Re: I always pay off
 

Selective memory maybe? I see TAGs take shots at me a not-infrequent amount of the time. I'm too lazy/tired to do the math and see how often he has to be raising a worse hand here for our calldown to be good, but at the games I play in (15/30) you can't fold this or you'll get run over. At 5/10 with a UTG vs BB battle you could probably let it go. I can't remember what that game is even like anymore, and I've been told that my play there was probably sub-optimal because I considered metagame too heavily and my play was more suited to 10/20+.

Surf

Re: I always pay off
 

You're probably running bad and always looking at a set, but this would be a terrible fold in general. There are spots to make it, but you better know your opponent and how he will play a flopped ace/flopped monster and everything else really well.

-Michael

Re: I always pay off
 

There're a couple good fellows who I'll fold this to. They make up, like, 10% of the player base, though. If I saw you make a couple of bet bet folds on a board like this I'd start raising for showdown like mad when we got together.

Re: I always pay off
 

I think that many things work against the calldown here. You were UTG when you raised, an ace came out, the turn card did not complete any likely draw, and a generally passive opponent check-raised the turn. Also, the likelihood that this opponent is taking a shot at you based on sensing some weakness you have is low given the title of your post.

As a guess (feel free to rip apart my hand calcs). You are winning about 11% of showdowns against a range of hands (A8s, A8o, A7s, A7o, A4s, A4o, 87s, 87o, 88, 77, 44). You are winning about 80% of showdowns against some random bluff that might include a flush draw, worse pair, or pair plus weak draw. If you need to win 22% of showdowns to break even, then your opponent needs to be bluffing about 14% or more. I don't think it is likely that this passive type of opponent is bluffing this often on this board against an UTG raiser who always calls down. This just isn't a great bluffing opporunity for the BB in my opinion. If there is equity in the calldown getting ~7:2 then there can't be much.


Dave

Re: I always pay off
 

This is exactly my thought process in these situations

Re: I always pay off
 

I call this down; sometimes I three-bet (but not if the player will always fire on the river if I call); there are very few players against whom I lay down here, and a generic 25/11 in the BB doesn't hit that threshhold despite my raise having come from UTG.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]


Flop: *Yay, I hit an ace...time to bet my lock hand*

Turn: *Good card, I still feel pretty safe*....(Our House gets raised).....*WTF!! OK, I could be drawing dead, BUT...I think most likely either I have outs to his two pair or I can be ahead to a margin of error for his bad play...I'll call*

River: *SH!T I missed. But the pot's too big at this point....I only have to be good 1 in XX times....I CALL AGAIN*

(Disappointment sets as villain shows AK or A8 or his set)



[/ QUOTE ]

lol, 5 stars. i especially love the 'lock hand' part, because i think the same thing.

Re: I always pay off
 

Good situation to discuss. I believe we're usually beat here, but that it's really hard to fold.

One thing I don't think should be discounted is the possibility that the villain has hit some relatively mediocre 2 pair on the flop or turn, especially considering he's calling from bb. In that case, you have a fair amount of outs to hit a better 2 pair.

And I also think that there's something to be said for metagame considerations. If this is an unknown opponent, I don't mind calling down once to make sure he's not pulling this routine with less than top pair; that info is pretty valuable.

Re: I always pay off
 

[ QUOTE ]
I call this down; sometimes I three-bet (but not if the player will always fire on the river if I call); there are very few players against whom I lay down here, and a generic 25/11 in the BB doesn't hit that threshhold despite my raise having come from UTG.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should de-emphasize the absolute. I will fold this sometimes depending on the player. But absent a read other than the VPIP/PFR (which means he or I is usually pretty new to the table), I'll see a showdown.

Re: I always pay off
 

Whats your table image, are you stealing alot or a little? Any notes on his blind defense strategies? Is he over aggro? I can't get away from this hand heads up. Call down and take notes. Its def. a WA/WB situation.