Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

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Even if you get your free card, the weak turn play may induce you to make a bad river fold.

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Dont forget that you have the button. Unless it's checked to the cutoff who bets, you'll often have the ability on the river to learn whether there were overcalls, before you make your decision.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

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I think there are other reasons for checking this flop. If UTG leads on the turn, it's safe to say you are behind and it's just a matter of how good you think your outs are. If MP leads the turn, it could very easily be a stab which you can raise and blow out the other players in the hand. There's no read on BB but you can see the other players action and react accordingly. Betting and getting called on this flop doesn't tell you much. Even if you get your free card, the weak turn play may induce you to make a bad river fold.

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Yeah - this is what I was getting at re: location of PFR. If he was UTG and the blinds had cleared out so he was first action, I'd be more inclined to bet and not be at all unhappy if he C/R and clears the field for me. I want to knock out as many players as possible, and I think the best way to do so is to engage the help of the PFR -- since he's on our right, there is some chance that the turn gets checked to him and he bets, and we can then decide to pop it if we like facing the field with two cold.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

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I bet that because of a few reasons. It is very possible that we have the best hand.

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Gross overstatement. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

I'd prefer to check this flop and take a free turn. My default on a rag board is to bet a naked AK with up to 2 opponents, and check with 3 or more opponents.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

I check. It's incredibly unlikely you're ahead with so many players. Given it was 3-bet preflop, it's also incredibly unlikely anyone will fold because the pot it just too big.

The only reason I can think of for a bet is to get a free card on the turn. I wouldn't hold my breath on that though. Between the odds of a check/raise on the flop and a donk bet on the turn when someone makes something, I'd save the 1/2BB and take the free card now.

Also, if you bet now when you're behind, you're almost committed to peeling the turn as well due to pot odds.

If you take the free card now, you save yourself 1.5BB if the turn is a blank because you can safely fold the turn.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

Relative position to PFR makes me check.

In fact, I'm checking this a lot.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

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If you take the free card now, you save yourself 1.5BB if the turn is a blank because you can safely fold the turn.

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Assuming a relatively blank turn, what odds would you need to call a bet on the turn? I only ask because it's likely to be between 7 and 8.5-1 on the turn here and I think that's close. I would call. As I said before, I'd raise an MP bet turn bet a lot of the time.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

You are ahead often enough to bet it.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

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If you take the free card now, you save yourself 1.5BB if the turn is a blank because you can safely fold the turn.

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Assuming a relatively blank turn, what odds would you need to call a bet on the turn? I only ask because it's likely to be between 7 and 8.5-1 on the turn here and I think that's close. I would call. As I said before, I'd raise an MP bet turn bet a lot of the time.

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You've got 6 outs, but you can't value them at full value. If you say 4 outs, you need 10:1 and you won't have it.

If you end up in a position where a very aggressive player on your right bets, it might be worth raising under the theory the aggressive player is semi-bluffing and the pot is big enough to warrant driving out hands behind out.

Raising the turn with AK though with 3 other players is really walking the cliff of "maniacal LAG" though. You'd need to have a high degree of confidence in the play.

Re: Common Situation: AKo overcard play
 

if I bet this flop, it's primarily for a free card. the value considerations are very miniscule IMHO, and you need quite the parlay to occur versus 3 other players. I haven't played enough 10/20 to know whether trying this primarily for free card reasons is +EV, but so far it seems there's a [censored] load more aggression and I'd get c/r'd or donked a lot.