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-   -   Drawing for outs on the flop? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=389350)

Tilt 12-02-2005 10:23 AM

Re: Drawing for outs on the flop?
 
If you are gonna call longshots on the flop, you need a few conditions to persist to make it profitable:

1) Your opponent will pay you off handsomely. At lower levels this happens often.

2) Your longshot draw is well disguised, so your opponent will have a hard time putting you on it.

3) If you hit, you will not get drawn out on very often.

4) You have reason to believe (or rather no reason to not believe) that your longshot outs are live.

I am not sure that any of these conditons exist in your example.

But here is a situation where this play is sometimes useful. Say in an unraised pot you have a QQxx in LP and see a flop of 997. The first raiser looks like he has 97 to you, and a caller has some 9 plus a few upper cards you think. If the stacks are deep, thats a situation where I sometimes take a card. You are about 1/20 to hit your Q for a price of perhaps 5BB, but hitting probably means 100BB - 200BB +. You will get paid if you hit and will almost never get redrawn. And then there will be lots of sloppy tilty play to follow after you hit a draw like this which is highly EV as well.

12-02-2005 11:41 AM

Re: Drawing for outs on the flop?
 
If he is thinking about bluff equity and such backdoor hands, why not re-3/4pot it and take a free card off on the turn- this will give u a better idea of how strong ur opponent is and will give u a chance to bluff @ it on turn or river. I do not think this is a good situation to make a "loose gamble" or anything like that because u have no information on the holding of ur opponent. Your opponent could be leading with a wrap and u could be playing into his hand. I think that the weakest hand someone leads here with is 2 pair. I think that if u reraise he might give u respect for better than 2 pair. However, if u hit ur 9, ur likely to get little money out of this pot because unless he has the nuts as well will shut down. So ur bluff outs are, Q, 10, 6, 7, 4, but a lot of these outs are going to be gone by other players and he might have a better SD here. I think if ur going to play it (which i wouldnt) I would reraise here and take control of the hand.


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