Re: How to play this?
 

But your line was better in this particular case than the line I chose, because it would give you an extra 2 outs on the river ..

Re: How to play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
But your line was better in this particular case than the line I chose, because it would give you an extra 2 outs on the river ..

[/ QUOTE ]

So getting 5.6:1 you want to call with your two outer? I am no math wiz but the pots a little small for that. Calling down here is terrible and I mean terrible poker.

Re: How to play this?
 

No I was referring to Windsorkid's line of play; that is to check call until the end.
With this line it might be you're calling with the best hand when Villain does not have the 9. If he does have the 9 then you will still have 2 outs.

Re: How to play this?
 

I tend to agree a fold is the best play.

I don't think any hand can be "unlikely" because TAG was in BB. If he had entered the pot voluntarily then it is a much easier fold IMO because the possible weaker hands he may bet he is much less likely to have.

Depending on the game, with this board I would have a wider range of hands I would bet that the OP would beat than just A4 and I consider myself a typical TAG (Maybe a little more LAG on the flop than most typical TAGs).

My real question is if you make the decision not to fold which is better?
As I said earlier, I think folding>raising>calling.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: How to play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think any hand can be "unlikely" because TAG was in BB.

[/ QUOTE ]
53 becomes unlikely because Hero has 55. I doubt a TAG bets a 2 into 4 people. You're hoping he has A4, a discounted 53, or badly played overcards? I think this is a flop fold.

Re: How to play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Are you saying if you are said TAG your only betting this with a 9 or a pair higher than 5's??

He was in BB an was able to check his option preflop. He can have any two cards. Any overpair he would/should raise preflop so I would rule those out.

I would assume most TAG's would lead with any 9, any pocket pair > 4, some 4's & 2's, most straight draws and in some cases overcards given the raggedy nature of the board.

I couldn't argue with a flop fold (although doing it every time in this situation seems a bit weak). I think a raise is better than a call alot of the time.
You can only be calling if you think you may have the best hand, as you do not have odds to be trying to hit anything. Raising should only cost you one small extra bet but does three important things that calling does not:
<ul type="square">[*] gives you more information on where you stand. If you are 3-bet you can get away from this.[*] gives you a possibility to take a free card.[*] gives you a chance to win the pot right here.[/list]Turn play seems pretty straight-forward to me, I play the same.

If your not folding, how is calling not worse than raising? I think this is a case of folding&gt;raising&gt;calling but I may be wrong. Thoughts?

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
In this particular situation vs this particular opponent you should fold every single time. Will you sometimes lay down the best hand? Yes. That is becuz no strategy in this game works every time. All you can do is play the percentages and folding the flop is the best percentage play. When you combine the fact that a tight player is betting into a field of 4 opponents(this makes a semibluff less likely) on a rainbow board(again semibluff less likey) and the fact that if your hand is best it still may not hold up until the river, and if you are in the lead you may get outplayed and fold the best hand since your holding is marginal, and the fact that when you are trailing your crippled drawing to 2 outs, and finally the fact that this pot is still relatively small.....you have an easy fold.

Re: How to play this?
 

Just fold the flop. If he's a Tag he's not betting a hand here that doesn't beat a pair of fives. There are boards you can make this play on, this isn't one of them. He's not betting a drawless flop into 5 players without a 9.

Re: How to play this?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to agree a fold is the best play.

I don't think any hand can be "unlikely" because TAG was in BB. If he had entered the pot voluntarily then it is a much easier fold IMO because the possible weaker hands he may bet he is much less likely to have.

Depending on the game, with this board I would have a wider range of hands I would bet that the OP would beat than just A4 and I consider myself a typical TAG (Maybe a little more LAG on the flop than most typical TAGs).

My real question is if you make the decision not to fold which is better?
As I said earlier, I think folding&gt;raising&gt;calling.

Dopey [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
Raising is better than calling cuz you may be able to make the tag lay down a weak 9 on the turn. A good player will lay this hand down unimproved on the turn. Also raising the flop will save you money when youre trailing if your line is raise flop, bet turn, check river. Saves money compared to call flop, call turn, call river. And you also save money vs the call, call, call line, when you raise the flop, bet the turn and get checkraised and fold, assuming the tag doesnt checkraise bluff the turn more than optimally. So your folding&gt;raising&gt;calling idea is correct.

Thanks for your replies
 

Your replies were most illuminating. I had not spent enough thought on folding the flop, this must be a leak in my game.

I tried to put this problem into numbers.
When Villain has for instance Ah9s, I have about 11% when I call to the river according to Pokerstove. When I raise now, the turn and check the river I will invest 4SB to win a possible 13SB; I need 4/13, 30%, to do this. So I'm 20% short when Villain is assured to hold a 9.

This means that about 20% of the time Villain should not have a 9 when he bets to make it correct not to fold. Actually I need a little more, because Villain might outdraw me even when he does not have the 9; let's say that more than 25% of the time that Villain bets in this situation he should not have a 9.

Is that the case here? I'm not sure but I tend to agree with most of you that probably it's not.

Re: How to play this?
 

I think a TAG may bet any 4 on this board and possibly even bottom pair plus overcard or even A3 + bd flush draw. This is a decent board to play aggressively with anything you feel you'll have the odds to draw to. That being said, I don't really mind just giving up on the flop since probably half of the hands the opponent bets have you beat and the other half have quite a few outs and it's not much of a pot yet. I think if you do choose to continue contrary to what some are saying an argument can be made for just calling the flop and raising the turn and taking a free showdown if called.