Re: not so sure about this hand
If you really think he'll pay off max even if the draw hits, then ofcourse the right play is call/call/allin flop/turn/river but as previous poster said I doubt he is. So when do you want the money to go in? When it's a coinflip(flop) is +ev ofcourse, although maybe not by very much... But what if he pots it on a blank turn? you fold?
As played I doubt you'll get more than 1/2 pot more out of him, which is good considering what you paid but still, I wouldn't count on him giving you those odds on the turn everytime, hence a raise on the flop to either gain a freecard or get it allin right there would be better overall. Oh and I really doubt he'll call allin on the flop with 88 99 and possibly TT, think of it from his donk perspective: you raised pre and called his reraise, then go allin after his overbet on the flop for another few hundred. That's quite alot of strength right there |
Re: not so sure about this hand
If his hand range is AA-88, A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs, then you have 60% equity on the flop. If his hand range is AA-QQ, A-Ks, A-Ko, A-Qs, then you have 65% equity on the flop.
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Re: not so sure about this hand
If he'll go to the felt on the flop with an overpair but won't pay off a flush, I'd much rather put it in on the flop with 50% equity than call off chips hoping to hit one of my 5 payable outs (the sevens and eights).
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Re: not so sure about this hand
[ QUOTE ]
If he'll go to the felt on the flop with an overpair but won't pay off a flush, I'd much rather put it in on the flop with 50% equity than call off chips hoping to hit one of my 5 payable outs (the sevens and eights). [/ QUOTE ] yea, i guess pushing the flop is probably the best move here ... anyways i bet 200 on the river and he called quickly with 99 im not sure if he would've called a push, in retrospect, i doubt it |
Re: not so sure about this hand
I'd be raising the flop here to a pot sized bet which would be around 130, so that would make your bet a total of 205 with making his call and raising it 130 more. If he calls then you naturally check the turn and the river is self explanitory.
Ed S. |
Re: not so sure about this hand
[ QUOTE ]
I'd be raising the flop here to a pot sized bet which would be around 130, so that would make your bet a total of 205 with making his call and raising it 130 more. If he calls then you naturally check the turn and the river is self explanitory. Ed S. [/ QUOTE ] pot-sized raise would be to 275-ish which leaves him like 300 on the turn with 600 in the pot, and id feel terrible checking behind and watching him push a blank river and give me 3:1 odds i just feel that sort of thing happens to me ALL THE TIME. i raise the flop with a big draw, check behind turn, river is a blank, he pushes, i fold(??) or call(??) |
Re: not so sure about this hand
wait a while, then 2/3 the pot. I swear to god if he has an overpair he will call this more often than 1/2 the pot. It looks like a steal to people for some reason.
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Re: not so sure about this hand
Make it $300 is my standard, bit lower maybe on this board.
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Re: not so sure about this hand
With only 50% equity and no fold equity, I don't see why pushing here is such a good idea. I'd like to be slightly better than even money when pushing my stack.
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Re: not so sure about this hand
All-in
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