Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
 

Just wanted to let you know, Everett, I found your analysis of your options on this hand really interesting. This is a situation I've had difficulty playing in the past, and I'm finding it really helpful to consider the options you've presented here. So thanks.

Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
 

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Two things make this hand so difficult for me: the history between you and villain and the coordinated board. He could literally have any two cards.

I think check/fold is the worst option. But also the smallish bet on the flop just smells like weakness, and I don't think is a much better option, especially if every other hand you've been in you've bet strongly. The sudden small bet from a TAG on a coordinated flop is a definite sign of weakness. I wouldn't believe a TAG was trying to trap on a coordinated board. If you had AJ or something like that, you'd be giving odds for straight and flush draws. So my read on you would be that you are hoping to take it down with a whiff or a weak draw.

If I were in Villain's position, I would read it as weak and make a raise, no matter what my holding. So, to me, the small bet is asking for a raise, and the raise can mean anything.

So, all that considered, I'd make a bet of no less than 800 on the flop. I think headsup, with a call from a guy you've been pushing around a bit doesn't mean much, and your second pair is good most of the time.

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I agree that the Hero lost this hand with his weak bet on the flop. The villian sensed it and outplayed him, IMO.

This is a hard hand to play, without a doubt. If you are going to bet this flop, you need to bet at least 50% of the pot--usually I bet about 60%, just to make it look strong. In other words, I would bet about 600 to 650 on this flop. I don't think you have to go up to 800.

Another way to play this is to check the flop and see what happens. If the villian bets strongly, you can let it go. If you sense weakness in the villian's bet, you can push all-in. The danger, of course, is in giving a free card or in folding the best hand.

If you had more chips to play with, I would go ahead and lead out and try to take down the pot. But given the amount of chips you have and the size of the pot, I think I'd rather check the flop and see what unfolds. I'm okay with giving this hand up if I have to. I don't want to lose half my chips on middle pair.

Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
 

In general I don't like soft betting this hand with 99++. If you are betting different amounts for different hands on this flop you are leaking information.

The small bet gives good implied odds to str8 and flush draws. If you had a jack you really wouldn't want to see the turn.

I think hero is 60:40 against villain's range of hands and there aren't the chips to figure out where you are at on this board.

I think you're better off in the long run just betting out and taking your opponents FE away rather than structure your betting to get away from the hand on an undistinguished stack in the middle of the tournament.

Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
 

I think you played it fine. It's a crappy spot.

I could see an argument for check/raising all in on the flop given that you've hit a piece of it and you don't mind it if he checks behind.

Actually, I think I like that line a lot better as it gives you money from bluffs and makes you the aggressor against some hands like A9, TJ, and TT that have you wrecked but have a tough call.

Re: Wait, am I bluffing or value betting?
 

Tricky one.....because he has seen you make some aggressive moves recently he may think you have AK, AQ and have done exactly what he expected, raised pre flop and made cont. bet on flop. You still have enough to fold and that wouldn't be a bad decision, i would be tempted to make a stop-go play here....flat call he 750 raise then move all in for your last 1250 whatever comes on the turn. If he has the J he has to fear A,K,Q, the club flush draw and a few others besides. If a 10 or 9 comes on the turn you have two pair and take the lead, if a Q or 8 comes you have an open end str draw and a diamond gives you a flush draw.
He may have a tough decision calling your all in on the turn if any of these arrive and of course he could have been bluffing on the flop and will throw away if you sneeze on the pot on fourth. It's an aggressive play but thats poker.