Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

Don't discount a stupidly played AK or another AA. Call it.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

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I have only 30 hands on the guy and he's statistically a LAG...

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But you can be ~95% certain that you are beat. Really terrible fold.

Just wanted to add that I often cap preflop with a wider variety of hands when 3-bet by a player who looks like he can do handreading - but relies too much to it. Although I play mainly shorthanded

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

Omg the river wasn't even a heart.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

You have to call this.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Omg the river wasn't even a heart.

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A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] would be tragic. Eeegah.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I'm glad my stomach was empty. Better dry heaves at 0630 hours, than full-blown hurling into my keyboard at 0745.

I'm sure it's all been said, but I think you're seeing A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or the like here often enough to make this river a call.

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...after the 15BB rake I'm looking at 10:1 odds of getting money, while the pot odds are only about 1:7.6.

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Huh? Unless 'Stars grabs 8BB from the pot once it exceeds 15BB (actually, I suppose 7.9BB), I don't see where these numbers are coming from. Do you mean that calling his 3-bet on the turn and then calling a river bet costs you 2BB, and working from there?

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

At first blush this looks like a good fold against a normal, reasonable player. It sure looks like he has JJ or QQ for the made set or KK for the overpair which makes a set on the river. However, there is one other reasonable holding...A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. An aggressive player who was running hot and feeling lucky might three-bet the Turn with those 12 outs to the nuts plus 6 outs to TPTK.

Calling for one more bet seems warrented in the event he has that A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], plus you get to look him up. The odds are great at 14:1.

Edit: After reading the thread, I agree Villian may also have had AA (although statistically small chance since you had two As) and A:hearts: Q:hearts is somewhat possible.

I wouldn't say this is a terrible fold as I'd guess your beat 80-90% of the time. But I'd say your probably good close enough to 1 in 14 times to make calling somewhat +EV plus the value of looking him up is worth something.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Huh? Unless 'Stars grabs 8BB from the pot once it exceeds 15BB (actually, I suppose 7.9BB), I don't see where these numbers are coming from. Do you mean that calling his 3-bet on the turn and then calling a river bet costs you 2BB, and working from there?

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If we narrow the Villain down to AA-JJ, then we lose with KK, QQ and JJ and split with AA. The best we can do is split, so our pot odds are cut in half.

I did miss A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], though, and while it's a really screwey play I guess someone might do it once in a while. I have no idea how often AQs is capped here; I don't think I've ever seen it from a typical Stars player, but capping preflop is so rare that I really don't know.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

I didn't even bother with the math, but no way I'm folding to one bet on the river.

Re: Warning: Do not view hand on an empty stomach.
 

next time you plan to play a hand this way make it nines raise preflop and flop quads. At least then I wouldn't have lost my lunch it'd just be a brag post as long as you didn't fold the river there either.
Seriously I wanted to call this river when I read it just to protect you image and more important your sanity (at least whats left of it)