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-   -   I know why I've run like crap this month... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=347342)

TheMetetron 09-30-2005 12:43 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
[ QUOTE ]
another thing i have come to realize is that i seem to play tons better when i am not trying to have the right stats or play a certain style. i play well when i just analyze each situation and make my decision based on sound poker play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is important and something we agree on. Even if our play when we do this is very different.

TheMetetron 09-30-2005 12:46 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
[ QUOTE ]
Come on, dude.

[ QUOTE ]
Wanna know what I've learned?

12k hands means absolutely nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

But 20.5K hands of "running bad" means something about your game? ("I know why I've run like crap this month")

[/ QUOTE ]

No, and I'm not discounting that you are winning. But don't try to peg a winrate after 13k hands, it's just bad news. Wanna know my winrate after 13k hands at $10/20? 6.15 BB/100. That's all I was trying to say.

I do think me running breakeven after 20k hands is more than just bad luck though. And I'm saying what I've done to my play that I think is part of this break even stretch.

Nothing more.

Catt 09-30-2005 12:47 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
To be clear about what I'm saying: Your bad month was the final 5K+ of the month. The first 15K hands (taking it on a straightline average basis - not just looking at net BBs after 15K hands) was lukewarm compared to your expectations apparently. How are you making conclusions about your game based on this? How are you making conclusions about your game based on 20K hands?

Catt 09-30-2005 12:50 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Come on, dude.

[ QUOTE ]
Wanna know what I've learned?

12k hands means absolutely nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

But 20.5K hands of "running bad" means something about your game? ("I know why I've run like crap this month")

[/ QUOTE ]

No, and I'm not discounting that you are winning. But don't try to peg a winrate after 13k hands, it's just bad news. Wanna know my winrate after 13k hands at $10/20? 6.15 BB/100. That's all I was trying to say.

I do think me running breakeven after 20k hands is more than just bad luck though. And I'm saying what I've done to my play that I think is part of this break even stretch.

Nothing more.

[/ QUOTE ]

My last post cross-posted with yours.

If you're not looking at your earn this month, upon what basis are you concluding that you're running bad? If you're not looking at your earn, why post a results graph?

My whole point is that this thread seems to be about the fact that you didn't earn as much as you felt you deserved this month. I never put stock in winrate over something like 20K hands -- why are you?

TheMetetron 09-30-2005 12:51 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
I understand Catt and that's true. I guess I just feel like my game has deteriorated from where it was.

How much of this break even stretch is attributable to that doesn't much matter... what it has done is made me look at my game and find spots where I feel I'm not playing my best.

I guess the thread title is misleading. It should be "I've run like crap, here are some things in my game I don't like after trying to find a reason for running like crap (though I know they aren't necessarily too correlated)."

Unfortunately that was just a bit too long to fit [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I know what you are trying to say though.


Edit: That stupid graph post that guy had also was part of what made me think breakeven for 20k shouldn't be happening that much unless I've dropped the level of my game.

Catt 09-30-2005 12:59 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
I find if I don't review my play regularly, including when I am winning way more than I can reasonable expect over long stretches of time, then I review my play over big hand chunks with mediocre to poor results and find all sorts of things wrong with my game that need attending to. If I review my play regularly, even when winning more than I can expect, I still find all sorts of things that need attending to. By doing the latter regularly I avoid overdoing the former sporadically. All I'm saying.

TheMetetron 09-30-2005 01:01 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
Point taken and thanks.

Monty Cantsin 09-30-2005 01:11 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
[ QUOTE ]
another thing i have come to realize is that i seem to play tons better when i am not trying to have the right stats or play a certain style. i play well when i just analyze each situation and make my decision based on sound poker play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the arrow that split the arrow that hit the bullseye.

/mc

NLSoldier 09-30-2005 01:14 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
[ QUOTE ]
funny, i am going in the opposite direction. back to the tag that got me here.

[/ QUOTE ]

yep. i played some full today and it felt like it forced me to play a lot better.

sweetjazz 09-30-2005 02:09 AM

Re: I know why I\'ve run like crap this month...
 
I agree with what Victor said and just want to mention a few extra points.

As I move up in limits, I find my biggest weakness by far is spewing chips. I fail to adjust to the fact that, even though the players may still be poor, their range of hands generally is a little tighter and their ability to get value out of their strong hands increases. It's really important for me to really focus on each hand I play -- when I do that I do really well, but when I don't I overplay hands, put myself in tough spots, etc.

For me, my keys are to focus on my play 100% (no distractions or half-hearted effort) and to achieve a zenlike state where I don't care about the actual results of the hand. Whether to be more on the TAGgish or LAGgish comes naturally when I am doing this -- often the table conditions dictate which style to play and often I try to pick my marginal spots based on what I am observing.

Just my $0.02.

EDIT: Also, I like the idea of mixing it up between full ring and shorthanded. I've been doing it lately, and I think I have now reached a point where playing full ring is helping my SH game. (Originally, like with most people, it was the other way around -- SH was much more useful for my full ring game.)


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