Re: On the river in my boat
 

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Well we're not too worried about MP1, right? 55 is his only probable hand that beats us, but there's a ton of others that he might have too, like JT, Jxd, 56.

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I think there's almost always 3 boats floating in this river.

MP1 hasn't slowed down since he saw the flop. It's likely he had a set from the flop, but maaaaaybe he was capping all the way w/ 2 pair and made his boat on the river. Most likely a set though, because QT says he's passive.

CO has JJ or TT or 55, all the time.

I'm having a hard time coming up with a plausible scenario in which QT is winning. MP1 has 65 and CO has AA (and thinks the river counterfeited his opponents' two pair)? Or maybe CO just suffered a severe case of stupidity-tilt and is bluffing at the pot because he's tired of his AA losing every-damn-party-poker-is-rigged time?

With 30 seconds to decide, I'm panicking and calling this river. But you're probably looking at a capped pot and 10-1 pot odds and, with time to think about it, you're not good anywhere near 9% of the time and can safely fold this.

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This is exactly where I was in this hand. First time in my life I ever wanted to to abuse the disconnect protect feature! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I don't think I'm generally good here even 5% of the time and I'm getting 10:1 almost certainly.

So...I folded.

MP1 caps, CO calls

MP1: J5
CO: KK

After my blood preasure came back down, I still like my play and feel it was +EV. I have no idea what went on with CO...misclick, pissed at rigged poker or what...

P.S. Anyone have a match?

Re: On the river in my boat
 

I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substance, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substane, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

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Shant:

I hear you. I'm not going to be an obstinate, making this post only to defend my action; however, I will say this. I'm persuaded that I just earned money in that hand.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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<font color="blue">Jason:</font> i call and i have some math to say why
<font color="blue">Jason:</font> do i have to post it ? i'm lazy

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I'm hoping he'll unlazy soon and post it.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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I don't like your fold just because people online do such stupid stuff, and I'd expect a JJ or TT to raise somewhere in there, maybe not on the flop, but sometime on the turn. I know there is no math to this or % or even much substane, but I'd be much more upset about laying down the best hand than I was about calling a few more bets on the river with a full house.

Edit: I guess CO put you both on JT.

Also, I'd like to hear what Jason would do on this river because he folds a lot more than I do.

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Shant:

I hear you. I'm not going to be an obstinate, making this post only to defend my action; however, I will say this. I'm persuaded that I just earned money in that hand.

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Q,

Not going to argue with your logic or your math. But I would like to inject some psychology into this. The play was definetly weird. But I have seen bad players go apeshit, with weird stuff before.

I am not going to go into whether I would play the hand differently or not. Just this. With my state of mind (this is just about me) it is better for my overall game if I don't make this fold. Simple because, if I am wrong... I might have to stop playing for the night. If I don't stop playing I probably won't be playing as well. I can guarantee you at some point over the next 50 hands I would tilt that 1-2BB away.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

I assumed CO had JJ or 55 and MP1 I thought could have any two card combination of J or 10 or 6 or 5. While I think you are behind the thought of not winning this is more terrifying to me than the thought of calling this down, even for four bets. Though three is preferable.

I really can't decide if you fold was good or not. Reading the whole thread ruined any objectivity I could have offered. Tough hand.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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<font color="blue">Jason:</font> i call and i have some math to say why
<font color="blue">Jason:</font> do i have to post it ? i'm lazy

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I'm hoping he'll unlazy soon and post it.

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bobbyi once had a great post on folding the river in big pots....I really liked the post and thought of it while this hand was finishing up. However, I can't find it for the life of me right now. Sthief was in and then said bobbyi was quickly becoming one of his favorit posters...can't remember which name Josh was using there though...

Anyone know the one I'm talking about. Would just like to read it again.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

Your fold here is the antithesis of big pot strategy, and I really think that it is the worst of your 3 options. Your hand is absolutely worth a call here in this monster of a pot, and maybe even a cap. Neither of your opponents is going anywhere, and you don't have to lay odds on a 5 bet. So the question comes down to how often your hand is good, and that number is without a doubt above 10%, maybe as high as 40% or 60%

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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maybe as high as 40% or 60%

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ai-yoh.

Re: On the river in my boat
 

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Your fold here is the antithesis of big pot strategy, and I really think that it is the worst of your 3 options. Your hand is absolutely worth a call here in this monster of a pot, and maybe even a cap. Neither of your opponents is going anywhere, and you don't have to lay odds on a 5 bet. So the question comes down to how often your hand is good, and that number is without a doubt above 10%, maybe as high as 40% or 60%

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Your post here is the antithesis of good posting strategy. Next time you decide to say something authoritative and full of disputable statements just don't and instead try offering support for your claims.