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-   -   not so sure about this hand (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=380189)

Morrek 11-17-2005 10:06 AM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
If you really think he'll pay off max even if the draw hits, then ofcourse the right play is call/call/allin flop/turn/river but as previous poster said I doubt he is. So when do you want the money to go in? When it's a coinflip(flop) is +ev ofcourse, although maybe not by very much... But what if he pots it on a blank turn? you fold?
As played I doubt you'll get more than 1/2 pot more out of him, which is good considering what you paid but still, I wouldn't count on him giving you those odds on the turn everytime, hence a raise on the flop to either gain a freecard or get it allin right there would be better overall.

Oh and I really doubt he'll call allin on the flop with 88 99 and possibly TT, think of it from his donk perspective: you raised pre and called his reraise, then go allin after his overbet on the flop for another few hundred. That's quite alot of strength right there

Rockatansky 11-17-2005 10:16 AM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
If his hand range is AA-88, A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs, then you have 60% equity on the flop. If his hand range is AA-QQ, A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs, then you have 65% equity on the flop.

Ghazban 11-17-2005 10:24 AM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
If he'll go to the felt on the flop with an overpair but won't pay off a flush, I'd much rather put it in on the flop with 50% equity than call off chips hoping to hit one of my 5 payable outs (the sevens and eights).

yvesaint 11-17-2005 05:11 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
If he'll go to the felt on the flop with an overpair but won't pay off a flush, I'd much rather put it in on the flop with 50% equity than call off chips hoping to hit one of my 5 payable outs (the sevens and eights).

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, i guess pushing the flop is probably the best move here ...

anyways i bet 200 on the river and he called quickly with 99

im not sure if he would've called a push, in retrospect, i doubt it

Ed S. 11-17-2005 05:25 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
I'd be raising the flop here to a pot sized bet which would be around 130, so that would make your bet a total of 205 with making his call and raising it 130 more. If he calls then you naturally check the turn and the river is self explanitory.

Ed S.

yvesaint 11-17-2005 05:28 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be raising the flop here to a pot sized bet which would be around 130, so that would make your bet a total of 205 with making his call and raising it 130 more. If he calls then you naturally check the turn and the river is self explanitory.

Ed S.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot-sized raise would be to 275-ish

which leaves him like 300 on the turn with 600 in the pot, and id feel terrible checking behind and watching him push a blank river and give me 3:1 odds

i just feel that sort of thing happens to me ALL THE TIME. i raise the flop with a big draw, check behind turn, river is a blank, he pushes, i fold(??) or call(??)

whittiphil 11-17-2005 05:28 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
wait a while, then 2/3 the pot. I swear to god if he has an overpair he will call this more often than 1/2 the pot. It looks like a steal to people for some reason.

xorbie 11-17-2005 05:30 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
Make it $300 is my standard, bit lower maybe on this board.

lautzutao 11-17-2005 05:34 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
With only 50% equity and no fold equity, I don't see why pushing here is such a good idea. I'd like to be slightly better than even money when pushing my stack.

MTBlue 11-17-2005 05:35 PM

Re: not so sure about this hand
 
All-in


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