Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

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Bet-fold is probably the right play here. I think the flop 3-bet from UTG could still be AK ("free card"), and the turn follow-up was because the board paired. There's no way that AK is going to raise this river, and you don't want AK to check behind. If he's holding that, he's very likely going to pay off the river donkbet because the pot is so large. If you get raised on the end, you're almost certainly against AA/KK (sometimes QQ, but even that hand has a tough time raising the river donkbet).

Check-folding is better than check-calling since AK doesn't bet this river very often. But I don't like either one so much.

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The preflop capper went passive postflop. It was the button who woke up on the flop.

Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

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UTG isn't doing the betting. The button is.

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I suck at posting. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

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UTG isn't doing the betting. The button is.

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I suck at posting. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

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But your insight is always top notch quality.

Is my post above with the list anywhere close to accurate?

Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

I think absent reads, bet-fold is really really bad in these games. I can't but into words how bad I think it is. The post is 14BB, you are telling me that there is not a 1/14 chance that you will be raised by a worse hand?

Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

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Well, I've been thinking about this. This post maybe will be half right, but I'll get the discussion going. This is very important to understand to be a good winning player.

Bet Fold
1) You have to have a good hand. (Overpair, TPTK, etc)
2) Your opponents will call with weaker hands if you bet, but check behind with the same hands
3) They wont bluff raise the river
4) He will bet hands that beat you if he is checked to.

Check Call

1) You have enough of a hand that you can't fold, but its still marginal
2) Worse hands have a difficult time calling a bet
3) Better hands may check behind
4) You may induce a bluff

Check Fold

1) You have a holding that is not strong at all.
2) Your opponents have shown that you are beat on previous streets

Bet/Call

1) You have enough of a hand that betting will show a profit.
2) You dont want worse hands to check behind
3) Its possible for him to bluff raise the river
4) He may raise hands that you beat (top 2 pair vs your bottom set)

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Looks pretty good. There's an entire chapter about heads up at the end in Theory of Poker. It's definitely worth reading if you haven't read it in a while (or haven't read it ever).

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edit: I have no opinion thus far.

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Fix this. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

The river, and results
 

So, I checked, planning to call one, fold to two. I was mostly worried about WTF UTG was trying to pull, as I figured that the Button was on TPGK, so I probably had him beat. Even if UTG somehow made two pair, I had that beat with the paired board. But it made me really nervous that the PF capper had gone underground for the flop and turn (MUBS probably, seeing FPS in another player).

The river went check-check-check, and Button showed T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for the flopped 2 pair. UTG, on the other hand, and remember that he capped preflop, flipped over...get this...33! [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I posted this hand for 2 reasons: one, I thought the results were funny. Two, it illustrates why I hate bet/fold on the river, and yeah it's results-oriented, but the idea behind it isn't - I'm pretty sure that if I'd bet UTG would have folded and Button would have raised, and I'd be stuck folding the best hand, because MICRO PLAYERS ARE ONLY PLAYING THEIR CARDS NOT YOURS. I'm actually very surprised that Button didn't bet the river.

Re: JJ OOP...river line
 

I would rank them as the following:

check/call > bet/call > bet/fold >>>>> check/fold

I advocate the check/call because I think we have a good enough hand to showdown and not a good enough read (no read actually) on villain to say we can throw this away if we bet and he raises, and I don't want to pay two bets to see the river. There are several hand possibilites that villain could have that we were WB on the flop, namely TT and 97. There's also the less likely possibilities of T6 and 86. Finally, we can't exclude the chance that we're facing a donk who cold called twice and came out firing with AA-QQ.

EDIT: Forgot to mention T8, which is conceivable based on flop play - not something you or I would cold call twice with PF. In this case, you counterfeited him on the turn and it would be a shame to fold the best hand.