Re: Results.
 

I wasn't looking to hit my 2-outer. I was going to represent a different hand on the turn. Hitting the 2-outer changed things. The problem is that I'm not sure (enough) that those outs are good.

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

Very easy river call.

But from your flop reasoning, by calling a guy who had raised preflop with two huge overcards on the flop to try to steal the pot on the turn, why not just go ahead and try to steal it right there on the flop? I agree with you that his flop bet seemed weak, why not raise his $2 bet up to $6 or $7 right there? If reraised you put it down and it's cheaper than calling the $2 and then trying to steal on the turn. You only had two cards that could help you and with the A and the K already out it's not like you're going to get a scare card on the turn to bluff at...

Re: Results.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I wasn't looking to hit my 2-outer. I was going to represent a different hand on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

What hand are you going to represent? and are you going to represent it with a min-raise (since this is how you play your big hands)?

I think delayed bluffs like this will get you burnt generally in this game. If you have a specific read then, great, go for it. In a game that is populated by people who call too much, however, trying delayed bluffs on the first orbit(ish) is probably a -EV play, JMO.

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

Ridiculous, you called the flop, hit the perfect card on the turn, and you're looking to fold on a harmless river? I see 2-pair a lot more than AA or KK here. Instant. Call. Every. Time.

Re: Results.
 

I just wasn't convinced that he had an ace or a king (turns out he had both). I don't look to bluff a lot at this level. This was just one of those hands that I wasn't ready to throw away on the flop. I called to see what he'd do next.

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

I realize I butchered this hand. I was indecisive and I misplayed it on all streets (except preflop). I wanted to post it to learn from it (and punish myself).

FMP.

Re: call or fold this set on the river? *DELETED*
 

Post deleted by DoomSlice

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

I meant preflop. I edited my post.

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I realize I butchered this hand. I was indecisive and I misplayed it on all streets (except the flop). I wanted to post it to learn from it (and punish myself).

[/ QUOTE ]

That's cool. I hope I'm not coming off too blunt, that's not my intention...

[ QUOTE ]
I just wasn't convinced that he had an ace or a king (turns out he had both). I don't look to bluff a lot at this level. This was just one of those hands that I wasn't ready to throw away on the flop. I called to see what he'd do next.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is hard to justify. This guy raised from UTG (and got cold called) and then he then led out for half pot on a AKx flop. What is about this guys play that says "I have less than 2nd pair." Now, if you had been here for a whole bunch of orbits with him, and you had come to realise that he wasn't positional with his raises and he always leads out for full-pot when he hits, then this would be a fine chance to take a stab at the pot. But you've only been here for one orbit, you can't possibly have that kind of information... you should be reverting to what you believe a typical player will do.

Now, IIRC, a typical-model of a $50NL player would be someone who is no more than marginally positionally aware, who over-values Ax and likes to get to showdown. If you revert to that model of the player, in these kinds of circumstances, until you see enough of them to know better, not believing them on this flop is probably a mistake and expecting to be able to take pots off them is probably also a mistake.

I think you'll make more money by not bluffing at all until you know who can be bluffed. It's not as much fun, but weak-tight is probably close to the optimal strategy in that game. JMO.

Re: call or fold this set on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
That's cool. I hope I'm not coming off too blunt, that's not my intention...

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm good.

I play every night for at least 2 hours. This was just one of those hands that I played badly, lost focus, etc. I'm a winning player at this level and I don't normally bluff. My main reason for posting was to see if there was any way I could fold this river.