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- - Queens. (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=349432)

[ QUOTE ]
It's funny, but this is just about the exact line I lost my stack with last night holding AA on a 478r flop. A preflop caller in EP bet into me for 1/2 the pot. I raised a decent, but less than pot-sized raise, then he called and proceeded to bet a little less than half the pot into me when the turn was a brick.

In hindsight, I raised his flop bet for information (and to make draws pay to chase), and his flat call/bet should have been enough information for me to fold on the turn when he kept betting. I think this is a line that reeks of strength. Instead of folding, however, I called the turn bet. Then the pot was so damn big that his 1/4 pot bet on the river (that put me all in by that point) was a crying call. I lost to a flopped straight. But it could have just as easily have been a set. He played it well, I didn't.

I wish I could fold in this spot. But last night, I certainly wasn't good enough to actually do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that's not really the same because your flop had some straight potential. 58T doesn't really have the same potential. Given what we're given, I'd put the guy on AT as well. I guess a set is possible, but why bet the turn with the boat if you could check-call or check-raise and get more money in the pot? Or make a small bet. He's showing all the signs of 2pr, unless he called the pf raise with T5 or 85.

One other scenario, is that he called with A5 pf and now you're far behind. Like someone else said, overplaying overpairs is a problem of mine, too.

[ QUOTE ]
Folds.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why?

Folding might seem a little weak to some, but you're really only beating 2 hands, AT and JJ. And you lose to a large chunk of hands. I fold this unless hes a player who overplays top pair way too often, but even then this isn't the best spot to stack him.

These hands suck at these levels because villain is at least as likely to have AT or JJ as a set if not more so. I get stacked on this one but I also will stack the villain with the lesser holdings and I stack villain when I hit my set so calling all of them wins in the long run even though the losses bug me for days.

I'm not sure if this is a leak or if I decided that paying off a set is the cost I have to absorb in exchange for not folding the winning hand the rest of the time.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure if this is a leak or if I decided that paying off a set is the cost I have to absorb in exchange for not folding the winning hand the rest of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push the turn. I can honestly say that I've unstacked TPTK/2pr combinations a lot more often in this spot than lost to sets and such. At these levels especially, a lot of these guys STILL think you have AK/AQ... and what's even more amazing, a lot of times they're right.

Kirk

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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed)

MP2 ($21.50)
Hero ($51.55)
Button ($129.80)
SB ($30.25)
BB ($65)
UTG ($53.60)
UTG+1 ($88.60)
MP1 ($19.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $2.

Flop: ($5.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $2, Hero raises to $6.5, UTG+1 calls $4.50.

Turn: ($18.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $11.5, Hero calls $11.50.

River: ($41.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $48.5, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $90.25

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 doesn't show.
Outcome: UTG+1 wins $90.25. 
-----

[ QUOTE ]
Why?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, lets run through the hand.

Skeme has posted no read so we shall assume that we have no read. UTG+1 limp-calls, this is very standard for a pocket pair, I cannot assume UTG+1 has much else because I haven't seen him get out of line or play monsters passively etc, he could, however, for arguements sake have some sort of SC.

On the flop UTG+1 bets weak, god knows why, maybe he thinks his pair is still good? maybe he completely missed and wants to take the pot.. maybe he hit a part of the board and wants to build the pot.

So we raise, QQ is still likely to be favourite here, villain could have anything from a draw to a set. He calls.

The turn is a not so pleasant 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that pairs the board, UTG+1 leads for 2/3 pot, now it makes absolutely no sense here to lead here with a draw so I think we can eliminate any sort of flush / straight draw (note that villain in this hand may have ended up having a draw at this point, the fact is we cannot assume that he does).

Ok so hes lead into us for 2/3 pot on a paired board after we raised the flop, hes telling us hes strong, lets try to establish a hand range for villain;

We are behind:

TT, 88, 5x

We are ahead of:

Tx, 8x, JJ.

Now we try to make sense out of which hands are more likely to fit this line, I think out of all the hands we are ahead of, JJ makes the most sense, Tx is only likely if villain is bad or if hes testing us with AT, 8x if hes awful (where x does not give villain two pair or a house).

Lets look at the hands we are behind, yes thats right.. you guessed it, they make a lot of sense. 5x is debatable, and more unlikely than the other two, but within reason. 88 and TT make a lot of sense because thats exactly how they should be played pre-flop, and hes shown a lot of strength post-flop. So thinking the hand through we are able to deduce that we are going to be behind more times than we are infront.

Despite what I have just said, thats assume for one second that we are behind 50% and infront 50% of the time, do we see villain putting more money in this pot with JJ for instance? Maybe, but most of the time this guy will close up shop if you call this turn or raise. Does he put more money in with hands we are behind? Yes we losing more money on the river if we decide to call the turn.

Line looks like pocket pair to me, probably being over paranoid. I second guess myself in this spot a lot because it's gonna be AT somewhat often too with that line, but I doubt it's JJ as in my experience most players raise that in this game. Could the guy really have A8???

What were your feelings on his hand range during the hand?

IMO you called the turn bet your commiting yourself for the river, make the crying call

I don't understand just calling the turn. you have an overpair with no redraw on a paired board. If you really think the villain pots a flush draw or straight draw here then you must push. I don't understand your line very well I guess. You are either paying off a boat or letting someone with a big draw control the pot. Both of these things are bad. Raise or fold the turn.