Re: TT capped pot
 

I like it only if you go for a free showdown.

Re: TT capped pot
 

You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

Re: TT capped pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also thought about this myself. However, wouldn't it be worth the raise to knock CO off some overcards?

Re: TT capped pot
 

I agree that I don't want to be 3bet, but if I'm choosing to continue in this large pot, I want the guy behind me to fold his QQ or JJ. When he checks that flop after capping, it's obvious he has QQ, JJ, or KK. Since the K dropped, KK just got 1/3 as likely. Sure, he might fold behind us, but I don't want to give him an excuse to call.

Re: TT capped pot
 

NH - fairly easy river check. Because you raised the turn he's very unlikely to call with A high and you're behind the >50% of his range of PP hands.

Re: TT capped pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
You should have probably bet this flop maybe.

When your bet into on the turn I just call down, if he is bluffing you don't want him to stop, if he isn't and you are behind in some way you don't want to give him an opportunity to 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Being 3-bet really isn't a concern, because if it happens, no matter who does it, I'm surrendering.

I think raising is better than calling because I don't want the CO getting 8:1 on what could easily be a 6 outer. I would much rather he fold, but if he's going to call I would rather he did it getting 4:1 instead of 8:1.

Re: TT capped pot
 

When villain calls your turn raise, he is probably going to see a showdown. This means he probably has AK, KQ, AA - 99. That hand range sucks to be up against. You might get him to fold QQ - 99...

AA (6)
AK (8)
KQ (8)
QQ (6)
JJ (6)
TT (1)
99 (6)

19/41 = 46% of the time he has a hand he might fold. I'm gonna guess and say that you'll get him to fold one of those hands (if he has one) 15% of the time.

0.46 * 0.15 = 0.069

You need this to work 1/11 = 0.09 to profit. It looks like a river bet isn't profitable here. I'd check behind and hope you're up against 99.

Re: TT capped pot
 

I can't say for sure, but it wouldn't surprise me if 77 and 88 were in there too.

Re: TT capped pot
 

[ QUOTE ]
When villain calls your turn raise, he is probably going to see a showdown. This means he probably has AK, KQ, AA - 99. That hand range sucks to be up against. You might get him to fold QQ - 99...

AA (6)
AK (8)
KQ (8)
QQ (6)
JJ (6)
TT (1)
99 (6)

19/41 = 46% of the time he has a hand he might fold. I'm gonna guess and say that you'll get him to fold one of those hands (if he has one) 15% of the time.

0.46 * 0.15 = 0.069

You need this to work 1/11 = 0.09 to profit. It looks like a river bet isn't profitable here. I'd check behind and hope you're up against 99.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we want him to fold 99?

Can you re-do your calculations but omit 99 and TT I am really curious?

Re: TT capped pot
 

I would bet the flop, then call a raise and fold the turn UI. Given your flop check, the turn raise is good, and you must check the river.