Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

I would fold the turn with no remorse.

newhizzle, say you are ahead of his range with AK. When he caps, you are now behind of most of his range and are committed to putting another SB in Preflop.

Does the fact that he will cap anything that you don't beat but only call things that you beat make up for the fact that you may be ahead of his raising range...?

I am not sure if this is close at all but it may be interesting since you are OOP. Does anybody know the answer to this?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I would fold the turn with no remorse.

newhizzle, say you are ahead of his range with AK. When he caps, you are now behind of most of his range and are committed to putting another SB in Preflop.

Does the fact that he will cap anything that you don't beat but only call things that you beat make up for the fact that you may be ahead of his raising range...?

I am not sure if this is close at all but it may be interesting since you are OOP. Does anybody know the answer to this?

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well for one thing if he caps it probably tells us a lot more about his hand, but hes probably not capping most of the time, i think this is a clear 3-bet for value and initiative

edit - and if he does have a big pair, its cheaper than check/raising the flop and calling a 3-bet

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

i dont know exactly what percentage of hands an 11% raiser is raising from this spot 7 handed, but i just plugged top 11% into pokerstove versus AKd and were ahead 60/40

also keep in mind that if he dosent have a pair, we likely have him dominated

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

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Are you kidding? It's not even close! You have a monster hand here.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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i dont know exactly what percentage of hands an 11% raiser is raising from this spot 7 handed, but i just plugged top 11% into pokerstove versus AKd and were ahead 60/40

You are 60/40 versus his raising hands correct...

also keep in mind that if he dosent have a pair, we likely have him dominated

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But when you 3-bet and he calls the 60% of time, you both put in 3SB preflop, so you have a >50% equity of 6SB or approximately >3SB

But if he raises when he is ahead, he has >50% equity of 8SB or approximately >4SB

so 60% of the time you have more of 6SB than him but 40% of the time he has more of 8SB.

I am just wondering if "added with loss for position" this makes this raise not so standard.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I am not sure I agree with the 3-bet pf due to our position, but it is close.

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Are you kidding? It's not even close! You have a monster hand here.

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I don't think it is correct to say we have a monster and that it isn't close without saying why?

Yes we have a good hand, but we are out of position and we are playing against a semi-tight player. If you add in the fact that he will raise hands that beat you and call hands that don't beat you then I am sure the equity edge isn't that high?

Could you clarify why just because we have a good hand we should raise?

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

When considering our equity edge I don't think a hot/cold analysis is enough. Often times when we are ahead we are VERY ahead, and when we are behind its only slight. Getting capped by QQ isn't a huge equity loss, because we're not that far behind. On the other hand threebetting ATs through AQ is massive, not to mention KQs. Sure every once in awhile he'll have KK and AA, but fearing monsters under the bed isn't a reason to not exploit a clear equity edge.

Frogic

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

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I don't think it is correct to say we have a monster and that it isn't close without saying why?

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I think here it is. It's about the easiest raise ever for a bunch of reasons. This seems like such an elementary move I don't even feel like I have to explain it.

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Yes we have a good hand, but we are out of position and we are playing against a semi-tight player.

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I think you are giving this guy too much credit. My pfr at that level is around 11, but in LP1 if it's been folded around I will open with probably 20% of my hands depending on who's left to act.

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If you add in the fact that he will raise hands that beat you and call hands that don't beat you then I am sure the equity edge isn't that high?

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What beats you here? As long as he doesn't have AA or KK (which he will very rarely have here), you are in good shape. If you 3-bet you take the initiative, gain value learn more about his hand and get a big boost in fold equity.

Again, I think this is so obvious that it's probably a waste of time to argue about it. If I'm wrong here I hope people tell me though bc then I'm missing something huge.

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

ok, i just did some math

if we assume he raises the top 11 % of his hands, according to pokerstove, thats 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, ATo+, KQo+

i think thats fairly accurate from his position

lets assume he caps JJ+, AKo and AKs

now theres 79 combos of 77-TT, A9s-AQs, KTs-KQs, QTs-QJs, ATo-AQo, and KQo(while we have the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img])

theres 24 combos of AA-JJ, AKs and AKo

with the first set we have 65% equity according to pokerstove and with the second, we have 42%

it costs us 2 bets to 3-bet and 3 bets if we get capped and we get capped about 30% of the time

so 70 % of the time we will pay 2 BB with 65 % equity and 30% of the time we will pay 3 BB with 42% equity

we will forget about the money already in the pot and just see how we do on these bets

70% of the time we turn our 2 BB into about 2.6 for a longrun profit of .6 BB/hand and 30% of the time we turn 3 into 2.52 for a net loss of .48 BB/hand

after 100 hands we have lost 14.4 BB and won 42 for a net of 27.6 or an EV of .276BB per hand

if we call, we are always investing 1 BB and are a 60% favorite against his range 100% of the time, so after 100 hands we have won 60 dollars and lost 40 for a net of 20 BB or an EV of .2BB/hand

so by raising we are making a profit of .076BB per hand plus we will have the initiative on the flop, but ill cancel that out because we are OOP and just look at the EV

someone please check my math, i was just doing this as i was going along, and theres probably a much easier way to do it too

Re: AK play vs. TAGy
 

The problem with the math, as I see it, is that you're assuming 11% from his position. The 11% is from a full table that I think has gone a bit shy of people (correct me if I'm wrong). And we're talking about an 11% in the hijack -- I don't know about you, but my 9% PFR reflects say an average that ranges from 4% or so UTG and 15-20% from hijack to button. So trotting out the math to reflect only 11% of hands is way off for any villain even mildly aware of position, which I think basically means they're breathing.

Easy PF raise. For many reasons...

One thing I haven't heard anyone say for the PF raise, is that against some of the hands you're an underdog to (99 - QQ) you also have a slight edge post flop if a lone A or K comes along and if you miss the flop. They'll have a tough time folding (well, tough decision time) with the lone A or K; whereas you might have an easier time getting away from your hand if you miss. So, more likely they'll pay you off than you'll pay them off with AK. I'm not sure I'm phrasing this one right, but that's the gist of it.