Two Plus Two Older Archives

Two Plus Two Older Archives (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/index.php)

- Micro-Limits (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/forumdisplay.php?f=33)

- - stupid bet? (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=342806)

[ QUOTE ]
I think the villian may fold a hand like AK/AQ and there's a chance we have a better hand - LRR's are extremely unpredictable, I wouldn't be surprised if he was betting the whole time with just the ace/gutshot (I was against one of these last night). It would be very difficult for anyone to raise this bet without a T, especially since there are 4 players who have been drawing since the flop. It's also a value bet against KQ/KJ/QJ which are possible lrr hands. If the villian raises, the most likely hand I'd give him is a set or straight AA-TT and it would be a fold imho.

Actually though, the more I think about it, the more I'm thinking check/fold may be a better line here. With 3 callers on this board it seems very likely someone has a T here and since any T is the nuts they aren't folding. I'd probably check and call if the action is bet/fold/fold/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea with 4 others in the pot, someone is going to raise our bet a large % of the time, I was just wondering why everyone thought that we should lead the river.

[ QUOTE ]
Yea with 4 others in the pot, someone is going to raise our bet a large % of the time, I was just wondering why everyone thought that we should lead the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hehe.. It's the fire first, ask questions later instinct [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

My approach here was to fold to any raise. I figured a check / call was going to lose it almost 100% of the time, but I thought there may be some slightly better chance of getting everyone to fold to a bet. Check/ folding would be such a painful thing to do in this large pot.
I thought I'd try take my tiny % chance, although it's very hard to say whether everyone would fold the 1 in 15 times necessary to make the bet profitable.

i figure at best you get a T calling and he is surprised he is not splitting with you. The likely hood of all hands folding being worse approaches 0 here.

Thing is, UTG is likely to be a bad player (he did LRR after all) so he'll probably make a crying call on the river. If he were a good player, then it depends on your reads of the other 3 players. How likely are they to call down with nothing? Do they frequently go to showdown and then fold? Do they raise top pair hands?

If you check, you may get the information for free. Say UTG bets and one of the limpers raises. Now you have an easy fold. UTG bets and one of the limpers calls is probably the most difficult situation and is read dependent. If it gets checked through, that's fine too, you may have had an extremely thin value bet.

#1[ QUOTE ]
The likely hood of all hands folding being worse approaches 0 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
#2 - The likelyhood of any hand calling being worse IS 0.
#2 makes this a pure bluff. It doesn't matter whether you have 23 at this point.
#1 makes this pure bluff highly -EV.

You've still got 4 villians with you here. In my experinence at low limits. If there is a 4 straight on board and it requires anything T+ to complete - it's a 100% lock that someone has made it, especially when any T had odds to chase the whole way. At low limits, AK\AQ will probably make a crying call anyway.