Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

Wow, I guess I'm missing some value bets (well, I knew that was the case but its hard to identify where). Good to know.

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

The river is an easy value bet because you are will get called by a 5, a 6, a straight draw that became a pair of 7's, and some Ace high's.

I think the flop raise is fine if he is aggressive enough that you can call down even if he 3-bets or if he is passive enough that a 3-bet means at least a J. I think the important street here is the turn. I routinely check behind here and call a river bet because I don't really feel like I can call down if checkraised but, since I have a diamond I would really hate to fold also.

Cartman

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

If you are planning to check behind a lot of turns then it makes the flop raise REALLY counterproductive as you end up letting him to the river for 33% cheaper since he would have almost always kept betting worse hands.

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
looks good to me.

i like the river valuebet/fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
This isn’t a spot where I’d value bet, and value betting is a real weak part of my game right now, and I would really like to understand why this is a good spot.

So, if this is a good value bet, then you need to assume as long as you don’t get chk-raised more than you get called by worse hands it’s +EV.

Given that river chk-raises are pretty rare, it’s a good value bet.

Yes?

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are planning to check behind a lot of turns then it makes the flop raise REALLY counterproductive as you end up letting him to the river for 33% cheaper since he would have almost always kept betting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly right and I hadn't previously realized this. I was actually only planning on checking behind on a diamond turn and betting and folding to a raise on any non-diamond turn, does that still make a flop raise incorrect?

Thanks,
Cartman

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

You have to take into account that he bluff/value bets the river with worse hands MUCH more often after you check behind the turn than if you call his bets on two streets. Not saying that swings the pendulum or anything, but it needed to be pointed out.

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

I did consider this but decided this guy is just as likely to bluff the riv if you just call him down vs. raise flop/check turn.

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

It is a good fold.

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If you are planning to check behind a lot of turns then it makes the flop raise REALLY counterproductive as you end up letting him to the river for 33% cheaper since he would have almost always kept betting worse hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are exactly right and I hadn't previously realized this. I was actually only planning on checking behind on a diamond turn and betting and folding to a raise on any non-diamond turn, does that still make a flop raise incorrect?

Thanks,
Cartman

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Hmm, I'm not sure but as I said before I am very wary against these types of any line that can easily jeaopardize my seeing a showdown with a showdownable hand. Therefore, the part of this I dislike is planning to fold to a turn c/r, since you will be folding the best hand a fair bit of the time. I would rather not give him the option of checkraising me (assuming he is not clever enough to use the screwplay).

Re: 10/20: a river laydown - 99
 

Thx for the input everyone.

FWIW I think the river is a very easy value-bet, tons of worse hands will call. the 2 points were regarding A) folding to the raise(very aggressive opponent) and B) my flop raise. Villain will donk all sorts of stuff here, including a complete bluff. I judged that my hand was strong enough, and the pot was big enough, to start raising for value.

Danenania expressed concern that we would be shutting down bluffs that would bet the turn (and maybe river!) while opening ourselves up to a fold with a showdownable hand. It's a valid concern - anyone else care to weigh in on this situation?

Surf