Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

I wouldn't raise the turn. You say fairly tight and straightforward. Good chance he has the case ace if he shows aggression. However, he might have QQ or JJ or even another KK, so you have to call down. If you're putting in another raise it should be on the flop.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

UTG+2 re-raised on the flop. He must have something. He's not going to fold.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
UTG+2 re-raised on the flop. He must have something. He's not going to fold.

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So you think we are just gonna capp every street and win this pot 98% of the time? Welcome to the forums Fred [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

This is spewing. He plays straightforwardly and he's re-raised a pre-flop 3-bettor on a board of AAA. I would put his hand range at JJ,QQ,KK,A+. He has an Ace WAY more than 2% of the time after this action. He doesn't seem to be afraid of the Ace. Call it down.

On a different note, it seems silly to raise the flop and drive the 3rd player out. If you are ahead, your opponents are drawing very nearly dead. Don't force them out of the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet/raise all streets. He'll have an A only 2% of the time (maybe larger given he raised pf), but probably has a lower pair. If he wins 2% of the time, raising all streets averages 33 SB while calling all streets averages 23.5 SB.

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Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

2% is not even close to the amount of time he has the remaining ace. It's not even close before the flop action.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
On a different note, it seems silly to raise the flop and drive the 3rd player out. If you are ahead, your opponents are drawing very nearly dead. Don't force them out of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. Could go for the overcall on all streets.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

Also FWIW, at a live game when the type of opponent you describe 3-bets this flop after your preflop 3-bet and flop raise, anything but the nuts would surprise me.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

why don't we call the flop and hope sb hangs around? Call down the Tight ABC player?

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

From my previous post:

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If SB stays in I'd just call the whole way, bet if checked to. If SB folds I may still do the same.

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So yes, I agree.

Re: live 10/20 hand, pocket kings, 3 Aces on flop
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet/raise all streets. He'll have an A only 2% of the time (maybe larger given he raised pf), but probably has a lower pair. If he wins 2% of the time, raising all streets averages 33 SB while calling all streets averages 23.5 SB.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an extraordinarily myopic way to think about poker and probability and life.

Think. Conditional. Probability.

Do it.