Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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calling on the turn with the same draw after the villain three-bets your raise on the flop and leads the turn.

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The turn call is easy. You have to be very good or mediocre to make it, but it's very correct.

Krishan

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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On the flop, I was hoping I could get a free turn from overs....not so.

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Something you want to consider is the amount of times your gutshot is your only good card. Often your A is tainted pretty badly, so you're raising the flop hoping to get one of something like 6-7 turn cards. Not worth it when you consider the chances of being 3bet, as you were.

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

Show me the math. No way A-high unimproved is good against this three-bettor, and no way his ace outs are clean. This is an easy fold.

EDIT: "Villain seems pretty decent. something like 22/14/2.8 over 100 hands"

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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Well, you're getting 7.5-1 to call the turn, but the action seems to indicate you're against a big pair or the ace is no good. I think there is zero chance you're ahead here. If the ace was good, you have 7 outs, so let's say it's good 50-50. So that gives you 5.5 outs at 7.5-1. I lean towards folding to the turn bet, but that's me.

Jeff

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Jeff:

Given the way the hand played out, I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight making the implied odds even better.

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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Show me the math. No way A-high unimproved is good against this three-bettor, and no way his ace outs are clean. This is an easy fold.

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How many outs does he have? How big is the pot? If you do the work, you see that it's actually not close.

Krishan

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

Anyone who says preflop is wrong is too tight.

This should be an easy raise from this position.

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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Well, you're getting 7.5-1 to call the turn, but the action seems to indicate you're against a big pair or the ace is no good. I think there is zero chance you're ahead here. If the ace was good, you have 7 outs, so let's say it's good 50-50. So that gives you 5.5 outs at 7.5-1. I lean towards folding to the turn bet, but that's me.

Jeff

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Jeff:

Given the way the hand played out, I would think villain would have to have exactly AA to make this turn call -EV. The fact that I have an Ace compared to all the combos of other overpairs he can have, I think make this really close to 7 outs. I'm also surely going to get 2 more if I hit my straight making the implied odds even better.

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Perfect. Very nice.

Krishan - 89

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

I agree...partially. I'd usually fold this pf, but against the right people I'd raise. I'd just call the flop. I would also call the turn here.

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

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On the flop, I was hoping I could get a free turn from overs....not so.

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Something you want to consider is the amount of times your gutshot is your only good card. Often your A is tainted pretty badly, so you're raising the flop hoping to get one of something like 6-7 turn cards. Not worth it when you consider the chances of being 3bet, as you were.

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I agree. That wasn't well thought out at the time.

Had I played this properly on the flop, I could have folded the turn.

Re: Was Villain Right?
 

7.5BB on the turn. He has 4 outs to the str8, and 1.5 outs to the ace. Now consider the reverse implied from the club redraw on 4th street, or the possibility that he will hit his ace but be drawing dead to a set, and it's a fold.