Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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CHECK 6th!!

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Why? You have enough pot equity combined with fold equity to keep pushing in this situation.

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Beta, his opponent committed to calling once he called 5th. How often do you see people fold 6th. Calling is very often the correct play. He has no fold equity. The only way jeff's opponent folds sixth is if jeff catches something scary. His opponent very well could have put him on the hand Jeff has-- a 4 flush. Semi-bluffing people who are gonna call anyway is foolish.

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Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

nevermind about my 4th street dribble. I ran some sims. I'm surprised the 4 flush is as far ahead (on 4th) as it is

anywhere from 56-44 to 60-40 depending on holding of opponent.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

"Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working. "

Well, it works two ways tho.. He's also made the pot bigger. Which means his opponent is more likely to call. Why not check, and bluff like 5% of the time on the river?

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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"Betting 6th increase the chances of a river bluff working. "

Well, it works two ways tho.. He's also made the pot bigger. Which means his opponent is more likely to call. Why not check, and bluff like 5% of the time on the river?

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Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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CHECK 6th!!

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The fish is right. Once your opponent calls on fifth the party is over, Jeff. Time to check-call sixth. On the river most soild players are paying off I would assume. Your lines fine if for some strange reason you can envision your opponent being capable of mucking any pair here, I just would usually expect to be called. This is also "probable steal vs. bring-in" making it more likley in my mind that your opponent will look you up.

Mike Emery

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

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Since you inherently believe it.. never mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Even if you're correct about that fact, my point still holds weight, and takes away from the effectiveness of it. I still hold that semibluffing someone who is going to call is not +EV. Do you agree with that?

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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Oh, I inherently believe this. I see checking 6th as creating doubt and increasing the likelyhood of a call. Lets face it, if you just Kings you'd keep betting right.

I could be wrong, but I believe it

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Since you inherently believe it.. never mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Even if you're correct about that fact, my point still holds weight, and takes away from the effectiveness of it. I still hold that semibluffing someone who is going to call is not +EV. Do you agree with that?

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Yes, I agree.

I think the availible lines are ::
bet 6th, bet 7th regardless
check/call 6th, check/fold 7th (if you brick)

I like the bottom line best in this situation. But since Jeff bet 6th, I think he should bet 7th.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

Question for you math guys. I have 9 outs to the flush here and six pair outs which will be good if he doesn't catch (most likely). So, what can we say? 12 outs total? What percentage of the time would he have to fold sixth (or seventh) to make the way I played the last two streets of this hand profitable based on how many outs you think I have.

Also, I'm beginning to believe I should have check-called sixth, check-folded fifth. So I'm just curious.

Jeff

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

You actually have 7 outs to the flush. 4 to a high pair (3 Ks and 1 A).

So 11 outs, 40 unknown cards. You are improving to win (assume you win with an A or K) a little over 25% of the time.

So the most putting money in on 6th can cost you is ~75% of a bet. Which is $45.

-If he'd check behind 100% of the time you lose $45 by betting out (Assuming he's calling)
-If he'd call a bet, and bet if checked to you cost yourself nothing.
-If he'll fold a "real" hand to your bet you'll profit roughly 75% of the pot (the other 25% of the time you'd win it outright)

So if there's a 13% (or more) chance he'll fold on 6th, the bet makes money.

And I think he's got to fold 15% of the time to make a river bluff neutral EV.

Re: Dear, Would You Save Me The Last Bet?
 

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nevermind about my 4th street dribble. I ran some sims. I'm surprised the 4 flush is as far ahead (on 4th) as it is

anywhere from 56-44 to 60-40 depending on holding of opponent.

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Why are you suprised...I told you this last Friday!