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- Small Stakes Hold'em (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=15)

- - Turn Raise (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=362071)

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Then there's the semi-bluff angle as well.

...

2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.

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Not much of a semi-bluff if he'll almost never fold. In order for a semi-bluff to be good here, (assuming he'll never 3-bet and that he is currently ahead) he needs to fold about 20% of the time right now. Given your desciption, I don't think he'll ever fold right here with a better hand. Plus, worse hands have 4 outs or fewer.

There may be a free showdown play here (I am a little skeptical, but I am open to being convinced.) But as a semi-bluff I think this is wrong.

You say yourself that he will rarely fold a pair so what's the point?

A free showdown is no good for you. You would rather have him bet the river, since your hand is very well hidden and you can get multiple bets in when you hit.

[ QUOTE ]
You say yourself that he will rarely fold a pair so what's the point?

A free showdown is no good for you. You would rather have him bet the river, since your hand is very well hidden and you can get multiple bets in when you hit.

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Thanks for the confirmation.

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W.D. was talking about turn raises yesterday, so I wanted to start looking for hands to post. This was one I thought might be decent to discuss.

Players behind me are tight.

Villain is quite loose....somewhere in the 40s. He's semi-aggressive. That's all I've really noticed so far.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises

What do you think?

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I would like it a lot better with an overcard on the turn. If he is going to fold up he needs something to put you on. Many of these guys will stubbornly cling to an AK read, so if the turn were some kind of face card, I think you would have a better chance of this working.

Also having a better handle on the player type. I am not so excited about doing this against "Donk types". Unless he is a LAG pre-flop with normal stats after the flop (There are quite a few of these guy at 5/10 I imagine the same at 10/20), for instance I like to look at WTSD/W$SD, aggression, and folding by street.

So in this situation, I am not wild about the play. I want a couple other factors to be in my corner when I do this. Here I am not wild about the board texture as far as inducing a fold, the player type seems like this would be ineffective, and as far as being ahead.. yeah maybe we are..maybe were not.

I like calling twice unimproved more than raising here.

I think the turn raise is OK but it's -EV against this player. I don't know how he plays but I noticed that most players from 5/10 and 10/20 tends to call pretty loose on the flop, meaning they're willing to call down with second pair majority of the time when it's heads up. The only players who you can really bluff against are someone who's showing quality hands at showdowns(tight, thinking players).

I'm not too crazy about the turn raise either because I don't see him folding anything here. It's not really a semi-bluff if he's not willing to fold. He raised you on the flop meaning he probably hit something worth raising. If the turn card was a overcard diamond then a semi-bluff raise would work better. If the pot has less than 5BBs on the turn instead of raising I'll go ahead and just call and hope that I hit my draw. No point of protecting a hand with such a small pot against a loose player.

If he calls(which he will) I would go ahead and take the free showdown. It's clear once he calls the turn raise that he has a hand which he's willing to call to the river.

Tight table? Looks like a pf steal-raise from the hijack.

Will this guy consider this a steal-raise? Will he c/r a steal-raise with air? If so and you are ahead the turn raise shuts him down.

Will he c/r with a draw like JT or T7? If so he is calling the raise and won't pay off your hand if he misses and you hit.

Seems most likely his c/r is an 8 or 9 and he is going to S/D and may or may not 3-bet you depending on how LAGgy he is.

FE= Fold% * PotSize, and both factors seem small in this case.

The turn card made your draw very strong. 15 outs to beat a pair makes you only a 2:1 dog, and if you flat call the turn does he know where he stands when you hit your draw? Seems like you get at least 1 BB on the end like 90% of the time, and sometimes 2 bets. Any future bets you lose due to the turn raise offset the FoldEquity you gain.

On the plus side, if he IS laggy and 3-bets... your draw is plenty strong to continue and if you can hit your monster and pop him on the end that will help your metagame. Making this move with a weak draw and folding to a 3-bet could hurt your metagame. I think that's a smaller consideration.

My take is that the marginal showdown value of your A-high, strength of your draw, small pot size, and likelyhood he has a pair and won't laydown make a better case for calling instead of raising.

Interesting hand.

I don't like it b/c I don't think villan is folding and I don't think a free showdown does us any good.