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-   -   Weak - Tight? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=361796)

Fat Nicky 10-20-2005 04:43 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
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I fold preflop.

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yuck.

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Why yuck?? We are facing a raise and a re-raise from unknowns, and we will be out of positiom for the rest of the hand with crappy relative position to the pre-flop 3-bettor.

oxymoron 10-20-2005 04:45 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
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I fold preflop.

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yuck.

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You just sat down and have no reads so why play this hand against a three bet? I might play this with reads and I would more than likely cap it if I decide to play to isolate a loose raiser. But when I just sit down at a table I want to get some reads and get a feel for the table before I make these plays.

Edit: spelling...

toss 10-20-2005 04:48 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
PF we're getting 3.5:1 - 4.5:1. 3:1 is the worst probable scenario should MP2 cap. Its 8.5:1 to flop a set. Don't you think we'll make up that many bets should we flop a set or have our 99 hold up enough times?

10-20-2005 04:49 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
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I'm check-raising the flop, leading the turn, and folding to a raise.

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I have the same plan, but maybe this exposes me to a call-down from an overpair or overcards. In this 3-handed pot, a bet from the 3-bettor is very likely, so I think I c/r will work. I want to c/r to put pressure on MP2's overcards. If MP3 3-bets, I call and c/f the turn (because it's a K), expecting a bigger pair or AK, otherwise I lead the lead and fold to raise.

Solid_p 10-20-2005 04:55 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
I would consider folding this preflop. Reads could change this.

On the flop, a check raise is far better than leading. You will be facing mp2 with 2 bets and you will define your hand better against mp3. Leading this flop, you will be raised plenty by overcards. Turn card is bad, so your fold looks good.

SeaEagle 10-20-2005 05:04 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
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PF we're getting 3.5:1 - 4.5:1. 3:1 is the worst probable scenario should MP2 cap. Its 8.5:1 to flop a set. Don't you think we'll make up that many bets should we flop a set or have our 99 hold up enough times?

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Let's say you're just playing for set value. Your odds of making a set and winning are generally estimated to be about 10-1. So you need to earn 14sbs to play for set value. There are already 7 in the pot, so you need to make 3.5BBs the rest of the hand to break even on set value. You'll probably make 3.5BBs on this hand.

If the pot gets capped, you need to make 7BBs postflop. 7BBs is a lot and I doubt you'll get that in a 3-way hand.

I'm also assuming that you break even post flop if you don't make a set. I may be overestimating because 99 UI is really hard to play OOP here, and I'd be surprised if most players didn't actually cost themselves chips post flop.

So, if you assume that the pot gets capped PF about 1/3 of the time, you're going to have to average a little over 4.5BBs in post flop profit when you win to make calling +EV. 4.5BBs is quite a bit but, overall, I'd say the EV difference between folding and calling is just about 0.

matt hooley 10-20-2005 05:09 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
easy fold to flop action of Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises?

toss 10-20-2005 05:09 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
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easy fold to flop action of Hero checks, MP2 bets, MP3 raises?

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Yes.

ZenMusician 10-20-2005 05:19 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
CC a pf 3-bet + not CR this flop + checking this turn = teh suck

-ZEN

detruncate 10-20-2005 07:17 PM

Re: Weak - Tight?
 
I'd check the flop and then c/r if MP3 led. I think it's worth putting in another couple bets in a pot this size with an overpair. MP3 might still be on a lot of things, especially given that he's unknown, and we'd probably like MP2 to fold most of the time. I call/fold UI if 3-bet.

I just fold if MP2 leads and MP3 raises after we check the flop.

The way you played it I have no problem with the fold. Unless Villain is a total LAG we're very unlikely to be ahead at this point.


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