Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

Of course he'll bet that turn with AA. The question is not how often he'll bet the turn, it's how often he'll bet the turn with a hand that you beat. Since that probability is smaller than you may think, and since your equity on the flop is larger than your post gave it, I think I'm in the raise the flop camp.

Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

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Arn't you making a pretty big assumption in assuming he will always bet the turn? Against 3 opponents, I don't think he bets the turn that often.

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Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that I'm assuming BB will always bet the turn, though I'm hoping he will (so I can see if UTG raises or not).

But I do think the BB will bet the turn quite a bit here. If he has an overpair he almost certainly will, possibly even an underpair. If he has AK or AQ, I think he has to take another shot. There's a not insignificant chance his A high is still best (remember with the paired board only 5 cards in his opponents hand can hurt have A high beat) - the board is extremely draw heavy so he doesn't have to assume his A is behind.

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If an overpair bets the turn, and you are raising, that is bad news for you. Most underpairs don't raise like that from the BB. He may bet other holdings, but against 3 opponents, and way OOP, a lot of people don't bet again. Plenty of times he is checking the turn, and then you don't get to raise. This is why I prefer a flop raise.

Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

I tend to think that it's better to raise the flop than wait for the turn as well. What range of hands is villian leading both the flop and the turn that hero beats? I guess I can contrive a few, though supposing this (in the form of UI overs) is IMO a tad optimistic.

The point: there are many times when BB won't bet out on the turn, but when he does yr equity is very likely not to have gone up. That is why I like raising the flop here.

Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

Interesting...it looks like everyone raises the flop.

I have a follow up question:

Are you folding if the turn is a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or an A, K, or Q? Please answer for if you are donked, and if you are cr-ed if they are different.

To clarify: I am not necessarily implying that the answer to this question is predicated on whether or not you raised the flop.

Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

I think a turn c/r on any scare card from either of these guys mean's we're behind and can fold rather than draw to a 2 outer. If it's a donk from BB on an A, it's probably the same thing. A donk on a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] could be from someone holding a lone heart, so I'd call down unless a fourth hits.

Re: Value bet the river?
 

Raise the flop. You've got the best hand here very often, everyone else will come along for another bet.
You have position.
If the turn gets donked and raised you can fold. Otherwise keep betting until someone gives you a reason not to.

Bet the river.
These guys will lead any Kx hand here.
You'll get calls from all kinds of mid-pair hands, even Ax sometimes.
They call too much and go too far with their hands. This is where you make up for all those times they suck out on you.

As for the long pause, usually this is a made hand, but unless I've seen this guy do this with a made hand before it could just as easily been him looking at porn between streets..

If one of them was slowplaying 7x, make a note and go from there..

Re: Value bet the river?
 

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I am the best player at the table and have been somewhat dominant.

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This is my favorite start to a thread ever.

Re: Value bet the river? (LONG, with numbers)
 

The pot is not really big enough to need to wait for the turn.

Re: Value bet the river?
 

Preflop.....good

Flop.....I like to raise here (though I'm not positive it's the best play) I like your hand at this point, you're behind to a 7 or a larger pocket pair, you need to find out were you stand. BB bets and re-raises with the 7 or larger pocket pair and bets and calls with the flush or straight draw. It seems important to have him tell us where he is. According to Sklansky, one of the reasons to raise is to gain information, and I don't think we learn anything by calling.

Turn....One of the reasons I raise the flop is so that I'm not in this situation on the turn. I want to have control by the turn or know that I need to let go or call down. And with the flop call I don't feel that we have enough info to know where we stand. Which leads to the.......

River.....I like the check here because we don't really know where we are and though they may call with losing hands, they may also c/r with winning hands.

I am in no way married to this line, and would appreciate feed back on it.

Just noticed your location. On belay. Where do you climb, at what level? I was leading 5.8+ on sight at my best. Though I thought the high end of my ability was 5.9 a buddy led me up a 5.11a one day after telling me it was 5.9. No falls, no problems, lol. Amazing what the mind can accomplish when it doesn't know any better. My goals changed shortly there after and I quit climbing. God I loved the sharp end though, I don't know that I've ever felt better than when I've needed to get a piece in a rock, sewing machine leg sets in along with fear and focus, and then I get it done and finish the climb....what a rush.