Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

In Zjustin blog he did some type of 1000 sng challenge at the 215 level, and ended with somthign like 13% roi. While I'm sure he was running somewhat good, its hard to believe his true ROI is 6% or lower.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

Im not sure if ZJ was running good to acheive 13% ROI. All the best sng players I know get over 10% ROI in the $215s.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

I guess i suck then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Anyways, I believe that if you are actually good at the early and mid game, which I am not, you could easily get 12% roi. The problem is that I learned to be a rock in the early levels so now I am going back and trying to learn it. So far, since I havent been a total rock, i have had 13% roi. I hope I can keep it up so I can consider myself "good" too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]

Im not sure if ZJ was running good to acheive 13% ROI. All the best sng players I know get over 10% ROI in the $215s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not Irieguy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

If a reasonable person plays 1000 SNGs and has a 12% ROI, and then goes on a horrible run and drops 37 buy-ins over 50 SNGs... what will his answer be if you ask him "what is your ROI?"

He will say 12%. Even though it is not.

I see it all the time, on this forum and in person.

I see honest, professional, poker-playing friends respond the same way.

My 6% number is a REAL number. It counts misclicks, internet disconnects, drunken evenings, bad decisions, family deaths, and a breakup with your girlfriend. It counts a bad streak that may be worse than what you think you deserve. It also assumes that the player multi-tables.

Life and statistics happen.

Many players will play a lot of $215s and have better than 6% ROI. I know several with >10% for a long time.

But if you want to know what the true, expected long-term ROI of a great player over 1 year, or 10,000 $215 SNGs will be... it will be closer to my 6% than to any number suggested by other zealots.

Anyone who vigorously disagrees with this will not be around to argue the fact in 12 months. (a side bet I have yet to lose)

Irieguy

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM.

Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM.

Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you bet the cost of an expensive lunch at a nice restaurant?...(No Yugo) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

How much time do me and ZeeJustin and the others who disagreed with the 6% figure have until its 12 months from when it was originally posted?

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

Yeah, that would be a good sized bet.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that would be a good sized bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the amount it would take for me to attend?

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Yugoslav
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