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-   -   A flop question (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=380911)

sean c 11-18-2005 11:02 AM

Lets change the flop
 
Okay no one likes a bet here with our 7.5 outer oop but lets change this up a little.

1) if last to act and checked to would you bet? If so why?

2) Make the flop A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would you bet here and why?

imported_The Vibesman 11-18-2005 11:07 AM

Re: Lets change the flop
 
[ QUOTE ]
Okay no one likes a bet here with our 7.5 outer oop but lets change this up a little.

1) if last to act and checked to would you bet? If so why?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, because even if I get called it increases the possibility of my getting a free card on the turn.

[ QUOTE ]

2) Make the flop A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] would you bet here and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd rather check, hope again that it gets bet at and called in all spots so I can raise for value. I don't like betting, because if the player right after has aces and raises, he hurts our odds.

hobbsmann 11-18-2005 11:08 AM

Re: A flop question
 
bbeeeettttt. The flop came all low cards and thus is likely to have missed limping hands held by CO and button. Since you have a probable clean overcard to your gutshot you have essentially 7-8 outs which is plently to warrent leading here. We can all agree that hero should lead an OESD 4 handed out of the blinds right? Why is this hand any different? Furthermore, you have enough equity in this pot that getting called is not horrible. Set yourself up to win this pot unimproved.

sean c 11-18-2005 11:23 AM

Re: A flop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
bbeeeettttt. The flop came all low cards and thus is likely to have missed limping hands held by CO and button. Since you have a probable clean overcard to your gutshot you have essentially 7-8 outs which is plently to warrent leading here. We can all agree that hero should lead an OESD 4 handed out of the blinds right? Why is this hand any different? Furthermore, you have enough equity in this pot that getting called is not horrible. Set yourself up to win this pot unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey hobbs nice post and we finally have a bet vote. I guess my only arguements are the pot is small and we are oop which could make this pot tough to win ui against what looks to be weak passive opponents.

hobbsmann 11-18-2005 11:28 AM

Re: A flop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bbeeeettttt. The flop came all low cards and thus is likely to have missed limping hands held by CO and button. Since you have a probable clean overcard to your gutshot you have essentially 7-8 outs which is plently to warrent leading here. We can all agree that hero should lead an OESD 4 handed out of the blinds right? Why is this hand any different? Furthermore, you have enough equity in this pot that getting called is not horrible. Set yourself up to win this pot unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey hobbs nice post and we finally have a bet vote. I guess my only arguements are the pot is small and we are oop which could make this pot tough to win ui against what looks to be weak passive opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
The issue here is going to depend strongly on reads. Are these the weak passives that fold a lot of flops? Peel a lot of flops only to fold turns? Always go to showdown? Against an unknown my default line is to bet, but if I think I have no FE then it is a clear check and peel.

sean c 11-18-2005 11:40 AM

Re: A flop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bbeeeettttt. The flop came all low cards and thus is likely to have missed limping hands held by CO and button. Since you have a probable clean overcard to your gutshot you have essentially 7-8 outs which is plently to warrent leading here. We can all agree that hero should lead an OESD 4 handed out of the blinds right? Why is this hand any different? Furthermore, you have enough equity in this pot that getting called is not horrible. Set yourself up to win this pot unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey hobbs nice post and we finally have a bet vote. I guess my only arguements are the pot is small and we are oop which could make this pot tough to win ui against what looks to be weak passive opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
The issue here is going to depend strongly on reads. Are these the weak passives that fold a lot of flops? Peel a lot of flops only to fold turns? Always go to showdown? Against an unknown my default line is to bet, but if I think I have no FE then it is a clear check and peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Hobbs this was from a hand this morning and i wasn't paying much attention to the table. I hate not giving good reads in my posts but i honestly didn't have any. The table as a whole was very weak passive, few pre flop raises and not many big pots or showdowns but i have no specific reads. I would guess i some FE here but on the flip side the board is pretty draw heavy with both SD and FD possibilities. So i was pretty torn as to what the correct move was when the action was on me. I will say i gave myself more outs on the fly than i probably should have if i had put some thought behind it.

imported_The Vibesman 11-18-2005 11:41 AM

Re: A flop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
bbeeeettttt. The flop came all low cards and thus is likely to have missed limping hands held by CO and button. Since you have a probable clean overcard to your gutshot you have essentially 7-8 outs which is plently to warrent leading here. We can all agree that hero should lead an OESD 4 handed out of the blinds right? Why is this hand any different? Furthermore, you have enough equity in this pot that getting called is not horrible. Set yourself up to win this pot unimproved.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey hobbs nice post and we finally have a bet vote. I guess my only arguements are the pot is small and we are oop which could make this pot tough to win ui against what looks to be weak passive opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]
The issue here is going to depend strongly on reads. Are these the weak passives that fold a lot of flops? Peel a lot of flops only to fold turns? Always go to showdown? Against an unknown my default line is to bet, but if I think I have no FE then it is a clear check and peel.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it's read dependent. We just have different defaults w/o reads. Since the pot is so small, I don't like commiting too much. If I bet out, I'm seeing the turn, and could end up having to call a raise on the flop and be heads up, I don't want that.

I also don't think this is quite as strong as an OESD (I gave it about 7 outs), mainly because an OESD is 8 rock-solid outs usually, and this hand even some of our straight outs are shaky.

11-18-2005 03:06 PM

Re: A flop question
 
grunch:

I check/call here. You got 4 outs to a straight one of which might not be good, maybe count 1 out to back door flush draw that's not the nuts, and possibly count 3 outs for your overs. That gives you at most 8 outs for odds of 4.8:1 with pot odds of 4:1.

If you had reads, you might be able to assume implied odds are in your favor. Bet out if you think you'll get folds/calls and reevaluate on the turn.

11-18-2005 04:34 PM

Re: A flop question
 
:grunch: I would check/call because you don't want it raised behind you and end up HU.

Aaron W. 11-18-2005 07:09 PM

Re: A flop question
 
[ QUOTE ]
Party poker 2/4. No reads.

Pre flop: folds to co who open limps, button calls, sb completes and i check in the bb with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Flop( 4 players 4sb): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
sb checks, i????

bet or check and why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm... It's similar to this flop bet (ignore the fact that I got raised) that I posted a while ago. Entity made some interesting comments, and I'm pretty sure betting is neutral EV.

In this case, however, I think I lean more towards a check because there are more villains in the pot. You would like to take this down immediately. You also might get called by a flush draw and STILL be chasing in the hand.


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