Re: Ill-advised c/r river bluff? (they usually are)
 

Eric, it doesn't make much sense analyzing the turn bet from a HU perspective. Someone calling to prevent you from bluffing is much less relevant in a multiway pot. The turn bet is good exactly because 4 opponents chekked the flop and we don't want to give them a free card to catch up!

Re: Ill-advised c/r river bluff? (they usually are)
 

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Eric, it doesn't make much sense analyzing the turn bet from a HU perspective. Someone calling to prevent you from bluffing is much less relevant in a multiway pot. The turn bet is good exactly because 4 opponents chekked the flop and we don't want to give them a free card to catch up!

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Hi rigoletto,

I agree that the multiway nature of this pot changes things. I think that the HU analysis is relevant though, because it gives you an idea of how rarely you should take down this pot if your opponents are playing well.

As I said in my post, I'm not sure how to handle, mathematically, the multiple opponents. I suspect though, that if everybody played perfectly, they'll put up a better defense then you will face heads up. That is, I'd expect them to both play and raise a little more than what you would see if the pot was heads up. In a sense, they wil collude against you and select the best hand out of their five and show it down against your steal.

Now, this is all assuming that they play well and correctly according to game theory, which they probably don't. The point is, once you see that betting doesn't look so good HU, it should look even worse multi-way.

I'm not opposed to betting if you feel that this is a situation where most players are too tight. In fact, I agree that you'd be right, most players ARE too tight here. The point is, you have to believe that they are all much too tight to justify the bet. I'm not sure the OP is prepared to go this far against these opponents.

my 2 cents.
Eric

Re: Ill-advised c/r river bluff? (they usually are)
 

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I'd expect them to both play and raise a little more than what you would see if the pot was heads up

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In my experience it is exactly opposite; people don't defend against a bluff multiway because they don't expect one. In addition you are more likely to get up against a resteal HU.

In this case there is a good chance that we are actually ahead on the turn and this is what makes it a bet!