Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

Heh, and everyone thought he was a genius after Week 3.
He was the OC for a good Vikings offense...bleh...so was Brian Billick.

Re: Atlanta vs. Miami -- Breaking My Promise
 

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Heh, and everyone thought he was a genius after Week 3.
He was the OC for a good Vikings offense...bleh...so was Brian Billick.

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What a terrible season for me. Painful. Bad Atlanta run D, good Miami run O, and they take zero advantage at key moments. Just awful.

Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Atlanta will win by 10 or 14.

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Can't be perfect.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Atlanta will win by 10 or 14.

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Can't be perfect.

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No I can't. I had this game pretty well pegged. I was surprised by 2 things however. First, I was surprised at how infrequently Vick had real time to throw the ball and how he had few really solid passing lanes. I expected him to have more time in the pocket. I think the reason for this is is that the Falcons OL, while obviously a good run blocking line, still struggles with pass protection; also, Miami blitzed A LOT more than I expected.

The second thing I was surprised by (and I'm sure others were as well) was just how well Vick played against such a strong pass rush. His accuracy was the obvious thing; but more important and impressive was his decisionmaking. He really felt and saw the blitz coming and made almost every correct decision. This was a big step for him.

This game would have been a blowout if it weren't for Griffith's and Rossum's fumbles. The Falcons simply are a far superior team right now. However, as Syg has pointed out, their run defense is still their biggest weakness.

I expect the Falcons to be favored by about 9 or 10 against Green Bay. My early feeling is that I won't see a lot of value either way in this game. but that could change after I analyze Green Bay some more and determine how healthy Atlanta cam out of this game. One thing that bodes well for the Falcons for this game is that Carolina proved today that they will tough to stay with in the South.

Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

Yeah, Miami did blitz a ton - I don't understand why teams do that vs. Vick - especially up the middle. And the game shouldn't have been that close - Finneran also dropped an easy TD.
Do the refs have to coddle Vick that much though? Some of those personal foul calls were a joke.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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That is not fair. I feel awful and my bankroll is in terrible shape.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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Edit: PS. By the way, had a great time in Tunica. I killed the 20/40 game there, which is phenomenally juicy. It makes up for my brutal day at the book (thanks Syg! [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img])

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That is not fair. I feel awful and my bankroll is in terrible shape.

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The smily face said "Just kidding...I'm not blaming you." My other favorite "pickers" also had miserable days. it was just ugly all around.

Hang in there Syg. I still have faith in your system.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

I fear, but hope against, a titanic correction by favorites this year.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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I fear, but hope against, a titanic correction by favorites this year.

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There has to be some sort of correlation to favorites success early in the year and failures later in the year. The public has to be feeling REAL good about sticking with the favorite right now - have to think this will push the lines even further in the right direction.

Then again, maybe it's time to jump ship and start playing all the favorites because they *CANT* lose.

Re: Pretty good prediction, except for this
 

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The public has to be feeling REAL good about sticking with the favorite right now - have to think this will push the lines even further in the right direction.

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I quite honestly thought that would be starting this week, Doug. Alas, no.