Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

Tell me if my Math is Wrong:

Lets assume that I will win 22% of the time on the river when he calls.

22(22,000) = 484000
78(9,200) = -717600

484000 - 717600 = -233600

Which means that I will lose -$2,336 everytime he calls.

x7200 + y(-2336) = EV

Let x=1, Let EV=1

7200/2336 = 3.08

Which means if he folds ~25% of the time or more then my play is +EV.

any mistakes?

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
any mistakes?

[/ QUOTE ]
nope

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

definitely agreeing w/ fsuplayer here. i dont see most players folding. so i guess if opponent is most players i dont like it.

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

this is far out of my expertise, but anyway...

he gets almost 3:1 on his call.
if he has a diamond draw+pair, he has 7 to 14 outs if behind, lets say 10(?) on average. if he is ahead against a semi bluff, he usualy has 29 or 30 good cards in the deck (32 or 33 if the rank of one card matches yours). that means there must be only a chance of about 10% that you are semi bluffing to make the call correct. that means he should definitely call with a pair + diamond draw imo.

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One problem with this push is he can have a pair + diamond draw now and be priced into calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you think he has the right price to call with a pair/flush draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't you think those 'most players' are right to consider, that hero might be bluffing (with a probability of at very least 10%)?

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

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no, but its close enough that most players arent folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

coupled with the fact that your read is that of a LOOSE CALLER.

Re: 50/100 NL hand vs Far
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think your math is wrong Kane.

let
x = % time he folds.
so (1-x) = times he calls
7200 in pot
9200 left in your stack
Assuming 22% equity when called

Then your push is EV neutral when

7200x + (1-x){(.22)(22000) - 9200} = 0

Solving for x you need a fold roughly 38% of time here

[/ QUOTE ]

*edit* sorry, my bad

after thinking it through, i agree completely.