Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

is this poll/thread serious?

are we really suggesting that the best team doesn't win?

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

You guys must realize theres a difference between most talent and best team, most talent doesnt always win, best team does.
The team with the most talent has the best chance to have the best team of course but it doesnt always work out that way.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

My contention is more of sample size. In 2001, the mariners dominated the league. In fact, I believe (just going from memory here), they had a winning record vs. every team in the league. Now, they got beat in the playoffs 4-1 or 4-2 to NYY.

So, even though Seattle was clearly the better team (better record, better head-to-head record, better record vs. common opposition, etc), they lost in the playoffs. The M's were the best team, and had the most talent.

But they lost in the playoffs because of sample size. Like the thread that suggests "winning by 2" in the world series...a larger sample in the playoffs would do better to determine the actual 'best team'. however, the publics desire for crowning a champion within a set timeframe dictates a playoff format like we currently have.

And that format means that often the best team is not crowned the champion.

Josh

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My contention is more of sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

(Warning: gross oversimplification ahead)

For the sake of argument, say we pick one team at the end of the regular season and decide it's "best". If that team has a set probability of winning each of its playoff games, that probability has to be about 68% before that team's going to win the WS 60% of the time. (They'd win each individual series 85% of the time.) A team that's a 55/45 favorite is 61% to win each series, and will win the WS around 22% of the time. A 60/40 favorite is 71% to win each series, and will win the WS 36% of the time. 75/25 gives you 93% and 80%, and 80/20 gives you 97% and 90%.

So it seems pretty clear to me that if we're going to answer anything but <60% in this poll, we're going to have to define "best" in large part based on postseason success. And the sample size for that sucks.

The numbers are from the binomial distribution calculator here.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

[ QUOTE ]
is this poll/thread serious?

are we really suggesting that the best team doesn't win?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, we're suggesting that the best team doesn't win. Why doesn't the best team go 162-0 this year? Because they occasionally lose games. Why did the Yankees go 4-100 against the Devil Rays this year. If you say because TB was the better team I'm going to pimpslap you.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, outside of the oversaturated BoSox/Yankee corridor, most of the country has moved on to the superior sport and league by now, so the number of people caring is as low as ever.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. Tons more people are still watching baseball than watch NHL hockey.

How do you define "best"? Total aggregate of talent? Won-loss record over a ton of games?

I guess I've always taken it as a given that an inferior team could steal a series, if they were hot while the better team wasn't...but couldn't one make an argument that the true test of a teams' worth is how it performs against the best when the chips are down, not how it beats up the weak sisters of the league during games in June/July?

I don't know if I'd make the argument, just throwing it out there. Doesn't seem like a big deal to me. In Hockey, inferior teams steal series all the time due to one hot goaltender. Makes it interesting.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

I favor the Jamesian theory that the best teams get to the playoffs by consistent success over the course of the regular season, but the playoffs are, in essence, a crapshoot. The team that played the best during those particular games and got the luckiest will win.

It's somewhat comparable to poker tournament -- you see the best players consistently making it deep into the money, but the player that wins it all is almost always the one who had the luckiest run at just the right time. The turn of a card, and you have a completely different winner. Likewise in sports.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

why do you assume that the best team over the past 6 months is the best team today? We all realize rosters change, older players may tire, younger players get experience, guys get hurt or get healthy, chemistry may fester or grow. Schedules are unbalanced. One team may have a star or 2 out when team A plays them, while team B plays them when the stars are healthy. Teams may be hot or cold. The white sox have the best record, but many would argue the indians are probably the better team right now as evidenced by their play over the second half. The yankees are clearly better than they were in may when they dug themselves into a hole- giambi is worlds better; small and chacon weren't on the roster. regular season success has a lot to do with day-in and day-out mental toughness, battling a grind. playoff baseball is the opposite.

We also know that regular season baseball and the playoffs aren't, in some respects, really the same game. Doesn't regular season baseball place a premium on things that are less significant in the playoffs, and vice versa? A bullpen, top to bottom, is more important over the course of a season than in a short postseason series. A dominant closer and setup guy, while always important, may be moreso in the playoffs.

A couple of dominant starting pitchers, ala the 2001 d'backs, while always important, has a much more pronounced effect in a playoff series than over the course of a regular season, where depth through all 5 starters may be more significant. Bench depth is less important in a playoff series, especially in american league parks. Managing (and over managing), given the time to prepare for a playoff series could be more significant.

There are more days off than during the regular season, as well as day/days off leading into the playoffs, so mental and physcial stamina is perhaps less important in the playoffs while the ability to psych oneself up for the immediate momment is mroe important in the playoffs (remeber jose lima and all those smelling salt capsules v. the cards last year).

Who wins today isn't independent of who won yesterday, and this may be magnified in a short series as momemtum, pressure and emotions matter more in a short playoff series, given the media focus and significant of the event etc. The team with the better regular season record often bears the brunt of the pressure. Can't experience, expecially playoff experience, have an effect too. But variance is also a factor.

Since divisional play began in 1969, the eight teams that have won the World Series after posting the best regular-season record are the 1970 Orioles, 1975-76 Reds, 1978 Yankees, 1984 Tigers, 1986 Mets, 1989 Athletics, and 1998 Yankees.

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In a 7 game series the best team always wins. Thats quoted by every former baseball and basketball player in history. Of course injuries can screw it up,

[/ QUOTE ]

So if there's a game 7, the best team will always win it? Why not just play game 7 first?

Re: Do the Playoffs determine the best team?
 

First, I agree that the best team doesn't always win. However, you seem to have a definition of "best" that equates to the entire season. I don't consider that definition to be that broad.