Re: The AK turn spot
 

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You don't think the utg raiser puts you on a fairly narrow range of hands at this point and can make a pretty good guess as to whether AJ or worse is good? Obviously it's totally dependent on you and your opponent so I couldn't know.

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Whether or not UTGs AJ will call or not isn't that big of a deal. I mean, if they fold, you aren't out anything.

However, the thing is, not too many people will value bet that AK on the river. As such, many UTGs will call with any ace high, thinking "bah, people don't value bet AK, so he must not be able to beat Ace High, and wants me to fold...so they call with AJ thinking maybe just maybe you have JTs or KQ or some such.

Of course, the problem is more people are checkraising rivers now with 66 than they were 8 months ago. And, in another year, betting AK on the river will be dumb.

Josh

Re: The AK turn spot
 

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I think the expert play with say 66 VS me there is to CR the river, but they rarely do it.

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I'm struggling to understand how that would be the "expert" play. Unless the villian thinks you are a complete doofus, or he knows that you think that he's a complete doofus, the 2nd bet with a hand like 66 on that river has no positive expectation. No better hand folds and now worse hand calls. Am I missing something?

lf

Re: The AK turn spot
 

you seem to have said it all, nice analysis

Re: The AK turn spot
 

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I think the expert play with say 66 VS me there is to CR the river, but they rarely do it.


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you would pay off?

Re: The AK turn spot
 

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I think the expert play with say 66 VS me there is to CR the river, but they rarely do it.

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I'm struggling to understand how that would be the "expert" play. Unless the villian thinks you are a complete doofus, or he knows that you think that he's a complete doofus, the 2nd bet with a hand like 66 on that river has no positive expectation. No better hand folds and now worse hand calls. Am I missing something?

lf

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I think that the checkraise on the river gets paid off a lot more than you think. First, he doesnt really risk anything because the 3 bettor who just checked behind the turn with position pretty much never has a pair there. Of course he might miss a bet when its gets checked behind, but a lot of aggro players wont check that river. (I pretty much never would agaist that unknown) Also, I think the three bettor will pay off that checkraise from time to time only because he is trying to understand how a guy can check call the flop, check the turn and river, and now all of a sudden he can raise. It gets paid off because the 3 bettor knows the other guy doesnt think he has a pair, so it might give him a reason to do it with something like KQ or whatever.

I think it is particularly true in higher stakes online games where basically nobody lays down anything on the river because there are so many moves being made. Im not sure it would have +EV in a 10 handed 15-30 game. Notice that I didnt always say I thought it was the expert play, just that it was VS me.

results
 

I won.

Re: results
 

What did he have?

Re: The AK turn spot
 

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I think the expert play with say 66 VS me there is to CR the river, but they rarely do it.


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you would pay off?

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I don't wanna speak for steve, but I think he will, then kick himself for it.

I think that's the default play there, anyways.

Actually, he may not kick himself there for it. See, for the same reason 66 should checkraise the river, it can be argued that the smallest non-set pocket pair should checkraise the river.

Then, it can be argued that the next smallest hand is AK, so that too should checkraise. And so he should call.

I've now realized that I'm talking mostly to myself. As I told Steve over IM, this entire hand is all a "level of thinking" problem, and as such is almost 100% situational. I love live poker.

Josh blah blah W.

Re: results
 

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What did he have?

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A10

Re: The AK turn spot
 

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I think the expert play with say 66 VS me there is to CR the river, but they rarely do it.


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you would pay off?

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I mean its all player depandant obv, but in that spot I would have paid off, and I usually would in similar spots without player information. The thing is that once I check the turn he pretty much knows I dont have a pair. So at that point if I decide to put the bet on the river, and he doesnt feel like giving me the pot, but doesnt have a hand to showdown with, he might be tempted to checkraise bluff. its just such a screw play I would probably pay it off, at least some of the time. Of course there are players that I would fold to really fast too, so its tough to say.

I dont think checkraising the river with a small pair in that spot would be right as a default, but agaist somebody who has tight 3 betting standards after a player in EP raises, and is pretty aggro on the river, I really like it. I think I fit both criteria so I would like it VS me. It would also depend a lot on what he thinks that I think of him. If he knows I think he is a tight ass then its defintely not worth it since Im never calling the river bet. But with a loose aggro image I love it, because Im calling everytime.

I could have just quoted Josh's post, but Im bored and felt like writing.