Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

A flop call is thin, but probably OK. I don't dislike a fold either, and just moving on. I probably call and re-evaluate (fold UI) on the turn.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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Sure you might be getting odds to try to spike a pair, but what if your opponent already has your pair beat?

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You're going to get consistently run over in blind steal situations if you think this way.

(That's not to say that folding is terrible on this one particular hand. Personally I would peel, but folding is a good option too. The main thing is that you cannot fear that villain is looking at KK just because he 3-bet. Many villians will 3-bet any pair, any A, or any suited paint. You have your full complement of 6 outs against most of villain's holdings.)

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

However I fold in this situation. JT simply isnt strong enough to play against a tight player who 3-bet and without a good read I dont think players at these stakes are well versed in the blind resteal attempt, which means he is easily ahead of you.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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Do you think villain have any reads on you. I cant tell you how many times I catch people trying to steal the blinds. They do it every freaking time the button and CO comes your way. Stealing the blinds is an excellent tool but you dont have to do it EVERY time. People will catch on and 3bet your crap hands and then a profitable play becomes an unprofitable on.

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I play pretty agressively, but I'm reasonably sure that this was the first blind steal that villan saw me attempt.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

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If you call this, you pretty much have to raise the turn on a blank. No other way you can win this hand besides forcing him off it.

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I don't agree with this either. You have enough outs to justify a peel. You'll frequently win this hand if you spike a J or a T.

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he is easily ahead of you

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Yeah you're behind here basically 100% of the time, but you're getting the odds to take one off. Whether you want to try to push villain off his hand on the turn is a completely different decision. That decision depends on how often villain is able to find the fold button. The decision to call the flop can be viewed as just an everyday pot-odds decision.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Let's say hero peels (this is what i would do because i'm a LAG, but clearly folding is good too.)

Turn (4.25 BB): J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets, Hero...?

Are we raising the turn for value/a free showdown? This lets villain get away from an inferior hand.

Are we just calling, playing a sort of WA/WB? We hope he will either continue to bet with a worse hand or that we will lose the minimum if he has us crushed. This line risks allowing an overcard to fall on the river and beat us.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

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How important are those stats when your looking at a sample size of <50 for the majority of your opponents?

Cant rely on HUD for everything.

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can't stress enough how important it is to add the following stats to your HUD:

Attempt to Steal Blinds %
Folded SB to Steal %
Folded BB to Steal %

These stats will help you to know what kind of range you're being 3-bet with as you'll get an idea how often this player will defend his blinds. It will also let you know who to raise light against and who's blinds to leave alone.

[/ QUOTE ]

How important are those stats when your looking at a sample size of <50 for the majority of your opponents?

Cant rely on HUD for everything.

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um at .5/1 these stats aren't very useful, since the chances to steal/defend are low, so you need a large hand sample on a player before they are worthwhile

but as you move up, the game becomes much more about stealing/defending, and these stats become very helpful, and you get a decent idea of how they react over a much smaller sample size

kiemo: as for the idea of blindraising the turn if you call the flop .. thats a bad idea, it might be a solid play if you spike a pair, and maybe bluff a couple cards .. but to do it on all turn cards is certainly spewing .. and shows you approach these situations incorrectly

Re: Blind steal goes bad
 

Grunch:

I'm folding here 'cuz

1. The pot is too small
2. The flop missed both of us & he bet (steal?) OOP
even though he is the BB, a single A, K, or Q all with an unpaired rag is favored over your JT off.
3. If you don't fold here, your likelihood of calling to the river is . . .?