Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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i think you've got to bet-fold.

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Do you guys also bet-fold if a K or a Q hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Makes sense. thx

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think you've got to bet-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you guys also bet-fold if a K or a Q hits?

Thanks,
Cartman

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These make gutshots and oesd more probable so I may be a little more prone to call down. These become even more read dependent.

If the turn puts a flush draw, though, I call down without reads.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q. There are tons of guys at 5/10 who are guaranteed to put a raise in at some point postflop when they are heads up after raising preflop, whether or not they were 3-bet preflop. Unless the opponent is the straightforward type who would only raise with a hand better than our JJ, then not going to the showdown with only one overcard on the board seems like a mistake.

The problem is that I think it is very possible that villain would raise this turn with any pocket pair, AT, or even an adopted gutshot or open-ended as well as with the hands that we beat. The risk of folding the best hand seems not to be worth the extra value we get by continuing to bet.

I think if we check the turn, it is very likely that we will get a turn bet out of him with worse hands to represent the overcard. If he does check behind, it is more likely that we get a river call from a hand that may not have called both the turn and river had we kept firing.

This of course all depends on the aggressiveness of our opponent which, of course and as in this example, we didn't know. That said, it seems to me like the best solution is:

1) Bet-fold against opponents with below average aggression
2) Check-call both streets against opponents with average to above average aggression
3) Bet and call down against very aggressive opponents

What do you guys think?

Can you explain where my conclusions are flawed?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have thought quite a bit about this hand and the more I do so the less I like bet fold whether the turn card is an A, a K, or a Q. There are tons of guys at 5/10 who are guaranteed to put a raise in at some point postflop when they are heads up after raising preflop, whether or not they were 3-bet preflop. Unless the opponent is the straightforward type who would only raise with a hand better than our JJ, then not going to the showdown with only one overcard on the board seems like a mistake.

The problem is that I think it is very possible that villain would raise this turn with any pocket pair, AT, or even an adopted gutshot or open-ended as well as with the hands that we beat. The risk of folding the best hand seems not to be worth the extra value we get by continuing to bet.

I think if we check the turn, it is very likely that we will get a turn bet out of him with worse hands to represent the overcard. If he does check behind, it is more likely that we get a river call from a hand that may not have called both the turn and river had we kept firing.

This of course all depends on the aggressiveness of our opponent which, of course and as in this example, we didn't know. That said, it seems to me like the best solution is:

1) Bet-fold against opponents with below average aggression
2) Check-call both streets against opponents with average to above average aggression
3) Bet and call down against very aggressive opponents

What do you guys think?

Can you explain where my conclusions are flawed?

Thanks,
Cartman

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I don't get the distinction between Nos. 2 and 3. I was expecting there to be an aggression threshold above which the best strategy switched from betting to checking. Why are you bet-calling against the really aggro guys? It seems like they would be the ones from whom a check would extract the max value (b/c they will bet-bet hands with no outs, etc)

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

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Why are you bet-calling against the really aggro guys?

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Because they are so likely to raise with worse hands that it is best to bet to induce the raise. I am talking about guys who are aggressive enough that they are almost certain to raise with any pocket pair, T, adopted draw, or even just Ace high (in the case of a K or Q turn). I think betting gets the most value out of these guys.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

If these guys are raising with all these hands, aren't they guaranteed to bet with literally any 2 cards if you check, though? Just off the top of my head it seems like earning 1 bet on the turn every time is more profitable than earning 2 bets the times they have a reasonable hand (by their standards).

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

I think you are misunderstanding my assessment of "very aggressive". I am talking about guys who are almost guaranteed to raise this turn with anything they raised with preflop, either because they can't resist a semibluff or because they can't bear to fold if they have nothing so they might as well bluff raise to represent the paired overcard. A guy would have to be a massive overplayer or borderline maniac for me to take this line.

Cartman

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

yep i think you've pretty much got it down cartman. i just assume total unknowns have below average aggression, so i'm bet-folding there. most unknowns aren't free showdown or bluff raising the turn much.

Re: Bet-fold this turn or fetal tuck?
 

Just wondering, would you take the same line with QQ/KK?