesn't take into account your results over the past 3 weeks. You've been losing...that doesn't change the statistical probability that your KK is going to win.


[/ QUOTE ]

To add on to Bozlax's excellent analysis, let me just add this simple reminder:

EV = Expected Value, not actual value.

David04 12-04-2005 02:29 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
No, folding KK preflop would be stupid. Even if you somehow "know" that your opponent has AA, your implied odds are huge if you flop a set.

SCfuji 12-04-2005 02:37 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
hello pat,

to answer your question, no. if you do feel like folding KK you should stop playing as you are probably tired, have doubts about your play, or are on tilt.

12-04-2005 02:52 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
No. Never. Not for ANY reason. If you cannot cap/call cap with 'em, its time to log off & go outside for a walk.

shant 12-04-2005 02:57 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
Over a good sample, KK wins for me 75% of the time. On average, I win 2.25BB when I play it. You just threw away money.

If you are going to improve as a player, you need to forget about past results attached to a hand because they are meaningless. If I was on a cold run, I would be excited as [censored] to see KK. This talk about "having a feeling I was going to lose" is lame and it makes you sound like the degenerate gamblers you would find at a live poker table who had a feeling their 78o was going to flop a straight.

Next time call and play poker.

12-04-2005 03:00 PM

Re: Ever fold KK preflop?
 
[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I know what you mean. It's really negative reinforcement. Like getting beaten by A-rag all the time. Doesn't mean you should play A-rag, but if I had, I can honestly state that my downsing wouldn't be near as severe [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Obviously, my reasoning for folding was wrong. I'll not do it again. I was really curious, though, if other folks would make a similar decision when you're running so cold. Like I said, when KK only wins 28% of the time over 2700 hands, do you factor that in. Over the long haul, it should even out, but I was wondering do you make adjustments in the short haul (sorta like daytraders do with stock).

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes! Absolutely. Put your pocket change in your LEFT pocket. Put a golf tee over your RIGHT ear. Double knot your Nike's (go buy Nike's if you don't have them!) Use the index finger of your opposite hand to raise BUT the middle finger to FOLD! . . .

Or maybe just try a different poker site for a nice change of scenery.


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